Taiwan on a hot tin. Will the Ukraine scenario be repeated? And what would happen if China attacked it?

Hot weather prevails in the Taiwan Strait region these days due to China's military moves, which have reached advanced progress with the announcement of a no-fly zone in northern Taiwan, of which China considers an integral part. So what awaits the Taiwan Strait?

The tension came after U.S. intelligence revealed it had reports that the Chinese military planned to take control of Taiwan by 2027. China announced a half-hour no-fly zone north of Taiwan next week, as Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that his country would defend what he described as its territorial sovereignty and develop its military capabilities.

Strong opposition

For his part, David Sidney, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for National Security Affairs in Asia, said in his speech to the program "Beyond the News" (2023/4/12) that the rulers of Beijing are trying to break the will and resistance of the Taiwanese people, who have become more hostile against China, indicating that as long as there is a strong opposition will in Taiwan, it will be difficult to overcome them and seize their land.

From Beijing's point of view, journalist and political researcher Rong Huan said that the message of these military moves is directed at the separatists in Taiwan and the forces supporting them, in order to warn them and show China's firm determination to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the homeland, and the moves are a simulation of field fighting for the unity of the country.

He also explained that these exercises come after provocations from separatists in Taiwan, stressing the ability of the Chinese military to carry out the task of unifying the country, and that China will stand in the way of any attempts to independence Taiwan or the entry of US forces to the island.

Ukraine or Taiwan?

In an approach between what is happening in Taiwan and Ukraine, the journalist specialized in American affairs, Muhammad Al-Minshawi, said that the Ukrainian case is easier, because it has a long land border that facilitated the Russian invasion and control of part of Ukrainian territory, while in the Taiwanese case, it is difficult because it is an island more than 100 kilometers from the Chinese mainland.

He ruled out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, because they are aware of the consequences of the move on Chinese interests and its position in the world, as well as the conflict that will be created against it by America and Western countries that affirm support for Taiwan and support its position as an independent country from China.

Actual combat

The Chinese president said Beijing would defend its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, adding that military training and comprehensive development of Chinese forces should be stepped up in anticipation of any actual fighting.

On the U.S. front, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. goal was peace, security and stability, not a new Cold War or containing China.

CIA Director William Burns, commenting on reports of Chinese plans to invade Taiwan, said it was imperative that the United States take China's desire to control Taiwan very seriously, even if military conflict is not the inevitable outcome.