The last announcement was made on May 5 after the number of people infected with the new coronavirus was "grasped".

【May 8: Announcement by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare: 5,8 nationwide, 9310,1331 in Tokyo】

One month has passed since the status under the Infectious Diseases Act shifted to "Class 5".

What is the number of infected people now?

From the analysis of predictions by AI and posts on SNS, the "current situation of corona" has become visible.

Predicted by AI Infected people in Tokyo 6,2000 in June 8,6700 in August

The last time the actual number of infected people was announced in Tokyo was 5,8 on May 1331.

How many infected people are there in Tokyo right now?

Professor Akimasa Hirata of the Nagoya Institute of Technology is using AI to predict the number of infected people based on the number of people infected with the new coronavirus, the effects of immunity from vaccination and infection, and the number of social media posts such as "drinking parties" and "barbecues" that indicate the activity of social activities.

In April, Professor Hirata and his colleagues predicted that the number of infected people per day in Tokyo would remain at about 4,1 in early June, assuming that the number of infected people would return to the pre-corona level around summer without the appearance of a more contagious mutated virus.

According to an analysis of data to grasp the number of infected people at a fixed point, the number of infected people has generally been on the same trend as previously predicted for one month after the transition to Class 5, and Professor Hirata expressed the view that this was a factor that "many people were infected in the seventh and eighth waves, so immunity was maintained, and a rapid spread of infection was unlikely to occur."

Furthermore, if we use AI to predict the number of infected people in the future assuming that the number of people will return to the pre-corona level in July, the number of infected people in Tokyo will begin to increase from mid to late June, and in mid-August, ▽ about 7,6 people if the mask wearing rate is 8%
▽ about 50,4400

people if the mask wearing rate is 20
% Assuming that the wearing rate of masks is 5300% and that the number of highly infectious strains of the mutated "XBB" virus will increase, the number of people has risen to about 20,6700.

According to Professor Hirata, the risk of infection will increase in the future due to the rise in temperature and the increased use of air conditioners, insufficient ventilation, a gradual decline in immunity, and increased activity of people.

On the other hand, Professor Hirata says that with the transition to Class 5, the number of infected people every day is no longer grasped, and the accuracy of predictions is decreasing, and "it is important to build an environment where complex data can be used."

The number of infected people nationwide is estimated to be about 3,5000 by the private sector

How many infected people are there nationwide?

The last time the actual number was announced on May 5, the number of infected people nationwide was 8,9301.

According to the website of a pharmaceutical company that estimates the number of people infected with the new corona based on data from a private medical database, the number of infected people nationwide as of March 7 is estimated to be about 3,5000 per day, more than three times the number announced at the last real number.

The website is operated by the Japan corporation of the American pharmaceutical company Moderna, and based on data from about 3,4200 medical institutions nationwide registered in a private medical information database, the number of infected people nationwide and region estimated under the supervision of experts is posted every day.

In addition, the percentage of people who visited medical institutions and were tested positive was 28%, an increase of 1 points in about one month.

"I have a sore throat" "I have a fever" Tweet posts About 500 tweets every day

There are also signs on social media that the infection seems to be spreading.

A group led by Professor Masashi Toyoda of the Institute of Industrial Science at the University of Tokyo is analyzing the number of posts that appear to be related to the novel coronavirus based on Twitter data compiled by NTT DATA.

Changes in the number of tweets about symptoms (blue line) and the number of positive cases

As a result, the number of posts complaining of sore throat and fever has increased since April, reaching an average of about 4 posts per day per week in early April and about 4 posts in May and June when the transition to Class 1.

In the "sixth wave" from the beginning of last year, the "seventh wave" last summer, and the "eighth wave" from last fall, the number of posts complaining of sore throat and fever and the trend of the increase or decrease in the number of infected people are almost identical. The novel coronavirus itself is thought to be on the rise."

Tweet posts speculated to be "drinking party" Around 1000 tweets every day

Changes in the number of tweets related to risk behavior (line) and the number of positive cases

In addition, until now, the infection spread when the number of posts presumed to have been held for drinking parties increased, and then the number of posts decreased and the infection situation calmed down, but since the beginning of this year, the trend has continued to increase, and from early spring, it is around 1000,1 per day, the highest level in one year from last year.

Professor Toyoda said, "People's behavior is thought to have returned to normal, and the upward trend may continue for a while. It is important to provide as much data as possible that shows daily changes so that people can decide on their own infection control measures according to the situation."