Erdogan as president. A reading of the results and consequences

Turkey's High Election Commission (YYPC) announced that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a third presidential term after leading his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the run-off elections by a clear margin according to preliminary results, in the man's toughest electoral contest since the establishment of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001.

Total

According to preliminary results, the Turkish president received 51.16% of the vote (27.7 million votes), and his rival, the candidate of the opposition People's Alliance, Kılıçdaroğlu, received 47.84% of the votes (25.4 million votes), a difference of nearly 2.3 million votes.

About 53.8 million voters participated in the election with a turnout of close to 84% in Turkey, with about 700,54 votes canceled in this round, after Turks abroad had recorded a turnout close to 59%. Erdogan also received 4.40 percent of the Turkish vote abroad, compared to 6.<> percent for his rival Kılıçdaroğlu.

The main observation in the run-off is that the turnout in the Kurdish-majority areas as well as the voting rate for Kılıçdaroğlu have declined significantly, and a similar thing can be said about some major cities with an influential Kurdish voice, such as Istanbul.

The map of the results has not changed much, as Kılıçdaroğlu has advanced again in the western coast provinces of the country, which are clear areas of influence for his party, as well as in all Kurdish-majority southern and southeastern regions thanks to the support of the HDP. On the other hand, Erdogan maintained his lead in other regions, foremost among them the Black Sea and central Anatolia. Hatay province, one of the provinces affected by the earthquake, was perhaps the only exception in the run-off, as it turned into a simple majority in favor of the Turkish president, while the situation was reversed in the first round.

Kılıçdaroğlu also led Erdogan again in a number of major cities, led by Istanbul and Ankara, with a slight change in results and a clearer decline in participation rates from the first round.

In the Kurdish-majority areas where Kılıçdaroğlu maintained a clear advantage over President Erdoğan, thanks to the support of the HDP, turnout and opposition candidate turnout declined significantly. In Diyarbakir, the region's largest province, for example, voter turnout fell from 81.7 percent to 75.9 percent, and voting for Kılıçdaroğlu fell by nearly 40,3 votes, compared to a slight increase for Erdogan close to <>,<> votes. The results of the rest of the region's governorates were significantly similar to this trend.

In an important difference from the first round, the counting process was much faster and the first results came out much earlier than the first round, due to the absence of complications related to the legislative elections in which 24 parties and 5 large coalitions participated, which made the voting and counting processes more complicated and time-consuming in the first round.

Semantics

In reading the results, it should not be missed to mention that the electoral process proceeded smoothly and easily and was completed without any significant events or violations, which was stated by the High Election Commission and praised by both parties. While the losing candidate, Kılıçdaroğlu, avoided congratulating Erdogan directly, his brief speech after the result came out meant accepting the results and being satisfied with the people's decision.

The result has two angles that are contradictory and complementary at the same time. These elections were the most difficult in the history of Erdogan and the AKP, as the latter fell significantly in the parliamentary elections and the president could not win the first round and needed a run-off. But from another angle, it is the 16th consecutive electoral victory for Erdogan and his party since the latter's founding in 2001 and took power in the country in 2002, and under difficult economic conditions, an earthquake disaster and after the unification of the opposition in an unprecedented manner, which is a rare phenomenon and may be exceptional, as it is usually the parties and personalities that rule for a long time to be subjected to sagging, retreat and decline after a while, a rule that the man and his party have so far deviated.

The decline in turnout was expected, due to the convergence of time between the two rounds and the logistical challenges that this entails for some voters, in addition to the results of the first round, which prompted some Erdogan supporters to reassure and some Kılıçdaroğlu supporters to frustration, but it seems that the decline in voting was close between the two camps. Here, the percentage of foreign voting seemed an exception, mainly motivated by the desire of the outside to influence the result given the result of the first round, and the low turnout compared to the internal allowed it to be raised relatively.

An important note of the run-off result is that the difference between the two competitors did not change much, as Erdogan's votes increased by about 600,<> votes and Kılıçdaroğlu less than a million votes, which means that neither of them could win the majority of votes that went to the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, or let's say that Ogan's bloc did not move in a unified or large way for either of them and therefore its impact was very limited in the result.

The main observation in the run-off is that the turnout in the Kurdish-majority areas as well as the voting rate for Kılıçdaroğlu have declined significantly, and something similar can be said about some major cities with an influential "Kurdish" voice, such as Istanbul, and the Turkish president even increased the number of votes in the Kurdish-majority provinces slightly, which means that the opposition candidate has paid the price for his alliance with the far-right Victory Party and signing an understanding with him that upset the supporters of the HDP.

Kılıçdaroğlu's continued progress in a number of important major cities, notably Istanbul and Ankara, suggests that the municipal elections in March will be a major challenge for the AKP, especially if the six-table alliance continues.

Rebounds

The recent elections were exceptional in Turkey and very different from all previous ones, so the stakes on them were high enough to expect repercussions for their results on various parties, and therefore they have long been described as fateful.

In the first place, despite the victory and the euphoria of victory, the Turkish president will not fail to reconsider the result of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which fell in the legislative elections by 7% from the last elections, which was originally down 7% from the previous elections in 2011. This continuous hemorrhage in the popularity of the ruling party and voting for it is a worrying phenomenon that will need to stand in front of it and try to remedy it, otherwise the challenge in the upcoming elections will be very different, especially with the different form of the opposition, its alliances and the backgrounds of its parties recently.

On the other hand, Kılıçdaroğlu added to his record of further defeat to Erdogan, but this time with hopes and expectations of a great possibility of winning and after he imposed his candidacy despite objections to his party and then at the six-party table. Therefore, the result is expected to have repercussions within the CHP, and some of the man's statements after the first round and after the run-off result can easily be interpreted as directed at his opponents within the party before Erdogan and the Jahmour alliance.

Finally, there are good question marks about the fate of the opposition six-party table, as on the one hand it lost the main idea that brought its parties together, which is to return the country to the parliamentary system that needed a majority of parliament, and its candidate lost the presidential elections. On the other hand, some features of discontent in the opposition alliance and a state of blame and differences were hidden from view as much as possible until the run-off so as not to affect its results.

However, the fact that Kılıçdaroğlu came out alone in his speech after the result, and that his allies came out with separate statements, clearly indicates that the underlying differences are likely to come out in public soon, which means that the unity of the six-party table will be at stake in the next phase.