National Climate Center: Extreme heat events will become more frequent in the future

　　Original title: The characteristics of warm and dry last year were obvious, and the drought and flood disasters were prominent-what is the climate situation in my country this year

　　"The National Climate Center's preliminary research and judgment on the country's overall climate situation this year believes that the overall climate of the country this year is deviated, and extreme weather and climate events still show a trend of frequent and strong occurrence." At the press conference of the China Meteorological Administration held recently, the National Climate Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the center, said that this year, southern China should focus on preventing persistent high-temperature weather in summer to ensure energy supply for peak summer; coastal areas should focus on strengthening typhoon defense; Waterlogging and other secondary disasters; the western region should increase the prevention of geological disasters caused by heavy rainfall and other risks.

　　According to reports, my country's climate system has become more unstable due to the impact of climate change.

In recent years, extreme weather and climate events have shown the characteristics of high frequency of occurrence, wide range of influence, and strong hazards, and disaster prevention and mitigation are facing more challenges.

The "2022 China Climate Bulletin" shows that in 2022, my country's climate conditions will generally deviate, with obvious warm and dry climate characteristics and prominent drought and flood disasters.

Specifically, the regional and periodic droughts are obvious, and the summer and autumn droughts in the south are severely affected; the rainstorms are frequent, and the rainstorms in South China and Northeast my country are severe, and floods occur in the Pearl River Basin and Songliao Basin; The strongest high temperature process has occurred since 1961, and the "autumn tiger" weather in the south is obvious; the cold wave process is obviously more, in February, there are continuous low temperature, rain, snow and little sunshine in the south, and the strong cold wave from the end of November to the beginning of December leads to severe cooling in many places; strong convective weather The process is relatively small, but the local disaster is serious.

　　The data shows that in 2022, the national average temperature will be 10.51°C, which is 0.62°C higher than normal. Except for the slightly lower temperature in winter, the temperature in spring, summer and autumn will be the highest in the same period in history; least ever.

The process of the rainy season in the flood season is generally earlier than that of normal years, but the intensity of rainfall varies greatly.

Among the six major regions, the precipitation in Northeast China, South China, and North China is relatively high, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Southwest China, and Northwest China have relatively low precipitation; among the seven major river basins, except for the Yangtze River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin, the precipitation in other basins is average. too much.

　　"According to climate change forecasts, climate change in my country will continue to exist in the future." Jia Xiaolong said that in the future, the average temperature in different regions of my country will still show an increasing trend; The higher the value, the faster the growth rate, the stronger the intensity, and the greater the risk.

For example, around 2035, extreme high temperature events similar to those in the summer of 2013 in the central and eastern regions of my country may become biennial events. By the end of this century, the risk of high temperature events will increase to dozens of times the current level.

　　According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, in the future, the increase in extreme precipitation in my country will also be greater than the average precipitation, and the variability will increase, and the precipitation will become more extreme.

In the future, the period of average concentrated rainfall in my country will change from the current once in 50 years to once in 20 years; extreme drought events will change from the current once in 50 years to once in 32 years.

In addition, the probability and risk of compound extreme events will continue to increase.

In general, affected by climate change, low-probability high-impact events will be more likely to occur, thus increasing the challenge of preventing extreme climate risks.

　　Facing the severe situation of increasing global warming and frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events, how should the public respond?

Relevant experts said that human activities, especially the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, are the main cause of global warming, and about 2/3 of global emissions are related to household emissions, so optimizing the consumption patterns of the whole society can largely Reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It is necessary to encourage individuals to switch to green consumption patterns in terms of food, clothing, housing, transportation, etc., and reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible.

　　Experts said that from the government level, the Chinese government has been strengthening disaster prevention and mitigation, emergency management and other aspects of capacity building to cope with climate change.

From the perspective of the public, it is necessary to improve their own awareness of disaster prevention and reduction and response to climate change, and actively learn relevant knowledge and disaster prevention and reduction skills.

Special attention should be paid to improving the comprehensiveness of attention to meteorological disasters, and strengthening the awareness of disaster and risk prevention in daily work and life.

(Economic Daily reporter Guo Jingyuan)