The government has decided to revise the damage assumptions of the Nankai Trough megaquake, with the death toll surpassing 320,000 in the worst case.

With the aim of reflecting the latest research results and disaster prevention measures, we are planning to review the basic plan that incorporates countermeasures by the spring of next year.

Regarding the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, the national government announced its damage estimate 11 years ago in 2012. If the largest class earthquake occurs, a wide area of ​​eastern and western Japan will be hit by violent shaking and a huge tsunami. 323,000 people died and 2.5 million buildings were completely destroyed.

This time, we decided to review this damage assumption, and on the 3rd, we held the first meeting of a study group made up of experts in seismology and other fields, and began discussions toward a review.

It is said that the aim of the revision of the assumption is to reflect the latest research results and disaster prevention measures so far, more than 10 years after the announcement.

In addition, the government has set "disaster mitigation targets" in the national basic plan, such as reducing the number of fatalities to 80% and the number of completely destroyed buildings to about half by the next fiscal year, 2023, and plans to review the plan by next spring. .

Tadashi Hirata, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and chairman of the study group, said, "Earthquakes, which are natural phenomena, won't change much, but we need to reconsider what kind of damage will occur now. Disaster prevention measures that local governments and the private sector have been promoting. It is important to check how much the effect of is increasing and to further correct the inadequate areas."