A few days ago, the US Department of Defense announced a plan to withdraw some of its modern fighter jets from the Middle East and replace them with old and less efficient ones, known as the A-10 aircraft, which are of an old generation of fighter aircraft that began production in the early seventies of the last century, and its combat capabilities are not compared to modern generations of fighter aircraft.

The United States is constantly replacement, redeployment, and distribution of its equipment and troops across its military bases around the world. But this time it looks different, because it's not just about replacing older planes with older ones, which is not without significance, but also because it comes within the framework of what was said to be "a broader U.S. plan to keep limited naval and land forces in the Middle East," according to the Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials.

It is not surprising that the United States still enjoys a heavy military presence in the region, whether in terms of the number of troops, which exceeds more than 30,<> soldiers distributed among a number of military bases scattered in the countries of the region, whether in the Persian Gulf or in Iraq, Syria and Turkey.

The news has raised many questions about U.S. plans to withdraw from the Middle East, and whether this region is no longer of real strategic importance to America's interests, especially since the planes that have been withdrawn will be sent to other areas of influence in order to deter China and Russia, according to the Wall Street Journal. Is the United States already planning to withdraw from the Middle East, and has the countdown to the more than half-century U.S. presence in the region begun?

The truth is that the United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, and does not plan to do so in the near future, for several reasons:

First, this region is still of great strategic importance to the United States because of its vital interests there, which are always summarized in the "box" of interests:

  • Maintaining the continued flow of oil from the region, which contributes about 30% of global oil production, without problems or obstacles that may affect the global economy, and therefore the US economy.
  • Providing military, security, and logistical support to Washington's most important ally in the region, Israel.
  • Deter Iran and ensure that it does not acquire a nuclear weapon at any cost.
  • Hunting down and fighting extremist organizations that have been in conflict with the United States for more than two decades.

Now a new factor can be added to these factors that increases the strategic importance of the region for the United States, which is related to confronting Chinese influence, and to a lesser extent Russian influence, which has expanded in the region in an unprecedented way, and we have seen some of its features and effects during the past months and weeks, whether through the mediation carried out by China in resolving the crisis between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or the Russian mediation between Saudi Arabia and the Syrian regime, which paves the way for the resumption of relations between these countries. The United States considers the Arab region its backyard and a sphere of influence in which no other global power can compete, let alone replace, regardless of how realistic and moral this proposition is or not.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the United States still enjoys a heavy military presence in the region, whether in terms of the number of troops, which exceeds more than 30,<> soldiers distributed among a number of military bases scattered in the countries of the region, whether in the Persian Gulf or in Iraq, Syria and Turkey.

U.S. Fifth Fleet Command remains in Bahrain and plays an important role in the deployment of naval and air forces to the Asia-Indian Ocean region. Not to mention the air defense missile systems, especially Patriot missile batteries, as well as two warships stationed in the region. It is true that these figures have witnessed a decline over the past years, but they are also still large and effective, and their military, war, intelligence and logistical activities have not stopped throughout the past period.

On the contrary, there is an increase in US military activity in the region, whether through the military exercises it carries out with the countries of the region, whether in the Gulf, Egypt or Israel, or through the occasional strikes it carries out against ISIS or militias affiliated with Iran in Syria and Iraq, especially if they attack US forces in the region, as happened a few days ago in the Hasakah region in northeastern Syria.

So there is no American withdrawal from the region, but there is what we can call "strategic repositioning", which means the redeployment of the United States in the region in other forms and ways, as part of the redistribution of surplus American power to areas of influence and conflict around the world. It is an issue related to the state of global liquidity, the qualitative shift in the conflictual pattern that resulted from the Russian war on Ukraine, as well as the global rise of China, which has become a source of real threat and concern for Washington.

In practical terms, the process of American repositioning in the region means, among other things, the change in US national security priorities as a result of the changing system of threats, challenges, and security and strategic risks to America. There is currently an American conviction that the Chinese threat outweighs and surpasses the system of dangers in the Middle East, especially the Iranian threat.

This was made abundantly clear in the U.S. National Security Strategy, released last October, which identified China as a strategic challenge and threat to America that must be taken seriously. This is confirmed by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's statements about Chinese threats, the latest of which was a few days ago when he indicated that the US military must be prepared for a confrontation with China, while submitting the US Department of Defense budget to Congress, in which he called for increasing the amount allocated to build the US military's military capabilities in the Pacific as well as increasing support for the protection of US allies to about $ 9 billion, an increase of 40% over last year.

Second, America's strategic repositioning in the region means relying more on regional allies to deal with security and strategic challenges. That is why last January we witnessed the largest joint military exercises between the US and Israeli militaries and the development of a scenario simulating the possibility of military strikes against Iran.

Third, U.S. repositioning also means rebuilding the region's security architecture so that Israel is integrated into it to play a pivotal role in providing protection to U.S. allies in the region, especially in the Persian Gulf, despite many skepticisms on this issue. Over the past two years, we have witnessed increasing steps in air defense cooperation between Israel and a number of Arab countries, particularly with regard to countering Iranian drones, whether they come through Yemen, Iraq and Syria. Security and logistical coordination between Israel and a number of Arab countries, both those that have official relations with Tel Aviv and those that communicate with it behind the scenes, has also increased.

Finally, American repositioning means trying to cool regional files in order to reduce conflicts in the region. We have witnessed cases of this cooling during the past two years, which have increased dramatically during the past weeks, whether at the level of Iranian-Saudi relations, Saudi-Syrian relations, or Egyptian-Turkish relations, as well as calming the file of Yemen, Libya and Sudan, albeit to varying degrees.

In summary, what is happening now is not a U.S. withdrawal, as some think, but a strategic repositioning that will have its aftermath. The United States cannot afford to withdraw from the Middle East, otherwise it will have hammered the first nail in the coffin of the end of its imperial throne, not only in the region, but in the entire world.