The breakaway region of Somaliland concluded a controversial agreement with Ethiopia granting Addis Ababa access to the Red Sea via the port of Berbera (French)
The crisis resulting from the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, and Musa Bihi, President of separatist Somaliland, has sent shockwaves throughout the Horn of Africa. The memorandum was signed on January 1, 2024, according to which Ethiopia will obtain a 20-kilometre strategic corridor in the waters of the Gulf of Aden, a commercial port and a naval base for its naval forces. In return, Ethiopia is committed to recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, and gives it a share of Ethiopian Airlines.
The MoU is rooted in the populist and personalist approach of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to domestic policy and foreign relations; In response to the difficult internal challenges facing Ethiopia. Likewise, the President of Somaliland, Musa Bihi, is going through a complex political atmosphere aspiring to prolong his stay in power, amid growing opposition and his failure in the war with the Khatomo region located in the eastern part of historic Somaliland.
Deep crises
The deep political, economic and social crises sweeping their peoples have prompted these leaders to search for unconventional solutions to the complex internal crises in which they live. For Ethiopia, seeking to establish a corridor in the Gulf of Aden represents a strategic move to secure safe maritime access and reduce its permanent dependence on Djibouti and Eritrea for maritime trade, a dream that has haunted the landlocked Ethiopia for some time.
At the same time, Somaliland's aspiration for international recognition as an independent state has been a long-term goal. Somaliland, which separated from Somalia in 1991, failed to obtain international recognition, and negotiations with the Somali federal state did not yield tangible results.
Bihi believes that this memorandum of understanding represents an opportunity for Somaliland to achieve this goal through Ethiopia. Bihi's willingness to engage in such an agreement reflects the seriousness of the internal challenges facing Somaliland, including political instability, economic difficulties, and social tensions.
The desperation of the leaders of Ethiopia and Somaliland to find political solutions to their internal problems led them to explore unconventional and adventurous tactics that meet the aspirations of their voters and divert attention from the internal crisis.
There is no doubt that Ethiopia violated the unity and sovereignty of the Somali lands by signing this memorandum of understanding, and the tense Somali-Ethiopian relations require highlighting six points that indicate the negative effects of the memorandum of understanding, which Abiy Ahmed needs to re-evaluate and curb his intentions regarding annexing parts of the lands. Somalia, and instead promote cooperation and shared prosperity in the Horn of Africa.
1- Pitting Oromo nationalism against Somali nationalism
The Somalis have undergone a shift in their perception of Greater Somalia, which meant uniting the five parts of the Somali people that had been divided by the colonial powers: (Britain, France, Italy, and Ethiopia) during the advance and stampede towards Africa in the nineteenth century.
Instead of continuously pursuing the goal of unifying all regions inhabited by Somalis in the Horn of Africa, they adopted a new perspective on regional integration to preserve their available gains. This paradigm shift has allowed Somalis residing in Ethiopia, Kenya, and diaspora elsewhere to actively integrate into the communities and nations among which they find themselves.
However, redefining Somali nationalism does not mean ignoring the unity of the mother country, Somalia, especially in the face of external threats or challenges posed by neighboring countries.
Complex interaction
In times of such danger, Somalis - regardless of their geographical locations - remain able to unite and take collective action to protect Somalia's territorial integrity and sovereignty. Therefore, it is important to note that while the new approach emphasizes global integration and interconnectedness, there remains a sense of Somali identity and solidarity in a time of crisis.
On the other hand, Oromo nationalism relies on the dominant discourse among Oromo elites and nationalists who are characterized by portraying the Oromo people as systematically oppressed under Ethiopian rule.
In their expression of Oromo nationalism, these elites and nationalists assert that the Oromo people have long suffered from oppression and marginalization in the context of Ethiopian rule. Their view is rooted in the belief that the relationship between Oromia and Ethiopia is irreconcilable, which has led them to call for radical solutions such as the establishment of an independent Oromia state.
As Oromo nationalism continues to evolve and influence political dynamics within Ethiopia, the complex interplay between self-determination, territorial integrity and the broader question of national identity remains at the heart of their political discourse.
The Oromo and Somalis belong to the Cushitic cultural group, and the Somali state has always assisted the Oromo liberation movement in its struggle against the oppression of the people of the Ethiopian highlands. Instead of strengthening this deep-rooted relationship, Abiy Ahmed began pitting Oromo nationalism against Somali nationalism sympathetic to the historical Oromo cause.
Therefore, I strongly recommend rejecting this disastrous policy led by Abiy Ahmed, despite the opposition Oromo Liberation Front’s support for the Somali cause. What is strange about Ethiopian politics is that the opposition in Amhara, Oromo, and Tigray denounced Abiy Ahmed’s signing of the memorandum of understanding and supported the regional unity of Somalia and its state.
2- Incitement to religious war in the Horn of Africa
The Somali people - in the Horn of Africa - are Muslims, and the resurgence of Islamic values and principles has gained momentum in Somalia since the 1960s, expanding its influence over Muslims in Ethiopia, including Oromo Muslims, who constitute a Muslim majority in the country.
Commitment to the democratic path
The common ties between Muslims in the region are strong, and many Islamic movements have chosen peaceful methods to bring about change within their communities. A prominent example of this is the integration of the Islamic movement into the Somali region, and others that have become an integral part of Ethiopian society.
Likewise, the influence of Islamic ideology within the Somali Republic is evident in the social, economic and political spheres. Interestingly, despite their great influence, many of these Islamist groups have chosen democratic means to bring about societal changes and have distanced themselves from resorting to violence.
This shift toward nonviolent methods is evident in these groups' commitment to the democratic process. However, it is necessary to acknowledge that there is an exception to this trend, namely Al-Shabaab and ISIS, which have deviated from the broader nonviolent path. These groups chose the path of armed conflict and actively engaged in the war against the Somali state and the greater Horn of Africa region.
This departure from the prevailing peaceful approach highlights the complexity of the Islamic landscape in the region, and reveals a difference in strategies and ideologies between different groups wishing to retain the Islamic identity of Somali society.
Of course, Abiy Ahmed, who is rooted in Islamic culture, was born to a Muslim father and a Christian mother. He is a devout Pentecostal Christian, and his inner circle belongs to the Oromo Christian elite. The Somali expectation was to be friendlier to Somalis; Because of their ethnic background and hybrid religious culture.
The ruling elite in modern Ethiopia has always been Christian, and Somalis viewed any war with Ethiopia as a war between Muslims and Christians. This concept is rooted in the push and pull wars between Muslims and Christians in the Middle Ages in the Horn of Africa. Therefore, Abiy Ahmed must avoid... Provoking a religious war that works to activate extremist groups, such as Al-Shabaab and ISIS, and provide them with a new opportunity for recruitment and to find new justifications for staying in the region, especially since they are on the verge of defeat by Somali government forces with the support of friendly countries.
3- Reviving Somali-Ethiopian historical sensitivities
The study of contemporary historical conflicts between Somalia and Ethiopia reveals a consistent pattern, as Ethiopia emerged victorious in both the diplomatic and military arenas, despite the digital heroics achieved by the Somalis in the fields of confrontation, benefiting from the support of foreign countries allied with it.
This success can be attributed to the portrayal of Somalis as violating established international norms and laws, especially in their pursuit of the concept of Greater Somalia. As a result, the aspiration for unity has not gained global momentum, with the international community viewing Somalia as going against the winds and internationally accepted norms.
A shift in the balance of power
A poignant example of this dynamic emerged in the 1977-1978 war between Somalia and Ethiopia, when the Somalis were initially able to secure control over much of the claimed territory. However, Ethiopia eventually triumphed through a major direct military intervention supported by the Soviet Union, East Germany, Cuba, South Yemen, and other socialist regimes. Other countries considered Somalis violators of Ethiopian sovereign territory.
This external support has shifted the balance of power in favor of Ethiopia and emphasized the strategic importance of international alliances in determining the outcomes of regional conflicts. In the current context, the picture appears to be reversed, as Ethiopia is now seen as the aggressor and violator of established international norms regarding the sanctity of the territorial integrity of sovereign states.
This perspective has received widespread support for Somalia in various regional, sub-regional and international fora, all of which are united against what is seen as Abiy Ahmed’s annexation - cleverly disguised as a lease - of a plot of land and a seaport within Somali territory.
The global consensus reflects a shared commitment to upholding the principles of territorial integrity, representing a significant departure from historical narratives that have favored Ethiopia. This shift highlights the evolving dynamics of international relations and the nuanced perspectives that shape geopolitical positions. Therefore, Abiy Ahmed must retract his signing of the destabilizing memorandum of understanding, and cancel his ambitions towards Somalia.
4- An attempt to humiliate the Somali people and misjudge their strength
It is essential not to underestimate the resilience of the Somali state. The state has persevered for more than three decades through arduous efforts; To rebuild its institutions dealing with the longest civil war. Despite the challenges, Somalis demonstrate remarkable economic and political strength and tremendous military capacity.
Community ties among Somalis are strong, fostering a sense of unity and collective strength that transcends outside perceptions. On the economic, political and military levels, Somalis are stronger than others imagine. Somali clans are well-equipped and well-trained, and can form a formidable force of clan militias when necessary.
Collapse of the state
This reflects a historical lesson from the Somali-Ethiopian war of 1977-1978 when the Somali government made a similar miscalculation at the time: there was a misleading assumption that Ethiopia was militarily weak and internally divided. However, this proved to be a serious miscalculation.
Contrary to Somali expectations, the war united the Ethiopians, and because of its situation, it received support from the socialist countries, and the mobilization of a huge militia to confront the Somali forces. Naturally, the consequences of this miscalculation led to Somalia's defeat, which greatly affected the cohesion of the Somali state and ultimately led to its final collapse in 1991.
This historical incident underscores the importance of accurate assessments and potential repercussions for reducing the power of peoples and their ability to quickly overcome their internal crises when they feel a collective threat to their survival, especially in regions characterized by complex geopolitical dynamics.
The Somali experience is a testament to the enduring resilience of its people and the multifaceted nature of the challenges faced by countries striving to rebuild and assert their presence on the world stage.
Therefore, Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party must learn lessons from the contemporary and enduring history of the Somali-Ethiopian wars.
5- Incitement to clan conflict in Somalia
The recent memorandum of understanding signed by Musa Bihi has sparked divisions and unrest within Somaliland. One prominent point of contention revolves around the eastern part of Somaliland, where a distinct entity known as the Khatomo Interim Administration has emerged. This administration refuses to be part of historic Somaliland, and demands to join the Somali federal government, and take a different path from the Somaliland administration.
Tribal divisions
In contrast, a similar feeling is forming in the Awdle region, located in the northwest of the country, home to the Gidborsi and Issa clans. This region seeks to create an independent state for them under the name of Awdle State, and wants to follow the example of the Khatomo region administration, and aspires to join the federal state of Somalia.
The situation is further complicated by divisions within the Ishaq clan, to which Musa Bihi belongs. This division within the clan is particularly evident in the difference of views on the issue of offering a plot of land to Ethiopia in exchange for recognition of Somaliland.
This internal dispute would destabilize the historic Somaliland region, and may even fuel clan conflicts, creating a volatile environment within the separatist system. The implications of the signed Memorandum of Understanding extend beyond mere political agreements, as it highlights the deep divisions and aspirations within Somaliland society.
The potential destabilization of historic Somaliland underscores the delicate balance that must be maintained when dealing with complex issues such as regional negotiations and international recognition. Therefore, Abiy Ahmed must realize that his signing of this memorandum of understanding will likely spark clan conflict in Somaliland, and that his project will inevitably fail.
6- Encouraging external interventions in the Horn of Africa region
During the Cold War, the Horn of Africa emerged as a focal point of global strategic importance, becoming a magnet for great power rivalry and dominance. To this day, this region remains an important geopolitical hotspot, with various countries, including China, the United States, and France, establishing military bases in Djibouti.
In addition, rising middle powers, such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, have flexed their military and economic influence in the region. Türkiye established a military training base in Mogadishu, and Turkish companies also manage the Mogadishu airport and port.
Complex dynamics in the Horn of Africa have led to alliances between countries, including Somalia and Ethiopia. This complex web of geopolitical relations raises concerns about the possibility of a proxy war in the region. Such a conflict could jeopardize the aspirations of the people of the Horn of Africa for peace and development.
Extinguish the fire
In light of these challenges, it is imperative that leaders, including Abiy Ahmed, exercise caution and refrain from inviting foreign intervention. The intervention of external powers would lead to escalation of tensions and great destruction to the peoples of the Horn of Africa. Instead, priority should be given to a diplomatic and locally oriented approach to addressing conflicts and promoting regional stability.
It is crucial that we support the collective vision of the peoples and work to create an environment conducive to peace, development and well-being for the diverse people of the Horn of Africa.
In short, the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between Abiy Ahmed and Musa Bihi has profound implications for the stability and well-being of the peoples of the region. The potential negative consequences extend beyond the six points highlighted previously, underscoring the need for immediate attention; To prevent escalation of problems that may have far-reaching consequences. The fire must be extinguished before it sweeps the people and the Horn of Africa, with any repercussions that may extend to the security of vital trade routes.
In light of these multifaceted challenges, urgent measures are needed to address the underlying issues and foster an enabling environment for diplomacy and conflict resolution. Proactive efforts should be made to extinguish the flames of disagreement, and to emphasize the importance of dialogue, cooperation, and collective commitment to regional stability.
The well-being of communities in the Horn of Africa, the security of vital trade routes, and the broader geopolitical landscape all depend on responsible and wise management of the current situation.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.