On the sixth of this month, a statement by the Egyptian Council of Ministers indicated that Council Speaker Mustafa Madbouly assigned the Information and Decision Support Center of the Council of Ministers to conduct a research project to formulate scenarios and policy alternatives necessary for the Egyptian economy to deal with the global situation during the years 2023 and 2024;
After the Prime Minister announced his expectation of the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war this year and possibly next year as well.
This was followed by the Information Center identifying 15 topics for discussion by experts and specialists, and submitting recommendations immediately after the end of each session to the Prime Minister. So far, 5 sessions have been held on prospects for economic growth, energy security challenges, food security challenges, the future of supply chains and their impact on Egypt, and trends in the agricultural sector. .
The Head of the Information Center said that these sessions aim to explore the future, draw up policies, and provide alternative solutions through the opinions and proposals of experts as the best and shortest methods to reach future perceptions and trends.
I was astonished when I read about the assignment of the Prime Minister, which means that he was working without future visions set for him by experts to deal with global changes despite the recurrence of international problems from the Corona epidemic, to the global supply chain crisis, the rise in global inflation, then the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the rise in interest in the central banks of the world.
Government confusion in the face of high prices
In July 2000, I attended a symposium at the Cabinet Information Center to create an early warning system against economic shocks. After that, a research team was assigned, supervised by the late economist Dr. Mahmoud Abdel-Fadil, to accomplish the task. A year later, at the end of July 2001, the research team attended to announce the conclusion. To an early warning system for the Egyptian financial sector in a symposium attended by then Prime Minister Dr. Atef Ebeid, and complementary workshops to the early warning system on a number of economic issues were announced within the information center.
That is why I imagined that this early warning system that the center adopted at the time was still active, in addition to that Prime Minister Sherif Ismail had formed a national committee for crisis and disaster management and risk reduction in the Council of Ministers in December 2016, which is the committee headed by the head of the Council Information Center Ministers and includes 80 bodies between ministries, governorates, and other governmental and private bodies, which held their first meeting in July 2017, and their meeting, which was attended by the Prime Minister, witnessed the launch of the National Strategy for Crisis and Disaster Management.
But I was delusional, and I should have noticed the confusion that the government is experiencing with every internal or external crisis, which means that it proceeds without setting prior scenarios for problems, including its decision to set the price of rice, which caused the disappearance of rice from the market and its high price, and its insistence on the decision for a few months until it was finally forced To cancel the decision, after the worsening problem of rice shortage and the increase in its price to unprecedented levels prompted it to announce the resort to importing it despite the sufficiency of local production for consumption and the ban on its export.
Confusion recurred with the rise in commodity prices following the devaluation of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar, although the same scenario had previously occurred with the 2016 flotation. Likewise, there was talk of resorting to the indicative price system several times without implementation, which was also with talk of offering bread outside the cards. ration and setting more than one date for the offering, which has not been achieved yet.
Fears of predicting an earthquake in Egypt
I would have imagined that even if there was a crisis management unit at the Cabinet Information Center, there would be the help of the Decision Support and Future Studies Center at the Faculty of Computing at Cairo University, which works in the field of early warning in the administrative, economic and production fields, or at the Crisis Management Unit at the Faculty of Commerce at Ain Shams University, or in the committee The National Crisis Committee of the Academy of Scientific Research or other organizations that work in the field of crisis management.
Some may say that it is better late than not, but the manner in which the dialogue sessions are conducted to reach future solutions does not reflect a scientific approach to the issue of early warning, which requires identifying problems and crises and identifying different scenarios to deal with them when they occur by specialists, and what happens is just The proposals are scattered and there is no guarantee that they will cover all aspects of the issue raised, in addition to hosting members of Parliament, the Senate, loyal parties, and officials in ministries who turned the dialogue into a defense of government policies despite their failure.
On the day of the earthquake, which occurred in the afternoon, there was a party at the Semiramis Hotel to celebrate a foreign company selling computers. The ceremony was attended by the head of the Cabinet Information Center, who did not leave until after the end of the ceremony, indicating that he did not have information about those affected by earthquakes in the governorates, despite the existence of a branch of the Information Center in each governorate.
Here my fears increase that the predictions of the Dutch earthquake researcher Frank Ho Gerbets, who predicted the occurrence of the earthquake in Turkey 3 days before it occurred and determined its location, will come true. He also predicted a major earthquake in Lebanon and perhaps Egypt, but he does not know when it will happen.
According to him, it could happen in weeks or years.
The head of the National Institute for Astronomical and Geophysical Research in Egypt responded to him by not expecting earthquakes in Egypt and affirmed the country's ability to deal with any potential crises or emergencies.
This makes me remember that in September 1990 Egypt hosted the International Conference on Disaster Management, which is held every two years in one of the countries and lasts for 4 days, which revealed the existence of an Egyptian plan to confront, prevent and manage disasters since March 1988, and its papers were presented by Egyptian, Arab and foreign researchers. On the types of crises such as floods, drought, desertification and earthquakes.
Among the papers on the topic of earthquakes is a study entitled “Seismic Hazards in Egypt,” which monitored earthquake data that occurred in Egypt from 2200 BC until 1984, and another study on lessons learned from the “Klamata” earthquake that occurred in 1986, and a study on urgent shelter housing, and even A study on child nutrition during disasters, and another on the psychological and social aspects of children during disasters.
The government's lack of a database of experts
Two years after the conference, the October 1992 earthquake occurred with a magnitude of 5.9 on the Richter scale, that is, with moderate destructive force, and yet it resulted in 439 deaths, 2036 injuries, collapse and cracking of hundreds of homes, schools and government buildings, and I did not see a practical application of the words that were said in the conference before Various government agencies, especially the Civil Defense, expressed their readiness to face disasters.
At that time, government intervention came slowly and late, while the Relief Committee of the Doctors Syndicate was beside those affected immediately after it, providing them with aid, and on the day of the earthquake that occurred in the afternoon, there was a party at the Semiramis Hotel to celebrate a foreign company selling computers, and the ceremony was attended by the head of the Cabinet Information Center, who did not leave Except after the end of the ceremony, which indicates that he did not have information about those affected by earthquakes in the governorates, despite the existence of a branch of the Information Center in each governorate.
I also remember when Dr. Atef Ebeid was assigned to form the ministry in October 1999, Dr. Mukhtar Khattab, who announced his candidacy as minister of the business sector, called me asking me to borrow an Egyptian encyclopedia that includes the names of experts and important Egyptian personalities from the Al-Ahram newspaper library to be used in selecting new ministers. I told him, astonished, especially since Dr. Atef Ebeid was Minister of Administrative Development, "Does the government not have a database of experts?!".
A few years later, there was a search for a minister of finance, and a friend related to the cabinet reshuffle file asked me to look for someone suitable for the position, and I remembered a professor of public finance in one of the coastal governorates who used to attend lectures I gave at the Trade Union in that province and share good opinions, so I nominated him and the ministry was one of the few. His share, to make sure that the government still lacks a database of Egyptian expertise and experts.
And last August, an amendment was made in the Ministry of Mustafa Madbouly, and they nominated Dr. Ahmed Issa, a professor at the Faculty of Archeology, for the position of Minister of Tourism and Antiquities, but the person responsible for contacting the candidates contacted Ahmed Issa, head of the retail banking sector at the Commercial International Bank, who assumed the position without any previous connection to the fields of tourism or Antiquities, to make sure once again that the government still lacks a database of experts!