The inability of the House of Representatives of the US Congress to elect its speaker for the first time in 100 years, despite the Republican majority, could be considered a kind of political anecdote, if this incident did not reveal many details of modern American politics that also affect US policy towards Russia.
Contrary to tradition, the Democratic congressmen voted unitedly, while their Republican counterparts showed an unprecedented multi-vector approach, giving the seemingly “single candidate” fewer votes than the Democratic minority candidate Hakim Jeffreys received.
And Republican Kevin McCarthy not only won fewer votes, but also lost them with each new round of voting.
And this reflects the party alignment of forces: the Republicans are split, politically divided, the party is being destroyed by the situation around Donald Trump.
Recall that Kevin McCarthy is considered "Trump's man".
Whereas the Democratic Party, despite colossal internal ideological differences, was able to achieve a high degree of organizational consolidation.
And this consolidation on the vote in the House of Representatives shows that the Democratic Party has overcome the obvious internal crisis of the summer - early autumn of 2022.
Indeed, preventing the seemingly inevitable victory of the Republican candidate in the 2024 presidential election until recently is worth postponing the showdown between the "moderately socialist", "radical" and "aristocratic" wings of the party to 2025.
Republicans, on the other hand, will be forced to resolve overdue and overripe contradictions within the party here and now, without waiting for its split, which is clearly the result of Donald Trump's ambitions.
Here it will become clear not only which part of the American elite has more organizational resources, but also who has the stronger political will, who needs more victory in 2023.
Because the Democratic Party of the United States is now faced with a curious prospect, which was not there a couple of months ago: the Democratic candidate can get a real chance of winning in 2024.
But under three conditions requiring a change in the entire content of its policy.
• This candidate's last name should not be Biden or Harris, which in itself presents some difficulty.
But, in addition, this means the need to quickly search for new figures capable of playing the role of an integrator, and not a divider of American society, which is the current democratic elite, which has ruined relations with almost everyone both inside the United States and in the world.
• Hence the second nuance: in the future, the American administration will require greater responsibility both within the country and on the world stage.
The concept of “even a flood after us” that has dominated for the past six months, the symbol of which would be the re-nomination of the Biden-Harris couple, in the context of a dawning victory in 2024, can no longer be relevant.
• Democrats need an economic program that suits the general public and lobbyists, not just the military-industrial complex and speculators in the energy market.
This, I think, will be the most difficult.
The current American administration, in principle, did not prepare for anything like this either politically or intellectually, and, despite all the peppy reports, the situation in the economy remains more than difficult.
Oddly enough, the key to making the Democratic Party a real claim to success in the November 2024 presidential election is to maintain the anti-Russian consensus.
This is possible, but on condition that it is creatively complemented by an anti-Chinese escalation (and signs of this are already visible: Secretary of State Anthony Blinken did not make his last anti-Chinese demarches by himself) and a tougher policy towards Iran.
This will inevitably require a major reallocation of resources.
Do not flatter yourself: the logic of the internal political struggle will push the United States to continue the game of “raising the stakes” of Russia, but not as recklessly as it was in the last six months, probably abandoning the strategy of “filling Russia with the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers and NATO, including including American, weapons.
Washington will simply be forced to rely on more subtle methods of destabilizing the situation in Russia.
And it can be significantly more dangerous.
But there is one more nuance: the gap between American party politics and the situation on the ground, by all accounts, is growing.
The “Other America” will gradually start to emerge from smoky bars on the outskirts of cities and from social networks.
And the American elite, primarily the aristocracy of the East Coast, which, in essence, is represented by both parties, must try very hard so that new structures do not begin to penetrate into this gap, relying not on party games and elections, which have long turned into profanation, but on " direct action” and what is called “grass roots politics” in the USA, politics at the “grass roots” level.
What the virtualized American political system has long lost the habit of.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.