Senegalese President Macky Sall (French)

Senegal is at a dangerous political juncture, which has made the country's political future open to all options, including the country entering into sharp confrontations that could lead to the use of excessive force that could ravage the long-standing and distinguished democratic experience in this country, which, since independence, has remained immune to unrest. The major political events taking place in the West African region, which has reached the stage of devastating civil wars in some of its countries.

Until the morning of February 3, things were going calmly, as the Election Commission announced the names of the twenty candidates who met the conditions to run for the position of President of the Republic. After reviewing the list of candidates, everyone was convinced that the current President, Macky Sall, fulfilled his promise and did not run, out of respect for the constitution, which limits the president’s term to only two terms.

In the face of an angry street revolution, when the ruling party announced that President Macky Sall would run for a third term, and there was talk of a constitutional amendment approved by Parliament controlled by the ruling party, President Sall was forced to address the nation, stressing that he would abide by the constitution and would not run again.

On February 1, campaigning officially began, which was expected to end on the scheduled polling day of February 25. Although large parties objected to the exclusion of their candidates from the competition, including the Senegalese Democratic Party, they followed legal methods and filed their complaints with the competent courts specified by the Senegalese Constitution.

But suddenly everything changed on February 3, when outgoing Senegalese President Macky Sall delivered a speech to the Senegalese nation, in which he announced that he had decided to postpone the presidential elections scheduled to be held from February 25 to a later date, and announced that he would submit his decision to Parliament for consideration. Then he will call for a comprehensive national dialogue on the future of Senegal's ancient democratic experience.

President Sall concluded his speech by confirming what he had previously declared and committed himself to, that he personally would not run in the upcoming elections, in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution.

This news may be normal in any other African country that suffers from single-party hegemony or the army’s repeated encroachment on democracy, but it was a major shock to public opinion in Senegal, a country that has not witnessed any military coup in its post-independence political history. Not only that, but peaceful democratic practice has become the only means accepted by the people for the peaceful transfer of power in the country.

Democracy in Senegal has clearly strengthened in the last quarter century, the electoral process has become largely transparent and fair, and all parties have committed to accepting the election outcome whatever it may be.

The contemporary political history of Senegal bears witness to the fact that former President Abdou Diouf, who ruled the country for twenty years, admitted his loss in the presidential elections in 2000, acknowledged his defeat against his historical rival, Abdoulaye Wade, and called him to congratulate him, to the astonishment of many African leaders. In 2012, President Abdalla Wade admitted, but with great bitterness, his loss in the second round of the elections and called his student and rival, current President Macky Sall, to congratulate him on his victory.

Last year, the country witnessed severe demonstrations when the ruling party announced that President Macky Sall would run for a third term. There was talk of a constitutional amendment approved by Parliament, which is controlled by the ruling party. In the face of the angry street revolt, President Sall was forced to address the nation, stressing that he would abide by the constitution and would not run again. .

Perhaps for this reason, President Macky Sall confirmed in his speech to the nation, in which he announced the postponement of the election date, that he would not run for a third term, so that the street would not revolt against him again.

This is a country in which democratic practice has become deeply rooted, and the citizen knows that his electoral vote is not just a piece of paper that he puts in the ballot box, but rather that his vote has weight and weight, and with it he can change the course of politics in his country. Therefore, when the president or member of parliament does not fulfill his electoral promise, the citizen confidently shouts at him, saying: You will return to us in five years, and I will not give you my vote.

Repercussions of the decision

President Sall and the ruling party attributed the motives for the postponement decision to the heated dispute between Parliament and the Election Commission, as Parliament accused two of the Commission’s judges of lack of integrity, and questioned the Commission’s credibility and its lack of respect for the provisions of the Constitution regarding candidacy conditions.

The President submitted his decision to Parliament, which held an emergency session to discuss the decision. Representatives of the opposition parties refused to discuss the issue in principle and prevented the vote, forcing the Speaker of Parliament to forcefully remove the opposition representatives from the session.

Voting took place and the members approved by a comfortable majority the decision to postpone the presidential elections from February 25 to December 15, 2024. In order for the country not to enter a constitutional vacuum with the end of the current president’s term on April 2, Parliament decided to extend the president’s term. Macky Sall until the end of the presidential elections and the elected president assuming power at the end of this year.

Representatives of the ruling party and representatives of the Senegalese Democratic Party, who had previously objected to the Election Commission’s decision to reject the file of the party’s candidate, Karim Wade, son of former President Abdoulaye Wade, voted in favor of the decision, and demanded that the election schedule be amended.

In the eye of the storm

After Parliament decided to postpone the elections until December and extend President Sall’s term for nearly a year, in what the opposition sees as a clear violation of the Senegalese Constitution, the opposition and the Senegalese street will move on two levels:

– The legal level that will be considered by the Constitutional Court and the competent judicial bodies.

The political and mobilization level is the most important, which is organizing a large mass movement. The Senegalese street has begun to organize, and it is expected that it will follow suit.

Important questions have been raised about the reasons that prompted President Sall to issue his sudden decision to stop the electoral process after it had officially begun, and many analysts believe that the main reason behind this was the assessment made by the ruling party of the expected election results, and it was confirmed to it that its candidate for the elections, the current Prime Minister, Ahmadu Bah, was not He has a great chance of winning.

In fact, the nomination of Ahmadu Bah was not unanimous among the senior leaders of the ruling party, but President Sall imposed it on the party. This is because the candidate, Ahmadou Bah, is relatively new to the scene of Senegalese politics, as he entered it clearly in 2013 when President Sall appointed him Minister of Finance, then he rose to the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs, arriving in 2022 to the position of Prime Minister. He is also not one of the founders of the ruling party, and does not have public support. Which is enjoyed by other members of the party's founders.

In confirmation of this, a trend recently emerged led by a number of senior leaders of the ruling party, with the help of President Sall's wife, calling for a change in the party's candidate. Stopping the electoral process would enable the ruling party to be able at a later stage to change its presidential candidate.

As for the opposition, it believes that stopping the electoral process and extending it for more than ten months is just a ploy by current President Macky Sall to continue ruling in violation of the constitution, and that at some point he may present a fabricated constitutional interpretation that allows him to run for a third term.

This logic is very acceptable in the fiery Senegalese street. Because President Sall maintained silence throughout the past year about his desire to amend the constitution and run for a third term, he was finally forced, after noisy demonstrations in the capital, Dakar, to announce - perhaps under duress, as the opposition says - that he would respect the constitution and would not run.

Hard choices

It seems that the decision to change the date of the presidential elections and extend the term of President Macky Sall will place Senegal in a period of serious political turmoil that threatens the peaceful democratic process that the country has known since its independence from France in 1960.

The opposition will lead a massive campaign against Parliament's decisions, and matters are expected to develop upward, culminating on April 2, 2024, the last day specified by the Constitution for the end of President Macky Sall's term.

A large number of opposition leaders, public opinion leaders, academics and civil society leaders have stated that they will not recognize President Macky Sall as president after 2 April. This means that the country is practically entering a constitutional vacuum, which could lead to chaos.

A number of jurists suggested that the Speaker of Parliament take power on April 2; To prevent any chaos in the country, while a number of opposition leaders stated that they would declare open civil disobedience on April 2, and would not recognize President Macky Sall as head of state under any circumstances.

These statements are very dangerous in a democratic country where the political street is witnessing great tension against the ruling party. We observed this in the violent youth demonstrations that broke out in the capital, Dakar, in 2021, when the court brought malicious charges against the young opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko, in which a number of people were killed, forcing the court to release him. We also witnessed this in the large demonstrations that eventually forced President Sall to announce that he would not amend the constitution and would not run for a third term.

But the most dangerous of all is that the state of chaos and constitutional vacuum - God forbid - will tempt some adventurous army officers to overthrow the ancient democratic experiment in Senegal, as their brothers did before in Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali, and not far from what happened recently in Niger.

The ancient Senegalese democracy is going through a dangerous turning point, and it is in dire need of the support of rational and wise people to avoid this difficult test, and to maintain its position as a model of hope in the deep darkness of coups in Africa.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.