As the rescue work in Turkey draws to a close, the devastating effects of the earthquake that struck the country on February 6 are becoming increasingly apparent.

Leaving tens of thousands of deaths and injuries, and is expected to leave its effects on various aspects of life, especially political life.

devastating earthquake

At the dawn of the sixth of this month, an earthquake measuring 7.8 degrees on the Richter scale shook southern Turkey and northern Syria, and the effects of the earthquake included 10 Turkish provinces of different degrees, as felt by people in each of Syria - whose north specifically suffered similar destruction - and Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine and Egypt.

Hours later, a second earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale hit the area, with 3,170 aftershocks;

Which exacerbated its destructive effects, and made the country face an unprecedented catastrophe that far surpassed the effects of the 1999 Izmit earthquake.

As of the moment of this writing, the Turkish President has announced that the number of deaths as a result of the earthquake has risen to 35,418, and the injured to 105,505, with 13,208 of them still being treated in hospitals, as well as the transfer of more than 150,000 to other provinces.

Erdogan said that more than 19,000 buildings have been completely demolished, while 47,211 other buildings have become unfit for housing due to the severe damage they suffered.

Therefore, it will need to be demolished urgently.

He confirmed the presence of more than 250,000 government employees in the region, including more than 35,000 experienced rescue experts, in addition to 12,235 vehicles, 76 aircraft, 121 helicopters, 26 ships and 45 drones.

Turkey announced a fourth-level alert, which includes a request for international assistance, as 100 countries responded to its call, and 84 of them sent about 11,000 rescue workers, in addition to obtaining aid from 61 countries and reaching it through 444 flights.

Erdogan had declared a state of emergency in the ten provinces affected by the earthquake, and one was added to it, and a state of mourning throughout the country for a week, and the suspension of studies at all educational levels for two weeks, and the use of student housing to house survivors, in addition to completing the academic year for universities remotely.

In view of all the above numbers and data, the impact of the earthquake on Turkey appears more clearly, which Erdogan called "the catastrophe of the century" or "the calamity of the century", and directly or indirectly affected the lives of 20 million people, and was described by the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, as " One of the greatest natural disasters of our time.

political implications

It is natural that an earthquake with such effects would have political consequences, and it is obvious that any government during which an event of this intensity occurs will bear a political responsibility, and pay a price of this or that degree, regardless of the extent of its responsibility for what happened or the way it deals with it.

However, what deepened this meaning is the approaching date of the presidential and parliamentary elections in the country, scheduled for next June, and it was expected that they would be early to May 14, and therefore the politicization of the event began very early.

The first sign of the earthquake's political consequences is the deepening of the state of polarization in the country between the ruling party and the opposition, specifically the Republican People's Party, because its president held Erdogan and the government fully responsible for what happened, refused to deal with the crisis with "a supra-political logic", and declared a boycott of the presidency and the government.

A few days later, during the funeral prayer for the former head of the Republican People's Party, Deniz Baykal;

Erdogan avoided shaking hands with Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and Ahmet Davutoglu, head of the Future Party.

The damage caused by the earthquake is no less severe than the effects of the war, and perhaps what supports such an understanding is the repeated comparison of the effects of the earthquake with the power of 500 atomic bombs, as stated by more than one official.

And if the destructive power of the earthquake is outside the scope of the discussion, then it is appropriate for the government or successive governments to assume some responsibility as well, whether it was in the pre-earthquake or after phase;

In the pre-earthquake period, the government was responsible for the construction laws and preparation for the earthquake, including qualifying the human cadre, developing plans and spreading the appropriate culture, as well as checking old buildings - especially those built before 1999 - and rebuilding them within the so-called urban development project.

If we add to that the impression that the government favored or supported the construction and real estate sector in the past years due to its importance in stimulating the economy, it would be difficult for the government to completely evade responsibility, at least in terms of the impressions generated by the event.

As for the post-earthquake phase, it is recognized that the Turkish teams affiliated with the Emergency and Natural Pest Control Administration (AFAD) would not have been able to cover all the affected areas, and therefore Ankara requested international support, but the Turkish president himself spoke of confusion and delay in the first two days before he The government takes the lead.

A number of ministers, led by Vice President Fuat Oktay, arrived in the region since the first hours of the earthquake to manage and coordinate rescue operations, in a scene completely different from the state's performance after the 1999 earthquake. However, all of this may not stand or be sufficient in the face of the large number of victims and injured.

With regard to the buildings that were completely demolished, causing a large number of deaths, the Turkish president said that 98% of them were built before 1999, and that the buildings built by the government institution "TOKİ" withstood and resisted the earthquake.

On the other hand, it is blamed on the government not to continue the civil development project at the same pace recently, and the project was concentrated in Istanbul and the Marmara region (where the largest earthquake was expected), in addition to some decisions such as registering some violating buildings in 2018. It is also useful to point out that the process Auditing and follow-up of reconstruction projects belongs to the municipalities, not the government (and the private sector in some details). Therefore, the opposition and the ruling party share this responsibility as they run a number of municipalities in the region.

Moreover, evaluating the government's performance is not complete or correct without considering long-term measures, such as shelter, compensation, reconstruction, and the prosecution of those responsible for any negligence, negligence, or corruption.

Therefore, the ability to complete construction within one year and transparency in holding officials accountable, whoever they are - and not just some contractors - will be among the basic criteria for evaluating the government's performance.

Are you postponing the elections?

Also, one of the most important features of politicization is the possibility of postponing the elections, which is a complex legal and political matter, as well as its justifications.

There are those who believe that it is not possible to conduct electoral campaigns and the polling process in the affected governorates, where there are no buildings, institutions, or government bureaucracy, in addition to the general atmosphere being unsuitable for that.

However, there are also those who believe that the voters have moved to other cities and therefore will use their right to vote, which will be an expression of their assessment of who is responsible for their crisis.

Legally, Article 78 of the constitution provides for the possibility of postponing the elections "in the event that it is not possible to organize them because of the war," and the power to do so was exclusively assigned to the Turkish Grand People's Assembly (parliament);

Which means, according to the text of the article, that the elections cannot be postponed because of the earthquake.

However, the interpretations of the article may differ from its direct text, as the justification can be linked to “the inability to organize it” and not just the “war”, and therefore it is believed that the devastation caused by the earthquake is no less severe than the effects of the war.

Perhaps what supports such an understanding is the repetition of comparing the effects of the earthquake with the strength of 500 atomic bombs, as stated by more than one official.

Then there is the possibility of amending the constitution and enacting postponement in the event of major natural disasters. In both cases, the ruling coalition will need to agree with the opposition or some of its parties.

He does not have the majority that authorizes him to amend the constitutional article.

And while the first comments came from the Republican People’s Party rejecting the postponement at all, and from the good party rejecting the long-term postponement, an agreement on a short-term postponement is still possible.

This is because, in addition to the human dimensions, there is a political dimension associated with conveying a message to citizens/electors that their tragedy is prioritized by political parties over the supposed election gains.

Therefore, it is logical that the earthquake and its aftermath will be the first and most important file on the agenda of the upcoming elections, regardless of when they are held.

Here, two narratives will compete to convince voters: the opposition will say that the government has failed, neglected, and caused the disaster;

And she has to pay the price into the ballot box.

The government will say that the earthquake is greater than the ability of any government or country to confront it, and that the opposition is trying to exploit the disaster for political gains.

In conclusion, the geological earthquake that occurred caused a political earthquake, some of its features began to take shape, as it will dye domestic political life for a very long time, as well as its effects on Turkish foreign policy, which the article did not address.

It is certain that the earthquake will have a clear impact on the results of the upcoming elections, but it is difficult to ascertain the direction of this impact, as well as its degree.

If it is logical that the heavy repercussions of the earthquake weaken the chances of Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party, who has been ruling alone for 20 years, then the final verdict of the voter will certainly be affected by the expected government measures of shelter, support, compensation and reconstruction, as well as the extent to which the various segments of the people are convinced of one of the two narratives that will compete fiercely in the coming months. .