The year 2022 has passed away with all its international conflicts, wars and tragedies, and we have entered a new year, but it carries with it the same files that it started with last year, without an indication of the possibility of resolving it or getting rid of its costs and burdens.
This is an account of what happened over the past 12 months, indicating important points at the level of the global system and international relations, most notably:
First: the demise of the unipolar system as we have known it over the past three decades
Especially since the collapse of the Soviet Union, in which the United States tried to lead the world unilaterally without the participation of other international powers, which apparently were not satisfied with this American exclusivity.
Perhaps one of the reasons that explain the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in late February, is related to this issue, and Putin's attempt to break American hegemony in the international arena, as was evident in his statements in which he accused America and the West of igniting the war in Ukraine by expanding the territory of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). ) and his arrival to the borders of his country, which prompted him to launch a "special military operation" on Kyiv, as he put it.
Second: China's rise as an important player in the international arena
Not only economically, commercially and technologically, as was the case during the last two decades, but also as an important strategic and military player, especially in the East Asian region and the Indian and Pacific oceans.
This is what made the United States consider Beijing a strategic threat to it and its interests in that region in the National Security Strategy that was issued last October.
Contrary to what some believed, the rise of China will not be a peaceful rise, but rather an ascendance tinged with tension, competition and conflict.
And perhaps war with the United States, which is striving to disrupt this rise through its heavy military presence in the South China Sea and its strategic alliances with Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and India.
Third: the transformation of global energy resources
Such as oil and gas to a major player in the conflict interactions of the international system, and the increasing role of not only its producers but also its consumers.
We have seen how the Russian war on Ukraine ignited the struggle over resources and their management, production and consumption between East and West.
For the first time, we are witnessing the emergence of the so-called "consumer cartel", in order to balance producer cartels, whether in the Organization of Petroleum Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) or OPEC Plus, which includes Russia and other non-OPEC countries.
For example, the European countries and the Group of Seven countries, which are among the largest energy consuming countries, agreed to set a ceiling for Russian oil and gas prices, for the first time in the history of these countries.
Fourth: Suffering from food security crises
The suffering resulting from the food security crises is no longer confined to the poor countries of the south. It has also been joined by the rich countries of the north, which have suffered from the repercussions of the food problem resulting from the Russian war on Ukraine and the disruption of supply and distribution chains for weeks, before the United Nations intervened and solved the problem through Turkish mediation.
We saw the repercussions of this on all countries in the form of an unprecedented rise in the prices of basic commodities such as wheat and edible oils, most of which come from Russia and Ukraine.
Fifth: Suffering from many economic crises during the past year
This is as a result of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the global economy almost emerged from the repercussions of the Corona crisis, which imposed a complete closure on major economies, especially the Chinese economy, until that Russian war came to ignite inflation crises, high prices, and raise the cost of living in Western countries in a way that had not happened in 40 years. the least.
This resulted in many economic and social disturbances, such as protests, sit-ins, and strikes in all vital sectors.
Rather, the governments of European countries were overthrown, as happened in Britain and Italy, and we witnessed an unprecedented rise of the extreme right in more than one European country.
As we enter the new year, it is expected that these crises will become more complicated and worse, especially in light of the lack of a clear horizon for ending the Russian war on Ukraine.
Perhaps the most important worrying indicators of the possibility of many crises in the new year are the following:
Increasing regional and international conflicts, and increasing the possibility of new wars, whether in the East Asian region (between China and Taiwan, or between the two Koreas, or between Japan and China, etc.) as well as in the Central European region (especially in Eastern Europe and the Balkans) or in the Middle East (especially between Iran and its allies, Israel and its allies) or in Africa or in Central and Latin America.
Rather, these regional wars may ignite a new world war, whether between China and the United States, between the latter and Russia, or between the latter and other European countries, with an increase in social and political unrest as a result of economic crises.
The matter will not stop at the borders of the Middle East, which is expected to witness more political instability and perhaps the collapse of authoritarian regimes, but also in Europe, which may witness a new shift towards right-wing populist currents.
We may witness the fall of democratically established regimes in the clutches of the extreme right, whether through elections or coups, with the possibility of a global economic collapse and not just stagnation or a slowdown in growth, especially in light of the state of interdependence between global economies, and their unprecedented connection to each other as a result of globalization. Commercial and economic.
Developing and poor countries will pay the highest price for this collapse, which may occur as a result of political conflict and strategic competition between the major powers.
There is a high possibility of resource wars igniting in an unprecedented manner, especially in light of two things: the first is the increased demand for these resources (especially energy resources such as oil and gas), and the second is the use of these resources as a strategic weapon in the international conflict.
There is also a possibility of water conflicts and wars igniting, especially in light of the severe climatic changes that the world is witnessing steadily, such as drought, desertification, and others.
Finally, major shifts are expected to occur in the map of regional and international alliances, especially in the Asia and Middle East regions, which may result in an increase in tensions and conflicts in a way that has not happened since World War II, in light of the complete inability of the United Nations and international and regional organizations to resolve these conflicts.