In May this year, many countries in Asia set high temperature records; Recently, the temperature in many places in northern China has exceeded 5 °C. The global warming that arrived ahead of schedule is of great concern.
Will this year be affected by El Niño and break the warmest record of 2016 to become the warmest year in the world since 1850? On June 6, Zhou Bing, chief expert of meteorological services at the China Meteorological Administration, told the West China Metropolis Daily and cover news reporter that although there are still certain uncertainties, it can be predicted with a high probability that this year will be warmer than the previous two "La Niña years". Zhu Congwen, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, said that with the continuous warming of the world, record-breaking high temperatures will continue in the next few decades.
Will 2023 be the hottest year?
With soaring ocean temperatures around the world and the arrival of an El Niño in the Pacific, 2023 could be the hottest year on record, and the planet is heading for "uncharted territory," researchers said.
Previously, the hottest year on record was 2016, and this month's temperature record suggests that 2023 could be close to 2016. Data from the EU's Earth observation programme-Copernicus programme shows that the temperature peak occurred on June 6, when the global average temperature was 9.16°C, just 7.2016°C below the highest temperature since records began on August 8, 13.
Notably, while human-driven climate change is still warming the globe, there is no evidence that this process has accelerated this year.
In addition to the warming caused by climate change, the combination of specific warming conditions has led to new temperature records. For months, scientists have been warning that sea surface temperatures have been at record highs due to a series of marine heatwaves around the world. On June 6, the temperature in the North Atlantic reached its highest point of 11.22°C, 7.2010°C higher than the record high in June 6.
Copernicus members said: "It's surprising that ocean temperatures and air temperatures spike at this time of year. What has been observed so far suggests that 0 could be one of the 5 hottest years. "Never in human history has there been such a 'warm' ocean, and air temperatures are about to break records." We are in uncharted territory. ”
The same El Niño plus climate change, but this year has a very different temperature performance than 2016. In 2016, peak temperatures were concentrated in Siberia and the Arctic; In 2023, several regions, including Antarctica, experienced hot weather.
One to two months earlier than expected
"More and more data shows that El Niño is pushing up global warming and is likely to bring new global warming records." The National Climate Center predicts that the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean will enter El Niño status this summer. This El Niño appeared one to two months earlier than expected, and it developed rapidly.
Zhou Bing said that at present, the forecast for this El Niño event is an event of moderate intensity or above, which will last at least 8 to 10 months, which has a significant impact on China's winter climate and summer precipitation. Experts at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center estimate a 56 percent chance of the event reaching a strong El Niño.
El Niño originates in the oceans and causes global or regional climate anomalies through the interaction of tropical oceans with the atmosphere, amplifying the intensity of extreme weather. The extremely strong El Niño event in 1998 caused serious flooding in the Yangtze River Basin in China, which had a huge impact on the safety of people's lives and property and economic development. The super El Niño event from 2015 to 2016 caused India's wheat production to fall by at least 2016% in 14, South Africa's grain production by 25%, and China's barley production by 7.3%. From the autumn of 2009 to the spring of 2010, Yunnan and other places in China experienced the most severe drought in autumn, winter and spring since meteorological records began.
Zhou Bing said that on the one hand, the development of El Niño will lead to an increase in rainfall in southern China in summer, a decrease in rainfall in the north, and a situation of "waterlogging in the south and drought in the north", especially need to be vigilant against waterlogging in southern cities; On the other hand, El Niño will lead to a warmer winter or even a warm winter.
Record-breaking heat will continue
Zhu Congwen told reporters that with the continuation of global warming, in the past two years, extreme maximum temperatures have been observed in different regions to break historical records. Historical records generally refer to observations since records began in 1961. The new normal of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions that continue to rise global temperatures and SSTs is likely to continue.
How long will this record-breaking continue? Zhu Congwen said that according to the latest report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with the continuous global warming, this record-breaking high temperature phenomenon will continue in the next few decades. Persistent heat waves can have a negative impact on local power supply, agricultural production and public health. For example, in the summer of 2022, a persistent heat wave event in the Yangtze River Basin caused severe meteorological drought, lake drying, and forest fires in Chongqing, with serious impacts on the city and the public.
How can cities and the public prevent the adverse effects of high temperatures in advance? Zhu Congwen suggested that hot weather can be achieved by reducing the time of outdoor exposure, staggering the peak, in addition, the need to replenish hydration, reduce strenuous exercise, beware of heat stroke and excessive use of air conditioning that causes physical discomfort.
The warming waters have caused tens of thousands of dead fish to fill the beach
Since June 6, local time, thousands of fish in Texas, United States, have washed up on the shore due to lack of oxygen in warm waters. On the 9th, Quintana Beach County Park Department officials released some photos showing a large number of dead fish floating in coastal waters. Fraser, director of the Brasoria County Parks Department, said the fish washed ashore because of the harsh conditions. Warm water contains much less oxygen than cold water, he said, and the region's calm sea and cloudy skies hinder the way oxygen normally blends into seawater. This is because fewer waves add oxygen to the water, and cloudy skies reduce the ability of microbes to produce oxygen through photosynthesis. When schools of fish are trapped in warm, shallow water, they begin to act erratically due to lack of oxygen, which further depletes oxygen in the water.
St. Clair, manager of marine biological facilities at Texas A&M University, said warming Gulf Coast waters due to climate change could be one of the causes of fish killings. "As water temperatures rise, it will definitely lead to more of these events," St. Clair said, "especially in our shallow, nearshore or offshore environments." ”
The National Weather Service recorded on the 8th that the maximum temperature in Bratoria County was 33 °C, which is the day when dead fish washed ashore were first reported.
A 2019 UN report concluded that warming waters have increased the incidence of hypoxia or low oxygen levels in coastal waters, threatening fish stocks. One of the report's authors said at the time that oxygen loss and other effects of global warming would "put tremendous pressure" on the Gulf Coast region in the future.
In addition to localized hypoxia, it is known that during the summer months, a large "dead zone" spanning thousands of square miles forms in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted on the 12th that the area of this death zone this year will be smaller than in previous years, covering about 4155 square miles of coastal water.
St. Clair said fish deaths could have a significant impact on the environment because the dead fish are mainly bay herring, which plays a "key role" in the local ecosystem. "If we continue to kill these fish in large numbers, you may see a ripple effect," she said. ”
In addition to the United States, this situation occurs in many parts of the world. New Zealand's largest king salmon producer said it was shutting down some farms after warming waters caused massive fish deaths, according to The Guardian. Imperial salmon, also known as "Chinook salmon", is a salmon that has a high price on the world market.
Roswarn, chief executive of New Zealand Imperial Salmon, said New Zealand farms raised 85 per cent of global monarch salmon. Today, warmer summer waters mean that in some places king salmon die en masse before they mature, forcing farmers to dump thousands of tonnes of dead fish into dumps.
West China Metropolis Daily - cover news reporter Yan Lei, Zhang Zheng, Bian Xue
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