[Thorough analysis] What is President Putin's intention in the Russian army now?

February 24, 21:59

It's been a year since Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Russian army has brought great casualties to Ukraine with its overwhelming military power, but the battle has been prolonged in front of Ukraine's counteroffensive, which has received military support from Europe and the United States.

Russian casualties are said to have reached 200,000.

Digital analysis of a huge amount of public information, such as videos posted on SNS and records of President Putin's remarks, reveals the reality of "Putin's army" that runs wild while making countless sacrifices under the cause of "for the sake of the motherland." I came to see

(NHK Special "Survey Report: Russian Army-What's in 'Putin's Army'?" Reporting Team)

"It's almost over," the heartbreaking cries of the 'besieged' soldiers

Since September 2022, the Russian army has been forced to withdraw one after another from the Eastern Front in the face of the Ukrainian army's reversal offensive.

At this time, the Russian army suffered a fatal defeat in the Battle of Liman, Donetsk Oblast.

The 5,000-strong troop was surrounded, and it was an unusual situation in which the Russian army officially accepted its withdrawal.

An analysis of more than 80 local videos that were shared on social media and the media during the month leading up to the withdrawal reveals how the Russian forces defending Liman were not allowed to withdraw and were driven into a corner.

"Liman is still defending itself today. It is now going door-to-door looking for enemy operatives."

As Ukrainian forces began marching toward Liman, Russian media reported that the Russian military's defenses were solid.

But two weeks later, in late September, footage showed Russian military officers already telling the media that there was no way to fight back.

"The situation is serious, very serious. Stockpiles, equipment, people, artillery (lack of)."

Around the same time, footage was also found of Russian soldiers barricading themselves in the streets of Liman and posting them on social media.

"I don't know where allied support is coming from. There's only one rifle here. I'm not lying. It's really empty."

By this time, the Russian forces had already been cornered by Ukrainian forces who had launched an offensive from the outskirts of Liman.

Visualizing the movement of Ukrainian forces on the Eastern Front on a map, showing areas held and invaded by Russian forces in red, and areas claimed to be recaptured by Ukrainian forces in blue, shows that in just two weeks, Russian forces will be attacked from the north and south. It turned out to be surrounded.

On September 30, an estimated 5,000 Russian troops were surrounded by Ukrainian forces without retreating.

Russian military audio, which Ukraine said was intercepted, showed a man, believed to be a Russian soldier, saying his final goodbyes to his wife.

"We are under siege. It's almost over. I just called to say goodbye."

On October 1, when the Ukrainian Defense Ministry released the audio, the Russian military officially announced that "troops have withdrawn to more favorable locations" and Liman was recaptured by Ukrainian forces.

A video released by the Ukrainian side showed the tragic appearance of Russian soldiers abandoned on the road in the city of Liman.

Why did the Russian army try so hard to defend Liman?

In fact, just before this, four provinces, including Donetsk, held a "referendum" to proceed with unilateral annexation to Russia, and on September 30, President Putin announced the annexation of these four provinces. .

Experts believe that the Liman forces were not allowed to withdraw due to President Putin's desire to avoid being discouraged by the declaration of the annexation of the four provinces.

Lecturer Yu Koizumi, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo

"I wonder if they didn't want to spread the news of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Liman until they issued a statement on the annexation of the four provinces of Ukraine. Completely protect President Putin's face. I believe he was ordered to do so."

Leaving tanks that can still be used, "Rout" at the end of an unplanned operation

Furthermore, a closer look at videos and photos on social media reveals that many weapons were abandoned almost intact after the Russian army withdrew.

what does this mean.

A total of 813 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles have been lost on the Eastern Front in the three months since August last year, according to the international research team Oryx, which has been investigating the loss of Russian military weapons. .

This is a huge loss approaching the number held by Germany and France alone.

Of the 813 vehicles, 445, or more than half, had been recovered ready for use by the Ukrainian military.

Normally, tanks and other vehicles are destroyed before retreating to prevent them from being used by the enemy.

Investigative organization Oryx Jakub Yanowski said,

"Because the recovered equipment can be used by the enemy, it is a more painful loss for Russia than being destroyed. It is the best evidence that the Russian military high command proceeded with a haphazard operation. You can say

"I don't know who the commander is."

The “unplanned” reality of the Russian army is also evident in the words of Russian soldiers taken prisoner of war in Ukraine.

Prisoners of war whom we were allowed to interview under the control of the Ukrainian authorities, and prisoners of war interviewed by Ukrainian journalists, alleging that the disordered chain of command within the unit had caused chaos on the ground: told to

"We were not given any explanation about the position or deployment plan." (27-year-old machine gunner) "We

had no mission. We don't even know who our commander is." (44-year-old, machine gunner) Scout)

"My battalion commander ordered us to advance, but [the other units] had already started retreating. It was like dogs and garbage that everyone had retreated, leaving us behind." I felt like I was being treated like this, and I hated it.” (19 year old, machine gunner)

In addition, I transcribed and analyzed in detail the words spoken by 28 prisoners of war who were recorded in interviews with Ukrainian journalists.

It turned out that 24 out of 28 people said, "I don't trust the commander."

They were sent into the midst of the Ukrainian army's attack without a clear explanation, and many soldiers had a "mistrust" of the army.

The Russian military, which is said to have approximately 900,000 active-duty soldiers, consists of "professional soldiers," "contracted soldiers," and "conscripts."

The main force in the military invasion of Ukraine is said to be "contracted soldiers" who are hired in exchange for a salary for at least three years, but even among the "professional soldiers" who command units as officers, there is distrust. There are even some people who feel stronger and leave the military.

Are you conscious of the “long-term battle”?

Get inside Putin's head

The British Ministry of Defense, which analyzes the war situation in Ukraine, said that in the past year, the number of casualties among Russian soldiers and fighters of private military companies has ranged from 175,000 to 200,000, of which 200,000 died. The number is estimated to be between 40,000 and 60,000.

Why do we continue the war even though we have to pay so many sacrifices?

I decided to look for hints from President Putin's words.

Collected records of President Putin's remarks at meetings and diplomatic occasions published on the website of the Russian Presidential Office.

We analyzed 450,000 words of text from January 2022 to mid-February 2023 using a technique called "topic model" using AI (machine learning).

When we analyzed the themes (interests) that President Putin was talking about based on the relationships between the words that make up his remarks, we found that "international economy," "domestic economy," "international politics," and "domestic politics." There were six themes: "people's lives" and "military."

For example, for the theme of "international economy," "market," "gas," and "price," and for the theme of "military," "Ukraine," "military," "Donbass," and "operations," are important words. determined.

Focusing on the theme of "military" among these, we tallied up the number of times words on this theme were uttered each month.

Then, although it had decreased since February when the invasion began, after September 2022, when the defeat on the Eastern Front continued, a tendency to be used relatively frequently was seen again.

A more detailed analysis of the content of remarks on the theme of “military” reveals significant changes before and after September 2022.

Before September, the words “Ukraine,” “NATO,” and “safety” stood out, but since then, words that do not seem to have military themes, such as “people,” “history,” and “historical,” stand out. It was like

We asked Associate Professor Yukiko Hama of the University of Shizuoka, who specializes in Russian politics, to look at these data.

Ms. Hama believes that President Putin may have become aware of the "prolongation" of military aggression from around this time.

Yukiko Hama, Associate Professor at the University of Shizuoka : “

Before September, it

consisted of specific words such as fighting Ukraine or fighting NATO.

I get the impression that they are putting more effort into sending messages to the people

. But I have the impression that they are spending their energy talking so that the people, especially their supporters, will not leave."

As the analysis progressed, more notable trends emerged.

There was also a change in the use of words related to "Nazis."

Immediately after the start of the military invasion, President Putin unilaterally accused Ukraine's Zelensky administration of being a "neo-Nazi," and set the goal of the military invasion as "demilitarization" and "de-Naziization" of Ukraine.

However, since the war situation reached a stalemate in September 2022, President Putin's words "Nazis" and "Nazism" have become conspicuous in contexts that evoke memories of victory in the war against Germany and the Soviet Union and inspire soldiers and citizens.

In the history of Russia, which has been repeatedly invaded by foreign countries, the German-Soviet war against Nazi Germany about 80 years ago is called the "Great Patriotic War" and has a special meaning.

After the outbreak of war, Axis forces, including German forces, were closing in on Moscow and Volgograd (Stalingrad) in southern Russia.

The Soviet Union launched a desperate counterattack from the crisis of national survival and led to victory, and this history has become the basis of the national consciousness of "the homeland that our predecessors risked their lives to protect."

Associate Professor Yukiko Hama of the University of Shizuoka

: “As we prepare for a long-term war, we should overlap the memories of World War II and the war between Germany and the Soviet Union with this battle, and try to reinforce our own culture and values. Like the heroes of the Great Patriotic War, they united against Nazism at that time, so they will make similar sacrifices this time. Although it may come out, I feel that I am calling on the people to do their best."

After stating this, Mr. Hama points out that the term "Nazism" is "actually applicable to all threats coming from the West" and that it is necessary to pay close attention.

Yukiko Hama, Associate Professor, University of Shizuoka

: “I think we will continue to use words related to World War II and the German-Soviet war. There is no other effective tool.”

President Putin on a “pilgrimage” to various places

During the same period, Putin's behavior also changed.

The remarks record contains data on where the remarks were made, and by following this, the president's footsteps can be found to some extent.

Putin spends most of the year in the presidential palace in Moscow or in his own official residence.

President Putin frequently visits St. Petersburg, the second most populous city, eight times, and Sochi, a health resort where he owns a villa, eight times, but visits other places about once a month. However, since September 2022, he has frequently visited various places.

Mr. Hama points out that this move may be an indication that President Putin was conscious of a long-term war and was trying to solidify the support of neighboring countries.

Associate Professor Yukiko Hama

: “The former Soviet CIS countries, such as Iran, are relatively close to Russia and are asking for cooperation and response in an easy-to-understand manner. It is a movement that is quite conscious of going to such places to seek support and directly say, 'I haven't forgotten you' and 'I'm watching your contributions.' I think"

Is it really "war fatigue"?

The true feelings of the Russian people

As casualties continue to grow in both Russia and Ukraine, how do citizens living in Russia perceive this war?

According to a monthly poll conducted by the Levada Center, which continues to operate despite being designated as a "foreign agent" by the administration, as of December last year, the number of citizens who answered that they "support" the war was 70%, but 50% answered that ceasefire negotiations should be started, more than 40% answered that they should continue military operations, indicating that people's "war fatigue" is increasing. There are also results showing that

Looking at the search terms on Yandex, a major Russian search site, we see that they were used in the context of “recruitment/recruitment” and departures from the country until late September, when the Putin administration announced its policy of mobilizing reserve forces. There was a sharp increase in searches for “departure”.

On the other hand, we also found that the number of searches for words related to the German-Soviet war and history, such as “hero,” “motherland,” and “Soviet,” has been on the rise since September 2022.

Mr. Hama pointed out that propaganda by the administration had been repeated even before the military invasion started.

Associate Professor Yukiko Hama

“Since 2014, I have been writing a story about ``The Ukrainian regime, which is controlled by Western countries, has joined forces with neo-Nazi forces to oppress the people of Donbass. , the Russian people have been told repeatedly.I think there are a certain number of people who believe the story, and there are people who want to believe it.”

How long will Putin's war last?

On February 21, Putin delivered his first annual State of the Union address since the start of the military invasion, saying, "We will proceed step by step and cautiously in the special military operation to eliminate the threat from the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine and the challenges we face. We will steadily resolve the issue,” he said.

He justified the protracted military aggression again and asked the people for their understanding.

However, he barely touched on the war situation, and it was revealed that he had not achieved any noticeable results.

Hama points out that President Putin will likely appeal to the people's spirituality and emotions more and more in the future.

Associate Professor Yukiko Hama

: “Emotional mobilization cannot be ended once it is done.

At that time, the division between those who supported the war and those who opposed it, as well as the rift between those who left the country and those who steadily engaged in anti-war movements in the country, began to erode Russian society

.

It is a possible scenario that the whole will fall apart, and it is very worrisome."

What emerged from the analyzed data was the “real” of Russian soldiers forced into harsh battles, and the “emptiness” of President Putin's repeated ignorance of that reality.

How long will "Putin's war" last?

I can't see the end yet.

NHK Special "Investigation Report: Russian Army-What's in 'Putin's Army'-"

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