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Everything is weird.

It is rare that of the three films signed by the two or only one of those who call themselves the Daniels (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) the one that is going to take the glory is the worst (run to see on Filmin The death of

, by Scheinert).

It's rare that a comedy -- in addition to an action film, family melodrama, and even simple raving -- suddenly becomes the benchmark for a happily transgender Hollywood.

It is rare that no one remembers the full name of the Daniels without going to IMDB.

But sometimes weird is the most normal thing in the world.

Movie

Except for a cataclysm, an epidemic or a new war on the Western front, nobody can handle

.

Only the Golden Globes and the Baftas (some are far away on the calendar and the others thousands of kilometers from Hollywood) resisted him.

The other awards, be it for producers, directors, actors, the independent Spirits... They have all been theirs.

To date, only

he was capable of the dubious feat of winning it all before and then losing at the Oscars.

And why did she like it so much?

In the first place, and although in Spain nobody found out (you have to go to position 84 at the box office in 2022 to find it), in the United States it has been the great success of independent cinema.

In addition, and if you look closely, it is not such a strange film either: it is simply, and again, a story of family reconciliation.

And finally, the Daniels' film, among many other things, what it talks about is the power of cinema to transform the imagination and life itself.

Or so it seems to have been understood by a Hollywood that has seen in it the perfect combination between a new look from the margins and the usual commercial formula (don't forget that the producers are the Russo brothers, from The

, those of Marvel).

Will Win

:

, by Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.

Should Win

:

, by Ruben Östlund.

Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan. Chris Pizzello

Director

The Daniels again.

The reasons that will make them the best directors of the year are in the paragraph above.

They have won it all: up to 40 warm-up awards are theirs, where those given by both directors and critics are listed.

They have already made history by being the fourth couple in history to be nominated, they still need to become the third pair to get the statuette(s).

The fact that they compete with the most frequently nominated director, Spielberg, adds curiosity and, above all, rarity, which is what it is about.

Will Win

: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for

.

Should Win

: Ruben Östlund for

.

'Elvis'.

lead actor

In this category, in the absence of an actor in

nominated, things get complicated.

Everything indicates that the winner will be Austin Butler for his role in

.

The rule says that it is rare for an interpreter to take the statuette if his film is not among the best.

And that is what rules out his rival Brendan Fraser, who despite winning in the vote for actors, his film (

) does not hold up.

Third in contention is Colin Farrell, winner of the Volpi Cup in Venice for

.

We will see.

Will Win

: Austin Butler for

.

Should Win

: Bill Nighy for

.

Cate Blanchett.PATRICK T. FALLONAFP

Principal actress

Here the thing is between two and, in addition, it is very hot.

Michelle Yeoh (

) had to delete a mention in the networks in which she came to say that it is enough that the usual ones win, that if her rival is white, that if her rival is pure establishment, What if his rival is... Cate Blanchett (

).

And so.

Until a few days ago, the Australian was the sure winner, but the Daniels gale came and the forecasts trembled.

It will be nice to hear the thank you speech win one or the other.

Will Win

: Michelle Yeoh for

.

Should Win

: Ana de Armas for

.

Ke Huy Quan. Dana Pleasant

Supporting actor

Rain or shine, Plug, Data or whatever you want to call it is the sure winner.

Ke Huy Quan gave up his acting career in the 1990s when he realized that his Asian features doomed him to being the secondary of the secondary he eats with chopsticks in the background in the third sequence.

And so the kid from

and

disappeared.

And so until in 2022 he returned to

.

Will Win

: Ke Huy Quan for

.

Should Win

: Brendan Gleeson for

.

Jamie Lee Curtis receives the Best Supporting Actress Award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.Chris Pizzello

Supporting Actress

At the feet of Jamie Lee Curtis.

In this category,

is doubled with Stephanie Hsu.

Let's say there could be one of those cases of firefighters stepping on the hose.

The actors union chose the queen of screams ahead of the great favorite, Angela Bassett for

, and the statuette seems like a precious finishing touch for one of the most beloved, emblematic and foul-mouthed actresses that has ever lived. been able Hollywood.

Will win

: Angela Bassett for

.

Should Win

: Jamie Lee Curtis for

.

Original screenplay

All Together:

.

It is even pathetic that in the face of the epic viscerality of

, the amusing depth of

or the eschatological clairvoyance of

, it is again the occurrences of the Daniels that triumph.

But times are what they are.

The writers themselves have been clear.

Will Win

: Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for

.

Should Win

: Ruben Östlund for

.

Sarah Polley.STEPHANE DE SAKUTINAFP

adapted script

Everything indicates that it is time for Sarah Polley for her work adapting the novel by Miriam Toews.

Of the nominees,

is together with

and

which also appear in the best film section.

We discard the pilot for noise (and stupidity) and we are left with the two themes of our time: war and women.

Win the second.

Will Win

: Sarah Polley for

.

Should Win

: Sarah Polley for

.

'All Quiet Ahead'.Netflix

international film

Who do you love more, the Golden Globes or the Baftas?

Yes to the first,

;

yes to the seconds, the latest Netflix bet that, after trying with Iñárritu, has been left with

as the best option.

Our hearts go out to Santiago Mitre's film, but the 9 nominations (including best film) make Edward Berger's anti-war film almost certain to win.

Will Win

:

, by Edward Berger.

Should win

:

, by Santiago Mitre.

Photography

Here you also have to choose between two: either the elegiac tone, a deep gray supported by an overwhelming depth of field, from

or the plethoric, pompous and retinal-defibrillating color of

.

James Friend vs. Mandy Walker.

A fact: last year Ari Wegner was one step away from becoming the first woman (she was the third to try) to win in this category.

Fourth time, perhaps, the charm.

Will Win

: James Friend for

.

Should Win

: Mandy Walker for

.

Mounting

Nobody can with the convoluted and extremely complicated work of Paul Rogers for

.

Maybe, just maybe, the powerful noise of colliding planes like plate tectonics in a boxing ring that Eddie Hamilton achieves in

will manage to show its head.

But Rogers wins.

Will Win

: Paul Rogers for

.

Should Win

: Eddie Hamilton for

.

Soundtrack

Here the duel is between the precision and rigor of Volker Bertelmann in

, always aware of the protagonist's anguish, and the frenetic and encyclopedic majesty of Justin Hurwitz in

, where the old and the modern fit, the melodic and the twelve-tone.

Will Win

: Volker Bertelmann for

.

Should Win

: Volker Bertelmann for

.

'Top Gun: Maverick'.

Sound

War noise.

The anti-war

vs. the very bellicose abs from

.

This is the beautiful duel of sound couplings in an uncertain category.

If we trust what has already been voted by the guild: the noise of war engines wins.

Will Win

: Mark Weingarten, James Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor for

.

Should Win

: Viktor Prasil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte for

.

'RRR'.

Song

Neither Rihanna with her

from

nor Lady Gaga and her

from

.

Here she plays the visceral and gleefully hysterical

, from

.

It doesn't matter if you haven't had the patience to endure the three delirious hours of testosterone in

, after a minute you already know how to hum the chorus.

Will win

: MM Keeravani for

, from

.

Should Win

: MM Keeravani for

's

.

'Babylon'.

Production design

Complicated to decide.

Put to respect logic, the recreation of Hollywood in its time of cumbersome splendor does not seem to have a rival.

Hollywood eats Hollywood.

But this year there are more incentives, more elements that can twist the wrist of common sense.

war

effort in

' baroque delirium

are big words.

Will win

: Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino for

.

Should Win

: Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper for

.

Locker room

Here Catherine Martin (winner already for

and for

is a few lengths ahead of her rivals.

Her very unfaithful (or very faithful to the desire of how we would have wanted them to be) reconstruction of the 50s together with the meticulous reinvention of the Las Vegas

in

simply overwhelms.

The thing about

that surprised so much at the time, this year seems as terribly ugly as it always was.

Will Win

: Catherine Martin for

.

Should Win

: Catherine Martin for

.

Makeup and hairdressing

Prosthesis against prosthesis.

Brendan Fraser's exaggerated double chin against Austin Butler's amphetamine paunch.

This seems to be the great lipid and very masculine duel that has been waged on the voters' ballots.

Positions to choose:

.

Will Win

: Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti for

.

Should Win

: Naomi Donne, Michael Marino, and Michael Fontaine for

.

'Avatar: the sense of water'.

Visual effects

If the multi-million dollar new installment of

doesn't win this category, the world, all of it, will stop spinning.

It is not a prophecy, it is a warning from James Cameron and, beware, this man is always right.

Will win

: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett for

.

Should Win

: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett for

.

'Pinocchio'.

animated feature film

The key this year is the

technique .

And Guillermo del Toro's

, which is also on Netflix, is the most natural and obvious choice.

The brilliant, timely and very heartfelt argument in favor of life and against fascism (all of that is the Mexican film) deserves it.

Of course, there is

, by Dean Fleischer-Camp, who mixes real action and

to contradict him for being fun and simply beautiful.

Will Win

:

, by Guillermo del Toro.

Should Win:

, by Dean Fleischer-Camp.

'Navalny'.

documentary feature

Few categories are as exciting as non-fiction this year.

On the one hand, there is the clear favorite because the times we live in say so.

, by Daniel Roher, is pure and very successful classicism.

And in front of him, stands

, by Laura Poitras, as the most brilliant revelation of the year.

And all of this without forgetting the poetic rapture of

, by Sara Dosa.

The first two mentioned have been distributing the prizes since their respective releases.

The first swept Sundance and the second in Venice.

But now is the time to shout loud and clear against Putin.

Will win:

, by Daniel Roher.

Should Win:

, by Laura Poitras.

'I pupiled him'.

fiction short film

In the section in which up to four Spanish titles were shortlisted (without reaching the nomination), the important thing is to be noticed.

And no one has done it with as much enthusiasm as

, the film by the Italian director, a regular at the Cannes Film Festival Alice Rohrwacher.

Produced by Alfonso Cuarón, the Disney machinery (it is visible on its platform) has been committed as few times.

That and the fact that the tape is truly wonderful seem like sufficient reasons.

Will win:

, Alice Rohrwacher.

Should Win:

, by Tom Berkeley and Ross White

animated short film

Posts to choose one of the impressive works of the category, that of the Portuguese João Gonzalez 'Ice vendors'.

After winning at Cannes, the dizzying 2D feat of a father and son fallen from heaven has done the same in up to nine film festivals in a row.

The Anglo-Saxon press (and Apple), which knows how to apply pressure, instead favors the work of illustrator Charlie Mackesy,

.

Will Win:

, by Peter Baynton and Charlie Mackesy.

Should Win:

, by João Gonzalez

'Haulout'.

documentary short film

Here is a good one, excellent even, and a very famous one... but bad.

Guess who will win.

The good one is

, by Maxim Arbugaev and Evgenia Arbugaeva, and which approaches the consequences of global warming without didactyms or alarming messages, simply getting into the depths of the wound.

The camera is there, the madness of the animals due to the lack of ice on the other side and for each one to judge.

Prodigious disaster that is already here.

The famous one is

by Joshua Seftel, about a marine determined to shamelessly murder the Arabs he hates so much until he meets them and sees that they are nice people.

Luckily he liked them.

Then there's the one that looks easy on Netflix:

, by Kartiki Gonsalves, and that it is beautiful.

Will win:

, by Joshua Seftel.

Should Win:

, by Maxim Arbugaev and Evgenia Arbugaeva.

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