US President Joe Biden (left) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the G20 summit (Getty)

A question that has become strongly posed on the Turkish political scene in the wake of Parliament’s approval to accept Sweden’s membership in NATO, and the American statements and positions that followed this announcement that carried positive messages, indicating in their entirety that the stage of Turkish-American disputes has or nearly closed its pages, and that the stage The coming period may witness more rapprochement between the two allies regarding many of the controversial issues between them, which led to the decline of their relationship to its lowest level in decades.

Mixed gains

The gains that Turkey obtained from its agreement to accept Sweden’s membership in NATO go beyond increasing its rapprochement with the European Union countries and proving its loyalty to the alliance, after it fulfilled its countries’ desire to form an expanded front against Moscow. In anticipation of the possible results of the Russian-Ukrainian war, despite the close relations and common interests that bind it with its neighbor, Russia.

Turkey succeeded in forcing Sweden to amend its constitution, pass a new anti-terrorism law, cancel the nationalities granted to a number of members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party wanted by the Turkish judiciary, confiscate some of their money from Swedish banks, and limit their hostile activities against the Turkish state and its political symbols.

This is in addition to lifting the ban on arms exports to Turkey, after which the Netherlands took the same position, followed recently by Canada, which announced the abolition of all restrictions that had been obstructing Canadian arms sales to Turkey since 2020.

Sweden membership

Sweden overcame Turkey's obstacle to its membership in NATO, came within the framework of the barter imposed by the United States on Turkey, in exchange for completing a deal to sell 40 modernized F-16 aircraft at a value of $23 billion, in addition to obtaining about 80 sets of spare parts to modernize it. Its air force capabilities are worth $20 billion.

Where the White House announced that it had officially informed Congress of its intention to move forward with the completion of the sale of modernized F-16 warplanes to Turkey, immediately after the Turkish President ratified the Parliament’s memorandum, as if with this announcement he was fulfilling his commitment to his own part of this exchange. And the promise he made to complete it.

Despite this, the statements issued by some White House officials, and the steps taken after that, indicate that relations between the two countries will take a direction different from what they are now.

There is also a great possibility for the return of cooperation between them in many files, and regional and international issues in which their interests intersect, such as: the Libyan, Syrian, and Iraqi files, which will give Ankara great gains that it has always aspired to achieve, and which Washington has hindered.

Withdrawal from Syria and Iraq

Several successive leaks have recently spread stating that there is a desire by the United States to withdraw its forces present in northern Iraq (2,500 soldiers) and eastern Syria (900 soldiers), a desire that is consistent with Turkey's vision of the American military presence in both countries.

It was announced by many American officials that there are serious, intense discussions currently taking place within the corridors of the White House to discuss the manner and timing of withdrawal from Syrian and Iraqi territories, and that there is certainty among officials within the American administration and those close to President Joe Biden that they believe that American military continuation in both countries has not It is necessary.

Although the US State Department was quick to deny these leaks, and confirmed that there is no such approach in Washington, and that they are determined to continue the American presence in the region; In order to preserve the interests of America and its allies, talking about withdrawing American forces from the region at this time seems logical given Washington’s silent position regarding Turkish military operations in both the Syrian and Iraqi north.

Specifically in the areas where its forces are stationed, and its failure to take any reaction indicates its rejection of these operations or the demand for them to stop.

This is in addition to the attacks on its forces on the ground in the two countries, the losses it incurred in lives and equipment, the extent of the failures it suffered, and the failure of the American administration to achieve its goals that it sought through its presence on the ground there.

This military presence also faces strong opposition, whether from officials in Baghdad and Damascus, who see it as an occupation of their lands, or from Turkey, Russia, and Iran, in addition to escalating tensions in the Red Sea and the Palestinian territories.

Spread reassurance

As for the US State Department’s denial, it most likely comes within the framework of its attempts to reassure the hearts of both the forces of the People’s Protection Units (SDF) and members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, its partners in the region, through a message that it will not abandon them, and will not leave them as an easy prey in the mouths of Ankara and Tehran, as It's happened before.

Perhaps the recent statements issued by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken - about the continued presence of the threat of ISIS elements, who are present at many points within the regions, and that the war against them is still continuing - point in this direction, to confirm that his country's alliance with them still exists. And that their role has not ended, and that Washington is moving forward with its cooperation with them, despite attempts to drive a wedge between them.

Removing American forces from Iraq and Syria automatically means stopping military and logistical support for members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the People’s Protection Forces, and their exit from under the cloak of American protection, which will inevitably be in Turkey’s interest, and give it the ability to rearrange the situation in the region in agreement with the leadership of both countries. Syria and Iraq, in addition to Russia and Iran, ensuring the protection of their borders and the preservation of their national security.

Türkiye and Greece

Among the Turkish gains that Ankara also reaped as a result of the United States’ positivity towards it, was the latter’s effort to purify the atmosphere of Turkish-Greek relations, as they are its closest allies, and to push them to sit again at the negotiating table to put an end to their differences and remove the tension between them, which resulted in Athens announcing its approval. On completing the F-16 aircraft deal to Turkey, which it strongly opposed and sought to block in Congress.

It is true that it obtained from Washington in return 40 F-35 aircraft worth $8 billion, but its acceptance of supplying its neighbor with modernized F-16 aircraft without saying that this increases Turkey’s military capabilities - which represents a direct threat. It has contributed to Ankara receiving the statements of its Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis with great satisfaction.

He stressed his desire to enhance the positive atmosphere currently existing between his country and Turkey following the support that Athens provided to its neighbor during the earthquake disaster that struck southern Turkey in February of last year.

He praised, for the first time, the Turkish defense industries and its unprecedented military capabilities, and his desire to find a mechanism for cooperation between them in this field, confirming that he will visit Ankara next May.

He expressed his optimism about the possibility of reaching a solution to the issue of determining the outstanding maritime powers between them, which is considered one of the most important controversial issues that hinder the progress of relations between the two countries.

Positive developments on the level of more than one file, and successive gains, which confirm that the next stage will witness a steady improvement in relations between Ankara and Washington, but what is striking about this return is that it will not be in accordance with the vision of the follower and the followed that Washington wanted, but rather it will be in accordance with the Turkish vision that is based on Standing on an equal footing between them, and governed by the common interests of each of them, without dictates or conditions, as was the case before.