Recently, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has repeatedly broken through the 40 degrees Celsius high temperature, what is the reason behind it?
Wei Ke, deputy director of the Monsoon System Research Center of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China Youth Daily and China Youth Network: "The hot places in China this year are mainly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the southern Yangtze River basin is not so hot. The reasons why Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is so hot are more complex, the most important being global warming. ”
Some people point the direct cause of the high temperature to El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on July 7 that El Niño conditions occurred in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years. WMO Secretary-General Petri Talas said in a press release: "The emergence of an El Niño event will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records, and may also trigger extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the oceans. ”
El Niño refers to a periodic climate phenomenon in which the surface waters of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator warm abnormally every few years. WMO notes that this phenomenon occurs on average every 2 to 7 years, usually lasting 9 to 12 months. This is a naturally occurring climate pattern, but it occurs in a climate context altered by human activities.
Weike believes that this time the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei high temperature, El Niño conditions provide a "small disturbance". He explained that El Niño years tend to cause drought in the north, which can be said to be "weakly correlated" with high temperatures. However, from the statistical results of extreme temperatures, there was no obvious high temperature anomaly in Beijing in previous El Niño years. Therefore, he believes that the El Niño phenomenon should be regarded as "adding fuel to the fire" for the high temperature in Beijing and other places, and the root cause of extreme weather is global warming. He pointed out that it is not only northern China that is hot this summer, "the whole world is cool and hot." In June this year, the temperature in Mexico, Pakistan, Iran and other countries exceeded 6 degrees Celsius. On June 45, the maximum temperature in Zabol, Iran, reached 6.21 degrees Celsius. He believes that the repeated occurrence of extreme hot weather in various places may be just a "prelude" to the manifestations of global warming, and "50 degrees Celsius may be considered high temperature in the future."
High temperatures are only the "tip of the iceberg" of the "disaster package", and global warming will also bring heavy rainfall, floods, droughts, wildfires, stronger typhoons, ocean acidification, and rising sea levels.
"Mankind has fully entered a new stage of frequent disasters." According to the United Nations Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Agency's "Human Losses Caused by Disasters 2000-2019" report, in the past 20 years, extreme heat events have increased by 232%, floods by 134%, storms by 97%, wildfires by 46%, and drought events by 29%. In short, global warming will make "wet wetter and dry drier."
Weike has repeatedly mentioned the concept of "tipping points" in the climate system in popular science. If human activity "business as usual", the resulting warming will reach more than 2100 degrees Celsius by 4, global temperatures will break through the major tipping points of the climate system, and the habitability of the earth will be completely changed.
The difficulties of "far away" and the current high temperature make it difficult to calm down, especially when "ambush" is imminent, many people ask: "Will it be hotter after ambush?" ”
In this regard, Weike answered: "Whether it will be hotter after ambush is related to the region." After the fall in North China, the rainy season will usher in, and the rain will fall much and the temperature will drop. At the end of the rainy season in the south, temperatures may rise. ”
He said that in response to extreme weather, the World Meteorological Organization calls on countries to give early warning and take early action. It is recommended that governments and management departments at all levels pay more attention to the rights and interests of vulnerable people, outdoor and hot weather workers, and provide public heat shelters, especially during the high temperature orange and red warning period, open public activity centers, libraries, etc., so that outdoor workers can avoid the hottest weather at noon.
Zhang Qian, reporter of China Youth Daily Source: China Youth Daily