Transition to the new corona "Class 5" Chairman Omi: "Corona is not over"

It has been nearly three and a half years since the appearance of the new coronavirus.
On May 3, the new coronavirus was treated the same as the influenza that spreads every year under the Infectious Diseases Act, and countermeasures were left to individuals.

What will happen to the corona infection in the future and how should we respond to it?

Shigeru Omi, chairman of the government subcommittee, which has been at the forefront of countermeasures as an expert, emphasizes that "the coronavirus is not over."

We asked Mr. Omi, who says, "We have been fighting a very tough virus," how the coronavirus is reflected now.

In Japan, as the number of infected people increases, the number of deaths increases

Q.The status under the Infectious Diseases Act has shifted to "Class 5," which is the same as seasonal influenza, but is it correct to assume that the risk of the new coronavirus has decreased?

A.Looking back at the transition from the first wave to the eighth wave of infections, the fatality rate due to infection has been decreasing with each spread of infection in Japan.

Many people may have the impression that this has caused them to get a normal disease.

A.However, in reality, Japan is characterized by a super-aging society, and the volume of infections increases, which increases the number of people who die.

In fact, the eighth wave killed the most people so far.

First of all, I would like you to know this fact.

In the UK, deaths decrease with each wave of infections

Q.Will the spread of infection continue and the number of people dying will increase?

A.Currently, we can see the trend of the spread of infection little by little.

I think everyone wants to know what will happen to the infection in the future.

After that, there are various possibilities such as whether the virus will go to zero, whether it will continue to return, or whether it will calm down.

What I think will be helpful in thinking about this is the situation in the UK.

In stark contrast to Japan, the UK saw a tremendous number of infections in the first half of the pandemic, the medical crunch became quite serious, and many people died.

More than 80% of the population has already experienced infection.

In Japan, only about 40% of the population is infected, and I think it can be said that the UK is a country where infections are ahead of Japan.

Since it is not possible to know the exact number of infected people in both the United Kingdom and Japan, if you look at the changes in the number of deaths that are correctly understood to some extent, the number of people who die in the UK is gradually decreasing every time a wave of infection occurs.

A. I think this may be the case that the UK is heading in the direction of "endemic".

"Endemic" is a word that refers to a situation where infections have settled to a certain level in the community.

* Endemic: A state in which infection continues to occur in a specific area. In the case of the new coronavirus, it indicates that the infection has settled down to a certain level in the region from the state of the "pandemic" that is prevalent worldwide.

* As of May 5, the cumulative number of infected people in Japan is about 7.3380 million, and the cumulative number of deaths is about 7,4700 (data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare). According to the results of antibody tests, the percentage of people with antibodies indicating that they were infected with the new coronavirus in Japan was about 3% as of March.

What will happen Japan from now on?

Q.Do you think Japan will be in the same direction as the UK?

A.First of all, I think we need to pay close attention to what will happen to the ninth wave in the future.

If the number of people dying here exceeds the eighth wave, I think it is unlikely that they will become "endemic" immediately.

Immunity gained through infection and vaccines declines over time.

Since the percentage of people infected in Japan is small, I think there is a possibility that after several outbreaks over a period of about six months to one year, it will become "endemic" like the UK.

In the future, it is necessary to avoid a situation where the level of infection in the region rises and the number of people dying due to the pressure of medical care increases.

The people who suffer the most damage are the elderly, so I think how to reduce the number of infections here is an issue that we should all think about.

What we've learned is valid

Q. How do you think we should respond?

A.The government and experts will continue to disseminate information about infections and the state of medical care, so I think we will be able to understand when the number of people dying due to medical care is increasing.

If that happens, I think it is possible for each individual to make an individual decision to refrain from actions with a high risk of infection based on such information.

We have learned a lot about "what behaviors and situations have a high risk of infection" from our experience over the past three and a half years.

Although there is no need to shut down society and the economy again, I believe that responding to the spread of infections that puts pressure on medical care will continue to be an effective measure, including masks.

"We've been fighting a very tough virus."

Q.You have been responding immediately after the outbreak of the new coronavirus, but how can you summarize the measures taken so far?

A.I feel that we have fought a very tough virus.

When SARS broke out in 2003, I was in charge of the WHO.

At the time, I thought it was a really difficult time, but now that I think about it, I was able to control the virus in just about seven months.

We were able to control it because SARS was a disease that had the characteristic of infecting people after symptoms appeared.

On the other hand, the new coronavirus is the same coronavirus as SARS, but it has the property of being transmitted from asymptomatic people to others.

This is the root cause of the difficulty of dealing with the new coronavirus and an essential feature of the virus.

When we found out about this characteristic at a relatively early stage, we were aware that it was a stubborn virus, but to be honest, we didn't expect it to be such a long response.

* SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome): An infectious disease caused by the SARS coronavirus, which was first reported in Guangdong Province in southern China in November 7. It causes pneumonia, etc. In 2002, the infection spread mainly in 11 countries and regions, including Asia and Canada. More than 2003,32 people were infected and about 8000 died. The WHO declared an end to the system in July 800.

SARS coronavirus

Q.What did you find difficult in dealing with the new coronavirus?

A.At the beginning of the outbreak of the new coronavirus, society responded with a sense of unity, but as we learned more about the coronavirus, people's perspectives differed depending on their positions and values.

Some people think that it is a serious disease that can lead to death, while others think that it is "the same as a cold" and not a big deal.

In fact, both ideas are true, and it has become clear that it is indeed a virus that looks different from person to person.

In the process of thinking about countermeasures, it became impossible to say that we would find one optimal solution for many people.

I think it is a difficult disease.

Experts who continued to transmit What was their intention?

Expert meeting on February 2020, 2

(On February 2020, 2, Chairman Omi and other members of the expert panel at the time announced their own views that "the next one to two weeks will be the brink of a rapid spread of infections" and called for countermeasures.) Since then, the opinions and recommendations that are independently published have attracted a lot of attention, such as live broadcast of expert press conferences)

Q.Expert members have continued to communicate independently since the beginning of the outbreak in 24. There is also criticism that the experts have come to the fore too much. What was the intention?

A.With the coronavirus response that began in earnest around February 1, the government was especially busy with the response of cruise ships, which were experiencing clusters at the time.

However, we experts thought that the spread of the new coronavirus in Japan was inevitable, and that we should switch to a response based on the assumption that it would enter the country instead of focusing on border measures.

Since I had experience in dealing with the 2 new influenza pandemic, I submitted to the government almost all the measures I thought were necessary based on conditioned reflexes.

Not doing it was not an option.

In addition, I began to communicate what I thought was necessary as an expert.

However, as a result, as we repeatedly presented our views and recommendations, it was sometimes perceived as if experts were making judgments about countermeasures.

It is true that experts have become "leaning forward", and at the time there was no other way out.

However, if this is true, I think it was necessary to firmly create a system in which experts would make scientific evaluations and propose countermeasures, and the government would make a final decision based on them, and explain the reasons for the decision in an easy-to-understand manner.

The Role of Governments and Experts During the Pandemic

(In the summer of 2021, just before the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, experts published a proposal as a "volunteer group" to hold the Games without spectators.) It was at a time when a fifth wave of infections was about to occur. At the press conference announcing the recommendations, Chairman Omi said, "There is definitely a risk of the spread of infection by holding the Games, and now that you have decided to hold the Games, I would like you to be fully aware of this risk and take measures to prevent it from spreading.")

Q.There were scenes where the government and experts seemed to be at odds.

A. In many cases, the government took our views into the measures, but there were some situations where we disagreed.

This is the case when we made a proposal calling for the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics to be held without spectators.

But we didn't have the option of not saying anything because of our relationship with the government.

I thought that it was the duty of an expert in a crisis to say what he had to say as an expert based on scientific analysis, and that if he did not fulfill it, he would not be able to withstand the "judgment of history."

When things are happening in the present, it is natural that there are various parties and different opinions will emerge.

I think it's natural that there are negative voices in the opinions of experts.

However, in the future, when we look back on this corona crisis, we must avoid being evaluated as "infectious disease experts neglected their role at that time."

Whenever I was asked to make a big decision about whether to express my opinion as an expert, I always thought about whether I could stand the judgment of history.

Lessons not learned from the "new flu" to prevent a repeat

Q.Initiatives for the next pandemic, such as organizations with new control tower functions for infectious diseases, have begun.
What do you look for?

A.This has been said many times, but after the response to the "new influenza" was completed in 2009, a "general meeting" was held to review the countermeasures, and there were insufficient capacity to perform PCR tests, problems with the medical system, and issues with risk communication by the government. We've compiled a report calling for action for the next pandemic.

Almost all of the issues that were a problem in the early days of the outbreak of the new coronavirus were pointed out there.

Unfortunately, in the more than 2009 years since 10, due in part to the change of government and large-scale disasters, this lesson has been largely ignored, and we have rushed into the response to the novel coronavirus with a lack of preparation.

I don't think we should repeat this same thing.

In the three and a half years of dealing with the new coronavirus, many people have had a hard time, such as young people being deprived of their precious youth.

We must make sure that this experience is never wasted.

In order to prepare for the next pandemic, I think it is necessary to move forward with discussions now.

If strong responses are required, such as the rapid deterioration of the infection situation, the tightening of medical care, or the emergence of new mutant strains with different characteristics, we will continue to analyze and evaluate them as needed at expert meetings of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

In such cases, subcommittees may have discussions as necessary.

While exchanging information and opinions among experts, we will continue to monitor the situation.

The WHO's declaration of a state of emergency has ended, and the new corona has moved to Class 3 in Japan, but it does not mean that the corona is over yet.

What we've learned over the past three years or so that everyone in the Japan has had a really hard time is how this virus spreads and how we can reduce the risk of infection.

I think we should make use of this in our future "individual judgments."