Population decline due to local government saying it may disappear February 8, 2010 16:05

``896 local governments may disappear''

in 2014.

One report shocked local governments across the country.

The ``Masuda Report'' had a variety of effects on local government policies.

It has passed 10 years ever since.

Local governments are struggling to overcome the declining birthrate.

Local governments are struggling to create new towns while accepting the declining population.

We interviewed each of them about their current situation.

Impact of “Masuda Report”

May 2014.

The Japan Creation Council, a group of experts, published a paper.

The paper provides a detailed analysis of Japan's future population projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

The focus was on the population of women in their 20s to 30s.

We selected local governments where this group will be less than half by 2040.

As a result, the government called 896 municipalities ``cities at risk of disappearing,'' warning that population decline is accelerating and they may eventually disappear.

The paper was called the ``Masuda Report,'' after the group's chairman, Hiroya Masuda (former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, current president of Japan Post), and became a hot topic at the time.

``City at risk of disappearing'' was even nominated for this year's ``New Words/Buzzwords Award''.

Mr. Masuda looks back on his goals at the time:

Hiroya Masuda

: ``At that time, I think there was a very strong sense that ``the population would decline only in a few depopulated towns and villages, and it would not be such a big problem for the country as a whole.'' At first, the term ``surviving local governments'' was used. However, if that were the case, no one would pay attention to Japan's future vision.There would probably be opposition from the local governments that were named, but unless we send out a strong message, no one will pay attention to this issue. I purposely used the word 'annihilation' because I was afraid that people would not look at me.''

Will we disappear? “I want to stop it somehow”

``Honestly, I was quite shocked by the word 'annihilation,''

said Kazumi Iwamoto, the mayor of Yoshika Town, Shimane Prefecture, who was shocked.

Mayor Iwamoto, who was serving as deputy mayor at the time, recalls that the ``Masuda Report'' had a great impact on the subsequent management of town government.

Yoshika Town Mayor Kazumi Iwamoto

: ``I wonder if this is really the case,'' but the population is steadily decreasing.The decline of the industry in the region is also a multi-layered problem of medical care, caregivers, and successors. In order to suppress it even a little, we need to work together, not just the government, but all of the town's residents."

A strong sense of crisis is evident in the ``Comprehensive Strategy,'' which was subsequently created and describes the town's basic policies.

At the outset, the paper mentions ``cities at risk of disappearing,'' and expresses a determination to focus on child-rearing policies.

Shift to childcare policy

The town was earlier than surrounding municipalities in making childcare fees, medical expenses up to high school students, and school lunch fees free for elementary and junior high school students.

Additionally, we have introduced a 10,000 yen ``uniform/gym uniform purchase subsidy coupon'' to be distributed to children entering elementary and junior high schools.

We also have a salon where parents who are raising children can interact with each other. The consultation system has also been improved.

Although efforts were made to enhance support measures, the source of concern was funding. Therefore, the town turned its attention to hydroelectric power generation.

They decided to use the money from selling electricity generated at a hydroelectric power plant that uses the water of the Takatsu River that flows through the town to an electric power company to fund their childcare budget.

Yukari and Takeshi Ishii live in the town.

The couple, who are raising five children between the ages of 6 and 19, say they are seeing the effects of the town's support measures.

Yukari

: ``It's hard because everything costs five people.But in this town, it's almost free.I also borrow a scholarship from the town for my son, a university student, without interest.I'm able to raise my children with the help I get.The classmates around me also support me. There are quite a lot of families with multiple children, some with four or five children.

Takeshi

: ``It's been a great relief that childcare fees and medical expenses have become free.Children catch colds and get injured a lot.It's noisy every day, but it's fun.''

Speed ​​of population decline

How have the efforts of the past 10 years changed the future of the town?

The total fertility rate rose to 1.83 (2013-2017).

In addition, regarding the population of Yoshika Town, which was 6,810 people as of 2010, looking at the future population projections that are the basis for the calculation of the "city at risk of disappearing", the speed of population decline has slowed down over the past 10 years, and the rate of decline has slowed. It can be seen that it has been suppressed by about 10%.

Mayor Kazumi Iwamoto

: ``There are no effective measures that will produce results overnight, so I think it is important for the government to continue to persistently pursue the goals we have set.However, we will continue to implement multi-layered measures. If we don't do that, we won't be able to stop the current population decline.We want the public and private sectors to work together to accelerate efforts."

Population decline does not stop; “change of way of thinking” is also required

Some local governments have dared to create towns that "accept population decline."

Misaki Town, Okayama Prefecture has a population of approximately 13,000.

It is one of the municipalities that have been flagged as ``cities at risk of disappearing.''

Misaki Town's population has decreased by about 2,500 people over the past 10 years.

Mayor Takayo Aono assumed office in 2018 after serving as a member of the prefectural assembly.

We have witnessed a population decline that is proceeding faster than expected.

Takahiro Aono, Mayor of Misaki Town

: ``The Masuda Report was announced in 2014.I wanted to think, ``Is that what it's going to be like?'' but the reality is that the population is declining at a faster pace than that.I was at a loss. ”

After much exploration, Mayor Aono came up with the idea of ​​``wisely shrinking town development''.

``Immediately after I took office, people asked me, ``Are you motivated?'' But that doesn't mean we should give up.We must accept reality and resize the town to accommodate the declining population.Showa era The Heisei era was a time of thinking, ``What should we build next?'' Now, it's a time of thinking, ``What should we destroy?''

The first thing we tackled was the consolidation and abolition of public facilities.

More than half of the public facilities in Misaki Town are more than 30 years old, and maintenance costs are rising due to aging.

It was estimated that if all facilities were to be updated at this rate, approximately 1.1 billion yen would be needed annually.

Therefore, libraries, community centers, health centers, etc. will be made into facilities that combine the functions of each to improve efficiency.

The company plans to demolish the original facility and consider making it available for private use. Furthermore, the town-run hot spring facility, which had been in the red, was also closed.

In addition, elementary schools and junior high schools, which had fewer students, were integrated and an ``integrated elementary and junior high school'' system was introduced.

Efficiency has been improved by allowing facilities to be shared and teachers to be assigned multiple positions.

On the other hand, it was decided to incorporate the needs of the residents as much as possible in the content of education, such as establishing a ``Special English Zone'' and putting emphasis on English education.

The town says that these efforts will reduce the budget for public facilities by approximately 46% over the next 40 years.

However, it was not easy to gain the consent of residents and the council.

Mayor Takayo Aono

: ``There are very few people who praise me.I have been familiar with public facilities for many years, so I was in a situation where I was ``for the general opinion, but against the specific points.'' "I was criticized for five hours."

Resident autonomy can also “supplement the administration”

As the number of public facilities decreased and there were concerns about the deterioration of administrative services, residents began to take it upon themselves to compensate in some areas.

In the Wabunishi district of the town, the Town Development Council has begun efforts to check on the safety of residents and maintain public order on their own.

One example is the district's unique safety confirmation system.

When residents wake up in the morning, they raise a yellow flag in front of their homes, and in the evening they put the flag away.

This way, if a house does not have a flag displayed during the day, someone who notices it will ask if it is okay. The flag was painted by local children.

They are also expanding their activities with the motto, ``Do what we can do ourselves,'' such as taking it upon ourselves to renovate the increasing number of vacant houses in the area.

Hiroshi Morioka, Chairman of the Wabunshi Town Development Council

: ``People always say, ``Why should the neighborhood association do something that should be done by administrative services?'' It's difficult for everyone to move in the same direction. We are residents, so if the town hall can't do it, we have no choice but to do it ourselves.We want to have as much fun as possible and aim for a ``lively depopulation''.''

Mayor Aono Takahiro

: ``I want both staff and residents to take the population decline as their own personal problem, and to seriously think about the future of the town together.It's really impossible for me and the town hall to be self-centered and say, ``We're going to shrink smartly.'' If that doesn't work, it won't be ``smart'' but ``just a contraction.''

A sense of crisis is not spreading...

While some local governments are achieving results, the population decline in Japan as a whole is becoming more and more serious.

The total fertility rate as of 2017 was 1.26, lower than the previous year for seven consecutive years and the lowest since statistics began.

The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates that Japan's population will fall below 100 million in 2056, and halved to approximately 63 million in 2100.

Why has the population decline not been stopped?

We asked Mr. Masuda what has been lacking over the past 10 years.

The key words that came to mind were "lack of sense of crisis" and "competition for population."

Hiroya Masuda: ``

Many people were interested in the proposal, and a sense of crisis was conveyed to local governments, but it did not necessarily spread to the entire population. I think this is because the world as a whole was not sufficiently conveyed the tragic picture of what kind of crisis society would become if the decline continued."

``Since it is difficult for local governments to increase the number of children born, a situation has arisen in which neighboring local governments compete for immigrants in order to prevent the disappearance of children in a way that is easier and more visible. Creating a society where it is easy to give birth to and raise children involves extremely delicate issues, and the government has been reluctant to tackle this issue seriously. Doesn't that mean he didn't go there?"

Now is the “last chance” to solve the population problem

10 years have passed since the “Masuda Report”. Masuda and his colleagues announced new recommendations in January.

"Population Vision 2100" by the expert group "Population Strategy Council."

The goal was to create a "stable nation of 80 million people."

In 2060, improve the total fertility rate to 2.07, which is necessary to maintain the population in the long term.

On top of that, Japan should aim to stabilize its population at around 80 million people by 2100 and build a society with growth potential.

The population decline has not improved in the last 10 years.

Will they be able to put a stop to it this time?

I asked Mr. Masuda.

Hiroya Masuda

: ``I personally think that the goal of a nation of 80 million people is a very high hurdle. However, right now we cannot see where the population will stop, so we have to stop the population decline somewhere. If we do nothing and take no measures, we will end up in a society where the number of people will decrease by 10 million in 10 years.At that stage, it will be extremely difficult to take countermeasures. I believe that 10 years is our last chance to tackle various issues."

(Scheduled to be broadcast on “Good Morning Japan” on February 9th)

News Bureau Mobile Deployment Project Reporter

Jun Okamoto

Joined the station in 2010

After working at the Gifu and Tottori stations, he is currently at the station since August last year,

reporting on issues such as population decline and the elderly.

Okayama Broadcasting Station reporter

Yoshihiro Kamiya Joined

the station in 2023 Responsible for prefectural

government

Covering issues such as population decline and deficit local line issues