What happens in an atomic war? "Many have heard of nuclear winter, but very few know what it is"

In the fall of 1983, soon to be 40 years ago, more than

stumbled upon the cover of

magazine , a Sunday companion to numerous newspapers, with the chilling headline: "Could Nuclear War Be the End?" of the world? In a nuclear 'swap,' over a billion people would die instantly. But

..."

The report was signed by the famous astronomer, writer and television presenter

he sagan

, who was also one of the authors, at the end of that same year, of

a report

published in the prestigious magazine

.

Both works, first the informative one and shortly after the academic one, presented the concept of

: to the direct effects of an atomic conflict, we must add

, which could bring about the end of civilization as we know it.

A new survey, in which they have participated

during the month of January, he has just revealed that today there is very little knowledge among the population about what nuclear winter is and what its long-term consequences could be.

Although recent studies have confirmed and deepened the warning of Sagan and his colleagues, and despite the fact that

the invasion of Ukraine

has brought the nuclear debate back to the fore, a large majority

that would unleash a nuclear conflict.

"Although many people have heard of nuclear winter, very few understand what it means. If there were a nuclear exchange in which many cities burned down, the firestorms would throw up so much debris that

, which would cause the fall of the crops and would cause a famine that

", Explain

, author of the survey and senior research associate at the Center for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), attached to the

University of Cambridge

.

"An exchange that would involve the majority of the nuclear arsenal deployed in the world could threaten to make the human species extinct," adds this expert.

"The risk is such that it is best to understand these physical processes and the situations they could cause, and

.

Ultimately, we need to find ways to better manage international relations."

Many of the people who do say they know what nuclear winter is do so precisely because they remember or have heard about the debates of the 1980s, when the US and the Soviet Union agreed to important disarmament agreements, very possibly influenced by the Sagan's scientific and informative work.

"Ideas about nuclear winter

, as if it were something for history, instead of a contemporary and terrible risk," says Ingram.

Asked if they thought they knew a lot about nuclear winter and where they had heard about it, the people surveyed responded as follows: a

in the UK and a

in the USA they had been informed through

;

a

in the UK and a

in the US they did it through

;

and the highest percentages, a

and a

in the US, they knew him because they remembered or had later heard the discussions of

.

The survey also reveals that a large majority would be

with more nuclear force.

Only one in five respondents would support retaliation on an atomic scale, and the percentage drops even further when volunteers are briefly shown what nuclear winter is all about.

"We have discovered that there are a significant number of people whose views on nuclear retaliation were affected

Ingram says.

"What we can say is that, while opinion polls are ambiguous on nuclear deterrence [the possession of atomic weapons so that the enemy does not dare to attack], there is

[the Ukrainian war].

There could be several reasons for this: some might support the threat but not the use, while others would not use it by a distant country outside of our Alliance, and some may think there are safer and more effective ways," Ingram muses. " In fact, there was greater support for military intervention, for much more severe sanctions or for the shipment of more military equipment." That is, to continue supporting Ukraine through conventional channels.

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In summary, there is a general refusal to enter into a nuclear war, even if Russia started it, but there is also a significant lack of knowledge about the long-term effects that the conflict could have on the atmosphere of the entire planet: "There is an understanding of the consequences of a nuclear use, given the impact.

", clarifies the author of the survey.

The reason for this apparent contradiction is that "it's hard to get an idea" of what a nuclear winter would mean.

"

", Ingram points out. "After all, most people think there is little they can do to change the situation.

But these risks impact everyone,

.

A better awareness of these impacts would strengthen those inside and outside governments who are working hard to change this situation, and to build a stronger global governance structure that does not depend on the threat of annihilation."

The Cambridge expert also recalls that "Spain is one of the 16 nations of the

Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament

, an important effort to strengthen disarmament diplomacy". And he concludes: "We need

using this structure.

He

Center for the Study of Existential Risk

currently has dozens of researchers dedicated to analyzing present and future threats.

Among its founders is the astronomer Lord

, one of the scientists and disseminators

most prestigious

of the present, in addition to

declared admirer of the legacy of Carl Sagan

.

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