With the passage of two weeks since the catastrophe of the devastating earthquake that struck southern Turkey, the huge human losses and massive material damage provide an almost complete picture of the scale of the disaster that befell the country.
The painful loss of life cannot be compensated in any way, but providing the necessary support to those affected and initiating the process of rebuilding the stricken areas and benefiting from the harsh lessons of the disaster;
It can lead to a quick recovery from it.
Before this catastrophe, Turkey was facing major economic challenges due to inflation, but the earthquake has doubled the size of these challenges, and the country is waiting for another major national test represented by the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.
Which increases the pressure on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkey is a country strong enough to deal with all of these challenges, but a quick recovery from the disaster should be a major priority at this point.
During the past two weeks, relief efforts have focused in their initial stages on trying to rescue the largest number of survivors from under the rubble, and providing immediate aid to those affected with medical care, foodstuffs, and securing temporary shelters for them.
This phase was not without logistical difficulties due to the large scale of damage, great humanitarian needs, and poor natural conditions that complicated relief efforts. However, the second phase of the response is pivotal in efforts for a rapid recovery.
Opposition parties' criticism of the government's response was mainly driven by political and electoral calculations, but holding those likely responsible for the high casualty figures to account will be essential in the recovery process.
The second phase will operate on 3 parallel tracks, which are:
A full assessment of the size of the economic losses.
Develop an economic emergency plan to initiate reconstruction.
Benefit from the lessons of the disaster, including identifying the weaknesses that led to the exacerbation of human losses, and holding potential officials accountable for causing the loss of a large number of lives, as well as limiting the repercussions of the earthquake on the internal political situation, and providing appropriate conditions for holding elections within their constitutional dates or Postpone it if necessary.
Given that Turkey has not witnessed a natural disaster of this magnitude in its modern history, the recovery process will not be easy, but it is possible, and its success depends primarily on its good management.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not envy this difficult situation, as a major part of his national legacy is based on the great economic renaissance that he carried out over the two decades of his rule, and the development of Turkey's response to earthquakes by imposing strict standards on construction, modernizing infrastructure, and establishing an institution Natural Disaster Management (AFAD), and he certainly does not want this legacy to be crowned by failure to recover from this disaster, and the challenge he faces now is not only related to preserving this legacy, but also to limiting the repercussions of the earthquake disaster on his political future.
Reconstruction and its challenges
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had successful experiences in dealing with natural disasters during his rule, but all of them were small in terms of human and material losses.
Therefore, the recovery process from the February 6 earthquake faces great challenges, especially in the economic aspects.
Although it is still difficult to assess the final extent of the economic damage, recovery will require the reconstruction of the vast 500 square kilometers of the earthquake-damaged area, as well as the restoration of nearly a million residential buildings.
Estimates of economic losses still vary widely due to limited information on the extent of the damage, but the cost of reconstruction ranges between $10 and $50 billion.
Erdogan pledged to rebuild the affected areas within a year and to house the affected people in new homes at full state expense;
The initiation of reconstruction will require the allocation of large financial resources to it.
However, access to these resources will not be limited to those available in the state treasury, but also includes the involvement of public and private sector institutions in recovery efforts.
The national fundraising drive launched last week, which has raised over $6 billion to date, has been an illuminating illustration of the national response to this disaster.
It is important to conduct a thoughtful and comprehensive planning process to ensure that cities are properly rebuilt.
Accounting and benefit lessons
From the moment the earthquake occurred, the government faced difficult questions about its efficacy in the initial response and monitoring of poor building standards that exacerbated the casualties.
Although opposition parties' criticism of the government's response has been primarily driven by political and electoral calculations, accountability for those likely responsible for the high casualty figures will be essential in the recovery process.
So far, authorities have arrested dozens - including contractors - on suspicion of committing construction fraud or facilitating the granting of building permits without appropriate earthquake standards.
The Ministry of Justice also pledged to punish anyone found responsible, established criminal investigation units into the earthquake, and the prosecution began collecting samples from buildings to obtain evidence of the materials used in construction.
The main problem with not following the standards of safe construction in the affected areas is not the lack of strict laws that successive governments under Erdogan have already imposed to deal better with earthquakes, but rather the failure to monitor them properly.
The true test after the disaster will be the government's ability to enforce regulations and build safer structures in the future. Showing full transparency now in accountability and drawing on the harsh lessons of the Kahramanmaras earthquake will be essential to recovery.
Political polarization and elections
At a time when there was supposed to be no place for talking about politics until recovery from the disaster, the opposition parties’ rush to deal with it as an opportunity to strengthen their internal political presence and obtain a new electoral advantage imposed another challenge on the recovery efforts, which is to avoid deepening polarization. Political and societal and the impact of the disaster on the upcoming elections.
Although it is difficult to address the current polarization, President Erdogan's ability to mitigate it at this stage depends on two main things: First, avoiding engaging in a political debate with the opposition over the government's response to the earthquake, and making a fateful decision regarding the future of the electoral process.
So far, there has not been a clear change in the possible constitutional dates for holding the elections, which are May 14 or June 18, but some figures close to the ruling Justice and Development Party have raised the possibility of postponing the elections to another date in order to devote themselves to the recovery process from the disaster. .
Given that the possibility of postponing the elections will likely create a more polarized political circumstance at this stage, the best option to avoid entering a turbulent political area is to proceed with the electoral process within the constitutional dates or to achieve a national consensus to postpone it.
Finally, as much as Turkey needs to recover quickly from the earthquake disaster, reducing political and societal polarization will be essential to creating an appropriate national political environment conducive to the recovery process.