After his visit to Cairo.. When will Erdogan visit Damascus?!

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi (right) while receiving his Turkish counterpart, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (French)

After a decade-long rupture between the two countries, which included many hostile political positions and mutual negative statements towards each of them due to the other’s regional policies, President Erdogan headed to Cairo on an official visit for one day, a visit that is expected to have broad positive repercussions. The scope covers many regional files and issues that require the cooperation of the two countries, especially those in which their interests are intertwined, as is the case in the events in Gaza, the situation in Libya, Sudan, and the Eastern Mediterranean file.

Love after enmity

The positive attitude of the Turkish President towards Cairo, and his dealings with all this friendliness and welcome towards its President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, after a period of intense hatred that characterized their interaction on a personal level for years, which was reflected negatively on the political and diplomatic relations of the two countries, makes it logical to search for an answer to a question that has long occupied On the minds of many Turks and Syrians together: When will Erdogan visit Damascus?!

The Turkish reconciliation step with Cairo and seeking to improve its relations with it is not the first that Ankara has taken in order to end its regional differences, improve its political relations, and expand the volume of its political and economic cooperation with the countries of the region. It has previously restored its relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

It also resumed its diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates after years of estrangement and tension as a result of the difference in views on regional issues and their respective positions on the Arab Spring revolutions.

 Erdogan and Assad

From this standpoint, it seems natural and even logical for the file of Turkish-Syrian relations to be wide open, and for everyone to begin speculating about the date when official visits will be exchanged between the two countries, and Erdogan and Assad will meet face to face.

Especially since there was a strong family friendship between the two men for years, before the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, during which they exchanged private visits, spent holidays, and celebrated many social occasions together.

The regional reality, the tensions the region is going through, and the support the Syrian regime is receiving are all factors that confirm that Bashar al-Assad remains at the helm of power in Damascus, and that the issue of overthrowing him or trying to change him is no longer currently on the table, neither at the regional nor international levels.

Return of refugees

Rather, everyone began to search for mechanisms and ways through which they could put an end to the stage of division that the Syrian people are experiencing, end the suffering of the refugees, ensure their return to their cities and villages, restore their property that was confiscated by the regime, and ensure the participation of opposition factions in government, through holding fair elections. It is carried out in accordance with the provisions and articles of the new constitution that is currently being prepared in Geneva under the auspices of the United Nations.

Taken as a whole, they represent the same demands that Ankara sets as a condition for restoring its relations with Damascus, in addition to the issue of cooperation between them in the field of combating terrorism, to remove elements of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the People’s Protection Units (SDF) from northern Syria.

American withdrawal

This is the dilemma for which Washington presented a solution on a golden platter to both Ankara and Damascus, after it was revealed that there was a wide and intense discussion within American decision-making circles about the desire to withdraw the American forces present in eastern Syria, where Washington maintains 900 soldiers there. In addition to a collection of the latest weapons and various military equipment, after their presence there became unnecessary.

This opens the way for the possibility of creating a mechanism for Turkish forces in northern Syria to cooperate with both Russian and Syrian forces present in the region. To end the presence of these elements along the 932-kilometre border line between the two countries, achieve Ankara’s national security, and end its fears of exposing its territorial integrity to the risk of partition.

Which in turn means meeting the only Syrian demand from Ankara, which is to withdraw its forces from the areas where they are stationed in northern Syria, and setting a specific timetable for doing so, as Damascus considers them occupation forces, threatening its national security, and seizing part of its national territory.

Multiple gains

The truth of the matter is that there are a number of gains that cannot be ignored, which Ankara can achieve if it decides to resume its diplomatic relations with the Syrian regime, foremost of which, of course, is closing its Syrian refugee file. In order to achieve widespread popular demands that extend beyond the segment of secularists and Kemalists to the rest of the segments of Turkish society, especially those belonging to the two classes: the poor and the middle, who are suffering most in light of the continuing stifling economic crisis and the unprecedented rise in the prices of all goods, services, and housing.

In addition to the desire to end the existing tension in the border areas, which hinders trade exchange operations, which have always been the only way to achieve economic gains, a source of income for the residents of the region, and create job opportunities for thousands of young people through border transit trade.

There is a need to have diplomatic channels with Damascus, through which a Turkish-Syrian mechanism can be established for cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean gas file, which supports Turkey’s position, especially if it succeeds in demarcating its maritime borders with Cairo, which gives it greater ability to confront the American and European position. He refuses to share the region’s wealth with other countries under pressure from Greece and Cyprus.

Accelerate reconciliation

Regional and international developments, and the gains that Ankara can achieve, may accelerate the end of disputes, leading to a near return to Turkish-Syrian relations, and the exchange of official visits, in light of the advice of the two Turkish military and intelligence institutions, in which they called for the necessity of changing the policy that has been pursued over the years. The past in dealing with the Syrian file, after conducting in-depth studies on the international and regional situations, and their future repercussions on the Turkish internal political and economic situation.

In addition to the support of Moscow and Tehran, which Riyadh and Abu Dhabi joined, to take more positive steps towards ending the rivalry and resuming their relationship, with the possibility that Cairo will also play an active role in this file to bring viewpoints closer together and resolve the controversial issues that hinder the completion of this reconciliation. After it itself reconciled with Ankara.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.