The elections are being held in very difficult circumstances following the tense relationship with the leader of the Insaf Party, Imran Khan, who was dismissed from power (Reuters)
We are days away from the hotly contested elections in Pakistan scheduled for February 8, which will produce a federal parliament and four local parliaments that will administer the four Pakistani provinces, which constitute more than a quarter of a billion people.
But these elections are taking place in very difficult internal, regional and international circumstances - especially with the gap that occurred between the military who ruled the country for more than half its life, as a result of the tense relationship with the leader of the Insaf Party, Imran Khan, who was removed from power, then convicted and imprisoned, which is tradition. It is common between the military and politics throughout the history of Pakistan that the dismissal of any elected prime minister is preceded by tension in the relationship, then deprivation from political work, often accompanied by exile and deportation, perhaps with the exception of the case of Imran Khan, who was deprived of political participation along with imprisonment.
Imran Khan...the absent and present
The sentencing of the leader of the Insaf Party, Imran Khan, to ten years in prison, along with his former foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, on charges of leaking documents related to state security, aroused the ire of supporters and sympathizers with the party, and increased the rift between the party, which represents the youth class, and the deep state, represented by the military, especially since This is the first time in the history of Pakistan that a head of government has been accused of leaking documents related to state security.
Imran Khan and his Foreign Minister had leaked to the public a telegram from the Pakistani ambassador in Washington stating a threat to Khan’s government, which led to his dismissal and removal from power, after which Imran Khan and his group began to promote that the army had removed him from power under American orders, and given the popularity of the conspiracy theory, specifically with regard to Given the American interventions in Pakistan that Pakistanis have experienced throughout their short history, Khan's statements have been popular and accepted, especially among the youth segment, where they have spread like wildfire.
The electoral battle, it seems, will be between the "Pakistani People's Party" led by Bilawal Bhutto, former Foreign Minister of Pakistan, and the son of Benazir Bhutto, and the "Muslim League" party led by Nawaz Sharif, who has returned from London after being banned from political work for years by a judicial decision.
Perhaps if the document had not been leaked, the issue of accepting American involvement in his removal would not have been at the level that occurred after the document was leaked, as the majority of former Pakistani prime ministers, including Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, had previously accused America of removing them from power when the army did so.
I still remember when Benazir Bhutto told me in a press interview, after her second dismissal in 1998: The one who fired her was the American company Unocol, because Bhutto at that time preferred the Argentinian company Bridas over Unocol in obtaining the project to extend gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India across the territories. Afghan.
Days after this ten-year prison sentence, a 14-year prison sentence was added to him along with his wife, Bushra, on charges of selling gifts he received from heads of state, which contradicts the laws governing the conduct of senior statesmen.
Depriving Imran Khan from political work, and imprisoning him for ten years, may push many Pakistani voters to vote for him, especially among the youth segment, which sees his dismissal, deprivation, and then imprisonment as a clear injustice to him. Therefore, some do not rule out that he will achieve success in the elections, while a segment of them are afraid. Of electoral fraud, which may increase political and social tension in the country, which will have negative repercussions on the country and its future.
The electoral battle between Sharif and Bhutto
On the eighth of next month, 19 candidates will compete for a single federal or local parliamentary seat, which is the highest percentage in the history of old Pakistani elections. In 2017, seventeen candidates competed for a single seat, increasing the competition rate by 280% over the 1971 elections.
The electoral battle, it seems, will be between the "Pakistani People's Party" led by Bilawal Bhutto, former Foreign Minister of Pakistan, and the son of Benazir Bhutto, and the "Muslim League" party led by Nawaz Sharif, who has returned from London after being banned from political work for years by a judicial decision.
As for Imran Khan and his “Insaf” party, who are also deprived of political activity by a judicial decision, they participate in the elections through a list of independents, as the number of Imran Khan’s candidates reached 236 competing for seats in the federal parliament, so the percentage of independent candidates for the current elections increased to 63%, after it was 53. % In the last elections, independents played a role in forming the previous local governments from the 2018 elections, so they were a real egg in this election.
According to Gallup, support for Imran Khan declined from 60% last year to 57%, according to the poll released on January 10, while support for Nawaz Sharif increased in the same period from 36% to 52%. As for the Pakistan People's Party, its support rate declined from 36% to 35%.
Nawaz Sharif, who comes from the Punjab province, the largest Pakistani province, and the most present in the decision-making process, has increased his popularity in the region, according to the poll, from 57% to 60%. Sharif is 74 years old, and he assumed the presidency of the government for the first time in 1990, and it seems that the military We are relieved about his return from London, especially since the economic challenge facing Pakistan is great, and Sharif is more capable of dealing with it than others, given his business background. If he wins the elections, he will be Prime Minister of Pakistan, for the fourth time in his history and the history of Pakistan.
The Supreme Court had previously paved the way for his return last October, by acquitting him of what had previously been attributed to him, and lifted his ban from political involvement, so he can now return from London and participate in the elections and perhaps lead the country for the next five years.
The percentage of women’s candidacy in the current elections declined compared to previous sessions, as their percentage did not exceed 4.77% of the percentage of candidates, which prevented them from reaching the threshold set by the Election Commission, which is the minimum ceiling for the necessity of their participation as a candidate, which is 5%. In Imran Khan’s party, women’s participation in it reached 8%. %.
As for the youth segment, which ranges between 18-25 years, the percentage decreased from 19% participation in the 2018 elections, to the participation of the “Insaf” Party, for example, with 17% of youth, while the “People’s” Party was higher than that, as the percentage reached 18. %, bringing the youth participation rate of the "Muslim League" party led by Nawaz Sharif to only 13%.
Youth and confidence in the political system
Perhaps what is most important regarding the youth segment is not their representation or non-representation in these elections, but rather the apparent decline in confidence in the electoral process, and they see the political deprivation that political leaders, such as Nawaz Sharif, and today Imran Khan and before them Benazir Bhutto and other political figures frequently suffer. Others, not to mention the charges brought against Imran Khan that led to his imprisonment in two cases; The first: leaking state secrets, which we talked about, the penalty for which was ten years in prison, and the second: receiving gifts from heads of state during his government, then selling them.
This caused the youth class supporting him to lose confidence in the political and electoral system in Pakistan, which will have serious and perhaps profound repercussions on Pakistani security and stability.
In a recent opinion poll conducted in Pakistan, in which 2,050 respondents participated, more than 74% of them placed their confidence in the army institution out of eight institutions chosen in the poll, while the General Elections Commission emerged as the least trustworthy of all these eight institutions, and the Pakistani Supreme Court topped the list. It ranked second, with a rate of 58%, while political parties came in third place.
Such a poll reflects the extent of the failure of the institution that sponsors, organizes, and announces the general elections. By the way, the respondents were between 18 and 35 years old. Any of the youth segment.
Pre-election violence
Many fear a wave of violence that might affect the election process, especially with the repeated violent incidents that included most of the participating parties a few days ago, led by the Insaf Party led by Imran Khan, the Muslim League Party led by Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People’s Party led by Bilawal. Bhutto, as well as the left-leaning "National People's Party", in addition to Islamic parties, and many regional parties.
Here, the transitional government supervising these elections must be alert to the dangers of these threats, along with the security forces. A candidate for the Insaf Party led by Imran Khan was assassinated in the Bajaur tribal region, followed by the killing of four supporters of the party in a bombing of an election event in the Sibi area, and this was repeated in Karachi. And also in the North Waziristan tribal region, when an independent candidate was targeted but miraculously survived, and a candidate affiliated with the “Muslim League” party led by Nawaz Sharif was subjected to an assassination attempt in Turbat in the Balochistan region, but he survived it, although such incidents are common in Pakistani elections, but the fear remains. Concern prevails in the Pakistani street about the possibility of its development and deterioration.
Internal and external challenges for the next government
The internal reality, especially related to the political system, and the way to deal with Imran Khan’s angry supporters who are able to mobilize the Pakistani street at every moment, obstructing and impeding the work and activity of any Pakistani government, in addition to economic challenges after the decline of the Pakistani rupee, stands on the list of priorities for the challenges of the next Pakistani government. At frightening proportions, financial and businessmen fear for the fate of their businesses and trade.
Therefore, the arrival of Nawaz Sharif, who comes from this class, may be a message of reassurance to them, and to the Pakistani economy, in addition to global financial and business circles. The International Monetary Fund estimated inflation in Pakistan for the year 2023 at 29.2% after it was 12.1% in the previous year, while it collapsed. The size of the gross domestic product in 2022 will increase from 6.1% to .5% in 2023, and the international challenge will remain very important and sensitive, in terms of balancing Pakistani relations with China, America, India, and Russia, in light of the intense competition between these international and regional powers, which has reached direct wars. Or indirectly between them, and thus Pakistan stands in the eye of international storms.
But regardless of who wins the February 8 elections, Pakistani foreign policy is the share and share of the military, and they cannot allow any prime minister to approach the red line, which was prominent in Imran Khan’s approach to Russia on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine, so the military turned against him. Which led to America's anger at him, and participation in his overthrow, as Imran and his supporters believe. Therefore, any future clash between the military and the Prime Minister of Pakistan is linked to this extreme sensitivity, as the military sees that they are the guarantor of the existence and survival of Pakistan, and such joints are tools for this guarantee.