Uninvited guests and unsolicited gifts

When, at the end of January, the President of the United States of America, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., announced that the United States would suspend the process of approving new LNG export contracts “due to the situation with climate change,” he (or those around him) of course understood that there would be some criticism .

And first of all from the Republican competitors, of course.

But no one, of course, even imagined that because of this decision, quite logical from the point of view of American strategy, which was actually adopted within the framework of a bipartisan consensus to strangle competitors, such an orgy would begin. Here it seems that either the situation in the American energy sector has really gone too far, or the current administration, as part of the election campaign, is already beginning, according to a Russian proverb, to count every American bast in a line, regardless of agreements and authorities.

Here we can only guess, but the result, as they say, is obvious.

Or on the face - depending on which side you look at it. But in any case, you won’t envy the current administration.

As Foreign Policy magazine writes, in expert circles, by analogy with the late USSR, long recognized as something of an American analogue of the Soviet magazine “Communist,” with his very timely decision to ban LNG exports, Joe Biden simultaneously presented a gift to Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

And “pissed off” the EU.

Which, by the way, is a great illustration of another brilliant formulation: “if you want to know when an American politician or journalist is lying, look to see if his mouth is open.” For Joe Biden did not anger the European Union at all (there is no one there to be angry with, alas, not Macron and Scholz), although he scared him half to death. And for Vladimir Vladimirovich, as well as for the Russian gas industry as a whole, this unsolicited gift is somehow so-so - Russian gas workers have long given up on Europe as a priority direction of development. And so far, out of nothing to do, records for exports to China are being set - just now, on Saturday, February 3, judging by news agency reports, Gazprom set a new, fifth since the beginning of the year, historical record for daily pipeline gas supplies to China (so gas workers have a little time for it).

But seriously, this is a rare case when the decision made by the Biden administration looks quite logical from a strategic point of view: Russian gas was not pushed out of Europe in order to replace it with American LNG.

Sorry, but from the point of view of real business, this is simply economically impossible and, moreover, stupid. No one will work at a loss to themselves, and in the European economic model with expensive American LNG it simply cannot be done any other way. Well, making this gas, if not exactly cheap, then at least at reasonable prices over a long period of time is no longer profitable for American gas workers.

This is an unresolvable conflict of interest.

But within the framework of the process of deindustrialization of Europe as a competitor to the reviving American industry, everything is working out very well, and it’s somehow rather naive not to understand.

However, let's take it in order.

Let us recall that at the end of January, Joe Biden, quite unexpectedly for the whole world, announced that the United States would suspend the process of approving new LNG export contracts due to the situation with climate change.

There, however, the topic of “free trade agreements” immediately surfaced, but this is no longer important: you can come up with any reason, American politicians can do this, perhaps, like no one else. Just look at the history of the twentieth century and American wars, which have always been essentially purely commercial enterprises.

Just look at how many respected people were enriched by losing Afghanistan even in snot.

And if you look at the situation from this side, the reason for Biden’s decision is quite obvious: gas markets, including the LNG market, are noticeably “cooling.” And you can talk as much as you like about “warm European winters” or something similar, but the real reason, we repeat, is obvious: prices on the market are falling because demand is falling.

Moreover, in the industrial sector it is literally falling catastrophically.

By the way, at the same time, this is precisely the reason why what is happening cannot in any way be considered a “gift to Putin”: the European industry, which is now collapsing in real time, as a long-term buyer, is a gift of very dubious value.

We left there not because we were afraid of sanctions: the now famous “turn to the East” was announced long before the current Western restrictions. And someone, and the Russian president, simply out of duty, is quite deeply immersed in the problems of global energy, accordingly, as the author of this very “turn”, he understands this much better than anyone else.

Well, on the other hand, the logic of the current American administration is also quite understandable: there, among other things, some problems with the domestic market are also predicted. Which, during the election race, looks absolutely unacceptable for Democrats.

So, in such a situation, why stand on ceremony with this European economy, which, anyway, within the framework of the bipartisan Republican-Democratic consensus, sooner or later is still ordered to die?

Well, just think: maybe you can speed up the process a little.

Including, by the way, so that these European industrialists do not eat up the emerging defense orders with hungry eyes before their eyes: with such problems in the energy sector, how can you qualify for something in public and secret tenders for the military-industrial complex, especially if your competitor there is your American partner?

That's right - it's a one-sided game.

Nevertheless, this seemingly quite understandable and even somewhat rational (not in the sense of climate, climate has absolutely nothing to do with it) decision of the administration caused extremely sharp criticism from the Republican camp.

And Speaker of the House of Representatives Johnson even called it outrageous, because, according to him, Biden is “strengthening Russia” and pushing the EU to depend on it. However, this, frankly speaking, is also unlikely to be caused by great concern for the state of European economies. Somehow this doesn’t sit well with the American Republicans, who, like that sheriff, have never cared about the problems of the European natives at all. So, most likely, like everything else, this anger is nothing more than an element of the election campaign.

Well, as for us, actually, from this mostly American-European mess (the falling “Chinese” volumes of American LNG will be found with something to replace, you don’t have to pay much attention to this) in its pure form, neither warm nor cold. The strategy is defined, priorities are set, everything is going according to plan, and we don’t need to fuss at all: we traditionally don’t really like to visit without an invitation, but we don’t really need uninvited guests, like unsolicited gifts.

The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editors.