[Explanation] At 9:17 and 18:24 on February 6th, Beijing time, two 7.8-magnitude earthquakes with a focal depth of 20 kilometers occurred in Turkey.
After the earthquake, remarks such as "Turkey-Syria earthquake may cause a magnitude 7-8 earthquake in China within three years" appeared on the Internet, which aroused the attention of many people.
The public's field of vision has once again focused on earthquake prediction, early warning, and forecasting. Are the earthquake forecasts circulated on the Internet credible?
Will the Turkey-Syria earthquake affect China?
Is the "active period" of earthquakes coming?
How did the public respond?
Recently, Wang Yunsheng, professor of the State Key Laboratory of Geological Hazard Prevention and Geological Environmental Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, and Wang Tun, director of the Chengdu Center for Earthquake Early Warning Technology Research of China Earthquake Administration and director of Chengdu High-tech Disaster Reduction Research Institute, interpreted the above issues.
[Explanation] In Wang Yunsheng's view, the reason why the Turkish earthquake attracted the attention of the world is that this earthquake is a swarm-type earthquake, and the magnitude of the earthquake is large and there are many casualties. However, this earthquake will not affect China.
The statement that "there have been more earthquakes in China in the past week" circulated on the Internet is only due to the impact of the increased public attention to earthquakes after the earthquake in Turkey.
[Concurrent] Wang Yunsheng, Professor of the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironmental Protection, Chengdu University of Technology
Everyone is paying attention to this incident. After the attention is high, everyone (feels) that it is strange where an earthquake occurs.
Above us (the earth) is an "egg shell" (earth crust), which is (composed of) several plates that are put together. What does it rely on for movement?
It moves by asthenospheric convection, which is difficult for us to see.
One is through the relative displacement between our plates, and the second is through volcanic eruptions.
In recent years, volcanoes have indeed been relatively abnormal, so there is a basic judgment that the probability of strong earthquakes and major earthquakes in the world has increased. This is from the perspective of probability.
As for (where) it happens, our country can only say that the probability has increased.
We do not have a more accurate means to limit it to a specific location.
[Explanation] Wang Tun also believes that there is no causal relationship between the Turkish earthquake and whether there will be strong earthquakes in China in the next few years.
[Concurrent] Wang Tun, director of Chengdu Center for Earthquake Early Warning Technology Research, China Earthquake Administration, and director of Chengdu High-tech Disaster Reduction Research Institute
An earthquake occurred in Turkey, and the local displacement should have been about 10 meters. However, China is thousands of kilometers away from Turkey, and the distance of 10 meters is compared to thousands of kilometers. The corresponding strain, that is to say, the change in displacement is very small. The resulting change in stress, that is, the change in force is also negligible.
[Explanation] Regarding the currently controversial prediction that after the Turkey earthquake, global earthquakes will enter an "active period", Wang Tun said that this "prediction" does not have a scientific basis.
Taking Sichuan as an example, there is currently no statistical data basis for the occurrence of major earthquakes in Sichuan.
Wang Tun said bluntly that many earthquakes are caused by the local geological structure and geological environment, which is a normal phenomenon.
[Concurrent] Wang Tun, director of Chengdu Center for Earthquake Early Warning Technology Research, China Earthquake Administration, and director of Chengdu High-tech Disaster Reduction Research Institute
I think some comments on the Internet that say that China or the world has entered a period of seismic activity have no scientific basis, and this has not been strictly counted.
(For example) Sichuan is a land of abundance, and it also has geological structures where major earthquakes occur. It is a normal phenomenon that earthquakes of these magnitudes occur in the three major earthquake zones in Sichuan because of these geological structures.
Judging from the current situation, there is no data basis for such a prediction that a major earthquake will occur again.
[Explanation] After the earthquake in Turkey, a huge amount of earthquake prediction and prediction information appeared on the Internet. Faced with this situation, Wang Tun said bluntly that all impending earthquake predictions are rumors in terms of the current technological development of earthquake prediction.
[Concurrent] Wang Tun, director of Chengdu Center for Earthquake Early Warning Technology Research, China Earthquake Administration, and director of Chengdu High-tech Disaster Reduction Research Institute
I think that anyone who says that a major earthquake will occur at a certain day, at a certain time, or at a certain place in the future can be said to be false, all rumors, and all rumors without scientific basis.
The current earthquake prediction is first of all how to do it, how to go through the process of scientific experiments, it must not be achieved, and it has not been achieved on a global scale. Accurate prediction of when, where, and magnitude (how much) the earthquake will occur, these can be called rumor.
[Explanation] Wang Yunsheng also pointed out that the prediction of impending earthquakes is a worldwide problem, and any inference that "an earthquake of a certain level will occur at a certain time and place" is "unreliable" from a scientific point of view.
At present, the country's earthquake resistance level has been greatly improved compared with the past. In the face of the so-called "prediction information", the public only needs to calm down.
[Concurrent] Wang Yunsheng, Professor of the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironmental Protection, Chengdu University of Technology
For so many years in our country, especially since the Wenchuan Earthquake, through extensive publicity, our public's awareness of earthquake prevention is stronger than before.
(At the same time) the requirements for earthquake protection are becoming more and more mandatory. After strong earthquakes, most of our cities will be affected by high intensity. At this time, we can guarantee that major earthquakes will not collapse, moderate earthquakes can be repaired, and minor earthquakes will not be damaged. .
(Now) as long as we have (cleared) some active faults, or combined with our current planning, we will try our best to take the earthquake rupture zone under the condition that we have done it. One is called avoidance range. Although not all of them meet this requirement, this one is already developing in this direction and has begun to take action.
Yang Yudi reports from Chengdu, Sichuan
Editor in charge: [Ji Xiang]