Maj. Gen. Fayez al-Duwairi, a military and strategic expert, said that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant's warning of the challenges the occupation will face in the event of a multi-front war reflects Tel Aviv's recognition of the erosion of the concept of the historical deterrence theory it once adopted.
Al-Duwairi added in his interview with the episode of the program "Beyond the News" (2023/6/5) that this theory and the related talk about the Israeli occupation army is invincible and has the ability to defeat all the countries of the ring have become doubtful even by the Israeli leadership, and need to be tested.
This comes against the backdrop of Galant's statement during a field tour as part of an annual military exercise that simulates a multi-front war that the home front will face challenges that Israel has never experienced before in the event of a multi-front war, stressing the need to prepare for them as best as possible.
The program questioned the readiness of the Israeli home front for such field scenarios, and the associated political climate in light of the balances and conflicts that have settled on the political scene in the country, and the interactions provoked by the Al-Awja attack on the Egyptian border.
3 Scenarios
Al-Duwairi explained that the occupation is anticipating three scenarios, all of which are terrifying, but the degree of bad is varied, the worst of which is that the war with Iran is supported by the arms of the resistance supporting it in the north and south.
The second scenario, which is less bad, is that the confrontation with the northern front is limited to Hezbollah, while the third scenario, which is the least bad, is that the confrontation with the southern front is against the resistance in Gaza, which has been repeated over the past years more than once.
Al-Duwairi pointed out that if the confrontation erupts in the first scenario, the geography of occupied Palestine will be all covered by fire with resistance rockets from the north and south, which means that 7 million Israelis will be trapped in shelters, while economic life will be paralyzed and communication with the world will be cut off.
But at the same time, he stressed that Israel and Iran, as well as Hezbollah and the Palestinian resistance forces, all do not want a comprehensive escalation, but each speaks of its keenness to win the next round in the event of war, and "everyone is in a stage of anticipation and preparation."
Regarding the impact of the Awja operation and what the Egyptian conscript did on the border, al-Duwairi believes that Israel's biggest concern now is that it will be a show of Suleiman Khater Thani, which requires it to take greater security measures than it is, and for Egypt to pledge that no one will enter Sinai without comprehensive security scrutiny.
First time
Ihab Jabarin, a political analyst and researcher specializing in Israeli affairs, said that this is the first time in half a century that Israel sees itself facing a multi-front challenge, in light of an old Israeli policy that works to isolate the Palestinian cause and highlight the existential Iranian threat to Israel as a kind of paranoia.
Jabarin pointed out that the policy of the current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urges the exploitation of this issue to control internal disputes, and over the past years he has tried to manage this conflict through the gray zone by giving the Mossad other agencies the responsibility of managing the conflict with Iran in various areas.
For his part, the diplomatic affairs correspondent of the Israel Broadcasting Corporation Amichai Stein said that the statements of Israeli officials reflect a growing feeling in Tel Aviv that the situation has reached a point that may lead to a war on all borders and that things are moving in this direction, which requires preparation for it.
Stein added that any mistake someone makes could lead to that war, and therefore he expects the region to witness more Israeli operations against sites and destinations that may commit those mistakes, as he put it.
Stein acknowledged that at the domestic level, the ongoing division over the judicial reforms that the Netanyahu government seeks to pass is still a source of concern for the military leadership, which stresses the need for unity in anticipation of any confrontation, but stressed that if the confrontation breaks out, it will be a reason for Israeli unity, as in previous experiences.