【Commentary】A few days ago, the 2023 Greater Bay Area Science Forum is being held in Guangzhou. At the biomedicine and health sub-forum, Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, gave answers and the latest research and judgment on topics such as the recent increase in the number of new coronavirus infections.
Zhong Nanshan said that judging by many materials, there was a small peak of new crown virus infection at the end of April and early May, which we expected. Based on the predictions of the SEIRS model, Zhong Nanshan speculated that the peak of the second wave of the new crown epidemic in 4 occurred at the end of June, and the number of infected people was about 5 million per week.
【During the same period】Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering
At present, everyone knows that by the end of April and the beginning of May, then there is now a small peak (of new coronavirus infection), and this small peak is indeed what we expected, and it should be admitted. So let's see, this is our forecast, (but) may not be accurate, one is the SEIRS model, on the left SEIRS model, at that time considering that there was a peak in April, the end of May may be 4 million nationwide (number of infections) every week, the end of June may be 5 million, this is our forecast.
Academician Zhong Nanshan believes that China's epidemic prevention and control strategy has been adjusted from preventing infection in the past to preventing severe disease now, but for patients with underlying diseases, infection should be prevented. Zhong Nanshan gave an example that the death of new crown infected people is often caused by the aggravation of underlying diseases caused by the new crown virus. Therefore, in the face of the peak of XBB variant infection that may gradually increase, people with underlying diseases and the elderly should strengthen wide coverage vaccination to prevent infection.
【During the same period】Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering
Now Omicron's death is often caused by the new coronavirus, which exacerbates his underlying illness. We analyzed nearly 900 critically ill patients in Guangzhou last year, and found that less than 50% of them had severe pneumonia in the respiratory system, so now is the time for all patients with underlying diseases. To prevent infection, not severe disease. Because of many such patients, after he is infected, the original underlying disease will worsen, and he calls for speeding up the vaccination of some wide-coverage vaccines. In the face of the possible small peak of XBB (new coronavirus infection), it is important for us to prevent infection for these vulnerable groups.
On May 5, the World Health Organization (WHO) advisory group made recommendations on this year's new crown vaccine booster update, proposing that the new vaccine should mainly target the currently dominant variant XBB. Zhong Nanshan revealed that two vaccines that can cover the XBB variant have been preliminarily approved and will soon be available, and three or four more will be approved soon.
【During the same period】Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering
How to protect? One is to develop better vaccines, especially for XBB variants, which now have many types in China, XBB.1.1, XBB.1.5.1, XBB.1.9.1, which is more in Guangzhou, and some others. But now that some vaccines have been developed to cover this [XBB variant], two have already been preliminarily approved, and now three or four more are about to be approved soon, so we have to be prepared. Second, we need to develop some safer and more effective vaccines, and we should be able to lead the world.
Zhong Nanshan sighed that we cannot settle once and for all, because the virus changes too quickly, we must be prepared to develop safer vaccines. He believes that if there are new public health events in the future, China will have the ability to produce a vaccine in a very short time.
Reporting by reporters He Junjie and Wang Jian from Guangzhou
Responsible Editor: [Luo Pan]