Chinanews.com, Shanghai, December 31 (Reporter Chen Jing) Chen Saijuan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said on the 31st that among people who have recently experienced symptoms of new coronavirus infection, severe illness is mainly concentrated in the elderly with underlying diseases; New Year's Day and Spring Festival are coming , rural areas with relatively weak medical resources, all need to focus on.
Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ruijin Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Chen Saijuan's team from National Major Infrastructure for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), and Fan Xiaohong's team from Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center jointly tackled key problems and published a research paper "Preliminary Analysis of my country's 2022 Autumn and Winter" in Frontiers of Medicine Omicron subtype diversity and epidemiological characteristics in COVID-19.
The researchers preliminarily judged that the number of people infected with this round of Omicron epidemic will come to an end around New Year's Day in 2023 in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Chongqing and other cities.
Based on the mathematical simulation analysis of the data of the main urban area and suburbs of Chongqing, the research team believes that the peak of the epidemic has been delayed in the suburbs, and the peak of infection will be significantly enhanced during the Spring Festival travel season due to the accelerated spread of the epidemic.
For Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and other provinces, it is estimated that the peak of infection in rural areas and small and medium-sized urban areas will appear in the middle and late January of 2023.
Omicron (English name Omicron; Pango naming system number: B.1.1.159) is currently designated by the World Health Organization as a mutant strain of the new coronavirus that deserves close attention.
Compared with the early mutant strains of the new coronavirus (such as Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta), Omicron's ability to infect and immune escape is significantly enhanced, but its ability to invade the lungs and cause severe toxicity is significantly weakened.
With the changes in the transmission route of the virus brought about by the evolution of the epidemic, multiple subtypes of Omicron are spreading in the country at the same time.
Chen Saijuan's team and Fan Xiaohong's team jointly tackled key problems to assess the transmission mode of the Omicron strain in the country after the adjustment of epidemic prevention measures, the possible proportion of severe patients among symptomatic infections, and the trend of this wave of epidemics in large cities and rural areas in central and western China.
The researchers analyzed the Omicron subtypes that are currently prevalent in the country, the proportion of critically ill patients among the infected and hospitalized patients, and used mathematical modeling to simulate and predict the trend of the epidemic.
Academician Chen Saijuan said: "We conducted a random sampling study of infected persons in Shanghai this autumn and winter, conducted genome sequencing and molecular epidemiological analysis of the new coronavirus; continued to monitor the types of new coronaviruses circulating in China, and evaluated the infectivity of each mutant strain at the same time. and pathogenicity to judge the development of the epidemic.”
By sequencing the genomes of hundreds of samples randomly selected from patients admitted to the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center during the autumn and winter of 2022, the research team obtained 369 high-quality full-genome sequences of the new coronavirus.
The genomes of these viruses contain a total of 30 Aomecron subtype strains, of which 355 (95.95%) genome sequences are concentrated in 5 Aomecron sublines, and the main strains include those that have been reported to be prevalent in Beijing and Guangzhou. BF.7 and BA.5.2 and BQ.1 and XBB recently appeared in Europe and America.
It is understood that, combined with the travel history and infection contact history of the infected person, the researchers proved that those with a history of contact with the epidemic in Beijing or Guangzhou mainly carried the BF.7 and BA.5.2 substrains respectively; the infected persons who entered Shanghai from overseas mainly carried BQ.1 and XBB; in addition to BA.5.2 among the local infected persons in Shanghai, there are several Omicron sub-strains with a relatively high proportion.
No new coronavirus variants have been identified in these results.
The study pointed out that medical resources in rural areas and small and medium-sized cities and towns in China are relatively scarce, and there are a large number of elderly people and people with underlying diseases; the movement of urban and rural population during the Spring Festival travel season will greatly affect the trend of the epidemic.
The research team believes that there is an urgent need to start an emergency plan for the spread of the Omicron epidemic to rural areas, allocate more medical resources to rural grassroots, do a good job in emergency use of effective drugs and new vaccines, and do a good job of anti-new coronavirus specific drugs and The production reserve, distribution and clinical rational use of auxiliary drugs and traditional Chinese medicines with definite curative effects; implement classified and layered treatment, and strengthen the ability to treat severe cases in small and medium-sized towns; continue to accurately use non-pharmaceutical public health measures (wearing N95 masks in indoor spaces, Maintain social distance, appropriately increase the frequency of public transportation to avoid crowding, etc.), strive to reduce the peak of the epidemic, and relieve the heavy pressure on the medical system and medical staff.
The research team also proposes to continue to do a good job of full-course immunization of high-risk groups, start the fourth dose of booster vaccination for high-risk groups; strengthen the popularization of personal and family prevention and control knowledge and skills, do a good job in health promotion and risk communication, and protect the people especially those who are in difficulty. To ensure the life and health of the community, to ensure China's smooth escape from the epidemic, and to promote the orderly recovery and development of the social economy.
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