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Experts and analysts say that the expected Israeli military operation in Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip, is primarily linked to the American and Egyptian positions, expressing their belief that the United States does not reject this operation, as it says in its official statements.

Despite the White House's announcement of its rejection of any military action in the region, which includes more than a million displaced people, the Secretary-General of the Palestinian National Initiative, Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, believes that Washington gave the green light to commit this massacre.

Barghouti said - during his participation in the program “Gaza... What Next?” - that stopping this process depends on the amount of American pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “who wants to move forward with his war on the Palestinians to protect himself.”

However, Barghouti expresses his belief that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken gave Israel Washington’s blessing for this operation during his recent visit to Tel Aviv, noting that every Blinken visit followed a major Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip.

Displacement is the goal

The same opinion was held by military expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, who said that the displacement of Palestinians out of the occupied territories was a declared goal since the beginning of the war, especially since Israel’s talk about “crushing the Islamic resistance movement Hamas” in Rafah carries a lot of exaggeration because they failed to achieve this goal in the south and center. sector.

In addition, the process being talked about in Rafah is divided into two parts, one of which relates to the transfer of displaced people from the area, and this raises a basic question about the place to which the displaced will be transferred, according to Al-Duwairi.

Given Israel's refusal to return the displaced to their homes in the northern Gaza Strip and its talk about establishing a safe zone there, the transfer of the displaced will only take place towards Egyptian territory, because Khan Yunis is still witnessing intense battles, according to the military expert.

Egypt and America

Based on these data, the two influential factors in this process are the Egyptian and American positions because they can have effective influence - according to Al-Duwairi’s opinion - who said, “Washington can stop military and political support immediately, while Egypt can stop this process if it takes a firm stance.”

In the same context, political analyst Muhammad Halsa believes that Netanyahu is continuing on his way, not caring about any internal or external pressures, and that the American position is the only one capable of stopping the upcoming operation in Rafah, and it is “not serious” from his point of view.

From this standpoint, halting this operation, according to Halasa, “depends on the resistance’s ability to inflict heavy losses on the ranks of the Israeli army that will force it to retreat, or on Washington reconsidering its position, which is unlikely.”

Regarding the Egyptian position, Al-Barghouti said that Cairo completely rejects the displacement of the residents of the Gaza Strip, even threatening to suspend the “Camp David” agreement with Israel, adding, “Egypt knows full well that Sinai will turn into a field of confrontation if the Gazans are displaced there.”

But Barghouti believes there is a need for a stronger Arab position to support Egypt in this crisis, because the displacement of the population of Gaza to Sinai will coincide with the displacement of the population of the West Bank to Jordan.

The Wall Street Journal quoted sources as saying that Egypt threatened Israel with suspending the Camp David Accords and mobilizing a military force on the border with Gaza.

Al-Duwairi believes that Egypt has many cards through which it can stop the Rafah operation, stressing that “the matter does not require a military buildup on the border, but rather just taking a decisive decision that Israel will not be able to bypass.”

He concluded that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi "can stop all these operations without the need for emergency Arab summits or decisions that everyone knows will not be implemented."

Barghouti reiterated that the failure of the administration of US President Joe Biden to stop this operation means that next Ramadan will be “the month of the biggest explosion” in the West Bank and perhaps in the entire region, stressing that the United States and Britain are “partners in this tripartite aggression from its first moment.”

Source: Al Jazeera