Chairman Omi interview New Corona 8th wave What is the situation? From now on?

It has been three years since a person infected with the new coronavirus was confirmed in Japan.

In the past three years, Japan has experienced a total of eight waves of the spread of infection, and the current eighth wave is a severe infection situation with the highest number of deaths reported every day.

On the other hand, there is an opinion that the position of the new corona under the Infectious Diseases Law should be the same as "5 types" such as seasonal influenza.

How should we look at the current 8th wave?

How should we deal with this virus going forward?

News Watch 9 newscaster Masayoshi Tanaka asked Shigeru Omi, chairman of the Government Subcommittee.

Chairman Omi spoke for 90 minutes.

(This interview was conducted on the evening of January 13)

What is the status of the 8th wave?

Why the highest number of deaths?

Q.For the first time in 3 years, there are no movement restrictions during the year-end and New Year holidays, and the number of infections is increasing.

The number of deaths continues to be at a record high. How do you see the current situation?

A. The number of infected people has not exceeded the 7th wave last summer, but the number of deaths has exceeded the 7th wave.

It seems that the background is that the method of reporting infected people has changed.

The reported number of infected people remains a fraction of the actual number of infected people, and this trend is even stronger here.

Data clearly show that most of the people who die are those in their 60s and older who have underlying diseases.

Pneumonia is the trigger, and many people die due to a decline in their ability to swallow (to swallow food, etc.).

Japan is one of the oldest societies in the world, and this is one of the factors contributing to the increase in deaths.

Also, in the UK, for example, about 80% of the people have already been infected when looking at blood donation data.

I don't know exactly in Japan, but about a third of people in the UK have experienced infection.

The infection is spreading because the number of people who are naturally infected is less than in other countries.

The Omicron strain has significantly strengthened the infectivity, and the speed of the spread of infection is accelerating.

Infections at nursing homes and medical institutions where many elderly people live are increasing.

I think that these factors overlap, and the current situation is that elderly and weak people are dying.

Q.Will the number of deaths continue to increase?

A. It is difficult to predict when the peak will come, but I think the trend of increasing deaths will continue for some time.

I think it's better to think that the burden on medical care will continue for a while.

Until now, Japan has aimed to control infections to some extent and reduce the number of deaths as much as possible.

There is a greater need than ever for a system to protect the medical care and care of the elderly.

The general public has learned something from the past three years of measures, and I hope that they will continue to take measures to prevent infection as much as possible.

Balancing the provision of necessary medical care and the socioeconomic

Q. There is also the question of whether it is okay to ease restrictions in preparation for "with corona".

Should the direction be changed?

A.I think that what is required now is to keep the society and economy running while steadily providing necessary medical care.

I think this balance is important.

If we were to focus on infection control now, it would damage society, the economy, and education.

Under such circumstances, reducing the flow of people by 80% will not gain the understanding and sympathy of society.

It is necessary for everyone to fully understand the characteristics of this disease, and then think about what countermeasures are appropriate.

Many of the people who die are elderly, and some die in nursing homes.

However, doctors and other medical professionals are not always there.

It is important for local governments and surrounding medical institutions to support facilities for the elderly and protect the elderly in the community.

It is also important for the health and medical staff and the welfare staff of local governments to work together, and I believe that this kind of response is required more than ever.

Some local governments have decided which medical institution will be in charge of this elderly facility.

I hope that this kind of movement will spread to local governments nationwide.

Q. How should I think about measures for the elderly?

A. The risk of infection continues to a certain extent, and it is not surprising that infection can occur anywhere, such as aerosol infection.

Although vaccines cannot eliminate the possibility of infection, we know that they are highly effective in preventing aggravation.

I think there are people who haven't shot yet, but I'd like you to get vaccinated.

In addition, I would like people who come into contact with the elderly, such as facility staff, to take advantage of vaccinations and tests to protect themselves.

What are the characteristics of the current mutant virus?

Q. What are the characteristics of the new coronavirus that is spreading now?

A. There are several features at the moment.

<Declining fatality rate>

It is true that the fatality rate and the seriousness rate have definitely decreased.

There is no disagreement among experts, and this is a common understanding, and supporting data are emerging.

<The infectivity is extremely strong>

If that is the case, is it okay to call it a normal cold?

It's infectiousness.

The virus is naturally contagious and is stronger than the flu.

And here we are, even stronger.

The fatality rate may be low, but the scale of the number of people infected is very large.

<Large number of deaths>

The third feature is the large number of people who die.

For example, the number of people who died from COVID-19 last year in 2022 is about 10 times more than the number of people who died during the year when seasonal flu was at its peak.

In addition, * excess deaths are higher in years when corona is prevalent than when seasonal influenza is prevalent.

(*Excess deaths: the actual number of deaths exceeds the number of deaths statistically estimated)

<Difficult to predict>

Another important point is that seasonal influenza is literally "seasonal", and in winter it becomes It has many features.

However, the new corona has repeated waves of infection spread for the past three years, and there is no seasonality.

<The ever-changing new coronavirus>

Moreover, the nature of the virus itself continues to change.

The flu does change, but it's a gradual change that's not too surprising.

Vaccines can be predicted to some extent, such as by making vaccines based on strains that were popular in the previous year.

The reality is that it is difficult to predict how the new corona will spread.

Medicines aren't always accessible anywhere, and given these factors, it's not possible to say that it's the same as the common cold or seasonal flu right now, and it will take some time to get to that point. is our opinion.

Difficult to converge Effects on the circulatory system and sequelae

Q. Are you saying that the threat level has not decreased?

A.It has been three years since the outbreak of the new coronavirus, and I believe that everyone, myself included, wants to return to their previous lifestyles and socio-economic conditions.

On the other hand, this disease is a once-in-a-century infectious disease.

In 2003, a disease called severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread, and at that time it was said to be the "first public health crisis of the 21st century."

It was confirmed in China and other countries, spread quickly and was a very serious threat.

Even with such a disease, it was reduced to zero in just half a year and was successfully suppressed.

But Corona is still trending after 3 years.

Moreover, even in countries like the UK, where 80% of people are estimated to have already been infected, the infection has not yet subsided.

One of the toughest features of this virus is that the effects of natural infection and vaccine-acquired immunity diminish over time.

And there are also mutant strains that have the characteristics of going through immunity.

It is a good feature that young people are extremely unlikely to become severely ill, but some people are suffering from aftereffects after being infected.

Directly causing severe pneumonia has become rare recently, but there is also evidence that it affects the circulatory system.

Unfortunately, we need to get this fact right.

We must face this reality.

It will not become a "normal cold" in a few months

Q. How long do you think the trend will last?

A. I would like to say that I can feel relieved in a month or two, but considering the characteristics of this disease, I don't think it will be like a common cold in the next few months in the true sense of the word.

Mutants of concern are

Q. I'm also worried about mutant strains, but which mutant strains are the most concerned about among experts now?

A. Looking at the world today, the most popular mutant strains differ from country to country.

In Japan, "BA.5" was the mainstream a while ago, but now it is gradually being replaced by "BQ.1".

Among them, "XBB.1.5", which is prevalent in the United States, is beginning to be detected in Japan as well.

In addition to the same property as "BQ.1" that evades immunity, this mutant strain is said to have the characteristics of being more likely to adhere to human cells and become more susceptible to infection.

Genetic analysis of the virus is also underway in Japan to see how it spreads.

Q. With the outbreak of infections in China, many people will be moving to celebrate the Lunar New Year in late January.

What is the focus of experts?

A. First of all, I don't think that the arrival of Chinese people in Japan will lead to the same infection situation in China as it is now.

The proportion of people who are naturally infected is also higher than in China, and many people are vaccinated.

However, I think there is a possibility that it will affect the spread of infection.

It's also important, but the possibility that new mutation stocks will be born will be higher in proportion to the frequency of infection.

If this scale of infection continues in China, it is likely that new mutations will emerge, so we need to keep an eye on it.

International community Needs to take measures based on certain promises

Q. Chairman Omi, I believe that you were involved in the response to SARS at the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Chinese government.

As someone who has seen the global pandemic situation, is there anything you can say to China today?

A.Although the Chinese government has acknowledged this, China was slow to share information with the international community when responding to SARS in 2003.

Two or three months after the epidemic began, he admitted it, and the number of infections dropped sharply after that.

Just like earthquakes and tsunamis, new infectious diseases will come again.

Reflecting on SARS, the international community over the next several years established rules on how the international community and the WHO should share information when similar incidents occurred.

Over the years, the parties have worked hard to make international commitments.

Despite this, information sharing has been delayed even in the current situation, and the situation has turned out to be a little different from what the international community has promised so far.

The virus can go anywhere in the world without a passport.

I think it is important for the international community to take measures based on certain promises.

How to see Japan's three-year measures

Q. How do you feel about Japan's countermeasures so far?

A. Because we saw early on that the infection spreads from asymptomatic infected people, we believe that Japan cannot and should not aim for "zero corona", and the goal is to reduce the number of people who die as much as possible. Corona measures have been taken.

So far, Japan has been able to keep the cumulative number of deaths per capita lower than in other countries.

I think there are three reasons for that.

One is that many citizens have responded to requests for countermeasures from the national and local governments and cooperated with infection control.

The second point is that the public health center and medical personnel worked hard in the stressful situation that continues to this day, despite various restrictions.

And thirdly, instead of recklessly continuing with the policy once decided, we have made fine adjustments to the measures as needed.

There may have been some success in doing so.

On the other hand, the damage to society and the economy continues, and in the irreplaceable period of youth, face-to-face classes are not possible, club activities are restricted, school trips are not possible, and social, economic, and educational aspects are all affected. It is also true that a large burden was placed on the place at the same time.

In fact, various lessons were learned from the response to the new strain of influenza that occurred in 2009, and all the issues that are currently in question, such as the strengthening of public health centers, the expansion of testing systems, and the ideal form of risk communication, were discussed and compiled into a proposal. was

The long-awaited summary has not been made use of in this corona response.

This time, the whole Japanese society is having such a hard time.

Even if the infection subsides, I think that it is necessary to prepare for the next pandemic by making use of the lessons learned from this time, rather than saying, "If it goes down your throat, you will forget the heat."

How will we face Corona in the future?

Q.The spread of COVID-19 has entered its fourth year.

What do you think about the direction in which Japanese society is headed?

A.In the UK, even if 80% of the people are infected, the epidemic will not stop, and it is not said that the epidemic will end with herd immunity if a certain percentage of the people are infected.

The most conceivable is that as we repeat the process of vaccination and natural infection, the virus will change into a normal virus like the seasonal flu.

However, the nature of viruses can change rapidly.

Q. What should we keep in mind?

A. So far, many people have learned what kind of people are more likely to become seriously ill and in what situations they are more likely to be infected.

It is important that each of us devise what we have learned so far, and that everyone devise new health habits.

However, the role of the government will be lost if it is done on the self-responsibility of citizens alone.

It is necessary to create an environment in which citizens can voluntarily take measures based on their experiences, and this is an area where the government should work hard.

For example, if it is possible to provide an antigen test kit at a low price, or if there is a high possibility that the person is infected, create an environment in which they can take time off from work without feeling too much of a debt to the company. It is also necessary to go

I think it is important for the government to support the voluntary efforts of citizens in order to keep the medical system from becoming overwhelmed while keeping the economy moving.

For example, measures that are not necessarily necessary are also taken, such as wiping the desk with alcohol every time there is a change of people in the cafeteria.

There are measures that have been taken so far but do not necessarily need to be taken, and on the other hand, there are measures that need to be continued.

As we work to restore society to its original state, I think we should discuss it while borrowing the wisdom of many people.

However, the judgment criteria are difficult and there are many parts where the scientific basis is not clear.

I believe that we need to gather a lot of knowledge, discuss it, and summarize it.

In the future, depending on the situation, masks will be required Vaccines

Q.Do I still have to wear a mask?

A. It has already been said that masks do not have to be worn all the time when outside.

However, it is known that this virus is often transmitted by micro-flies and aerosols drifting in the air, and that masks are quite important in terms of countermeasures.

Any gathering of people in a poorly ventilated area undoubtedly increases the risk.

In the "three Cs" and poor ventilation, I think masks are necessary for the time being.

You don't have to wear a mask all day long in private.

Q. Will you continue to vaccinate in the future?

A. I think it depends on the infection situation and the virus situation.

I think that the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and experts will continue to discuss whether it is necessary to hit the sixth and seventh times.

Q.ワクチンの効果や安全性について、疑問視する声も続いています。

A.ワクチンを接種する判断は、リスクとベネフィット（利益）の比較です。

100％安全と言うことはないし、100％効果があるわけでもない。

トータルで見て判断すると言うことです。

いまのワクチンは、重症化する人を減らすという目標に対しては有効だと思います。

いろんな考えがあることは承知していますが、重症化を予防できること、亡くなることを予防できることが目的です。

重症化予防、死亡に至るのを防ぐ効果を支持するデータはかなり出てきています。

SNSなどでいろいろな意見があります。

日本のような自由な社会では、そういういろいろな意見があると思いますが、高齢者がワクチンを打った方が良いという考えは正しいと思う。

基礎疾患のある人たちはなるべく打ってもらいたいと思います。

「2類か5類」かの前に 納得感・共感ある議論を

Q.感染症法上の位置づけを5類に、という見直し議論が進んでいます。どう見ておられますか。

A.先日、厚生労働省の専門家会合で、専門家の有志が感染症法上の位置づけについての見解を出しました。

私たちが申し上げたことは、これから一番重要なことは「経済や社会を動かす」一方で、「医療提供体制を維持すること」、その2つの目的を同時に実現することが必要だということです。

「2類か5類か」の議論をする前に、この2つの目的を実現するためにどれが一番良い方法か、いまのコロナの特徴を踏まえた対策が必要だと思います。

具体的にどういったことが必要なのか、見解の中でまとめています。

仮に「5類」にした場合にどういうインパクトがあるのか。

やることの意義と予期せぬ影響が出てくる可能性など、こうしたことを詳しく考察する必要があります。

For example, if we change to Category 5 now, there is a possibility that the burden of individual medical expenses will increase, and we will have to think about how to deal with this.

How do you judge these things?

Ultimately, politicians will make the decision, but I think we should proceed step-by-step while making preparations after considering the positives and negatives of category 5.

Now, the way of looking at this infectious disease is becoming different between the general public and medical professionals.

Medical workers see infected people every day and see people who die.

However, in general society, especially for people in the prime of their lives, there are few opportunities to come into contact with the fact that a person infected with the coronavirus has died nearby.

The general public and medical professionals see the situation differently.

both are true.

The situation you see changes depending on where you look at it.

Rather than simply drawing conclusions about what citizens think and what medical professionals think, we need deep discussions.

Isn't the process more important than "when to do it?"

I think that each party is required to have a discussion with a sense of convincing and empathy that they can understand this.