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At the beginning of this month of December,
China, after three years
locked
in its Covid zero policy
, has begun to take the first steps towards a moderate opening and to learn to live with the virus.
The Asian giant relaxes the strict measures
, including the massive centralized quarantines, just when it is experiencing an increase in infections and when the World Health Organization (WHO) has shown its concern "about the evolution of the pandemic [in China], with more and more reports of serious cases," according to its director general,
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
.
He himself has requested
more information from the Chinese authorities
on positive cases, hospitalizations and ICU admissions "to make a complete assessment of the situation", which could worsen if the predictions of the
consultancy Airfinity, from the United Kingdom, specialized in predictive health analysis and architect of the first intelligence platform, come true and analysis dedicated to Covid-19.
This company
forecasts that "China will see two spikes in the number of cases
as Covid-19 spreads across the country.
The first peak would occur in mid-January and the second in early March
."
The consultancy has examined data from China's regional provinces and notes that "the current outbreak is growing faster in some regions than others and that cases are increasing much faster in Beijing and Guangdong."
Using the trends of these regional data, "our team of epidemiologists - they point out from Airfinity - has predicted that the first peak will be in regions where cases are currently increasing and a second peak driven by subsequent increases in other Chinese provinces."
According to the model used by the consultant,
it is estimated that "case rates could reach 3.7 million per day in January (in the second half of the month) and 4.2 million per day in March 2023
", in its first days.
"Today, our modeling suggests that there are likely to be
more than a million cases a day in China and more than 5,000 deaths a day
. This is in stark contrast to official data, which reports 1,800 infections and just seven official deaths during the last week", point out from the consultancy.
Airfinity's head of vaccines and epidemiology, Dr Louise Blair, notes: "China has halted mass testing and is no longer reporting asymptomatic cases. This combination means that official data is unlikely to be a true reflection of the outbreak that It's being experienced all over the country."
In addition,
China has also changed the way it records Covid deaths "to include only those who die of respiratory failure or pneumonia after testing positive
. This is unlike other countries, which record deaths within a time frame. "
of a positive test or when Covid-19 is attributed to the cause of death".
This change "could minimize the extent of deaths observed" in the Asian giant.
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Already last November,
this same consultancy published an analysis of the risk of mortality in China in the event of lifting its zero Covid policy
.
He then estimated that between 1.3 and 2.1 million people could die.
The reason was none other than the low vaccination and booster rates, as well as the lack of hybrid immunity.
The risk analysis conducted by this company in November
used "peak cumulative cases and deaths from Hong Kong's BA.1 wave as a proxy for mainland China.
Hong Kong adopted a zero-Covid approach for the first two years of the pandemic. Therefore, when the more transmissible omicron sublineage BA.1 struck again in February, population immunity to infection was low, which, combined with low vaccination coverage, led to a large wave of infections and deaths. , especially among the elderly," they point out from Airfinity.
In almost three years of the pandemic and according to official figures, in the most populous nation in the world, more than 5,000 people have died of the around 350,000 who have been infected and who have had symptoms.
In addition, the Chinese authorities have indicated that
around 90% of its population is vaccinated against Covid
, but the proportion of people aged 60 and over who have received two doses is 86.4%, while the percentage who have received booster injection drops to 68.2%.
"
Mainland China has very low levels of immunity in its population. Its citizens were vaccinated with domestically produced Sinovac and Sinopharm injections, which have been shown to be significantly less effective
and provide less protection against infections and deaths," says the consultant.
In addition, she adds that vaccine-induced immunity "has diminished over time, and with low booster intake and no natural infections, the population is more susceptible to serious illness."
According to his data, the current booster vaccination among China's 80-plus years "is 40%, while Hong Kong's primary vaccination was 34% in February 2022, when it experienced a large increase in cases due to the omicron BA.1" variant.
Added to the low immunization from vaccines,
"China's Covid zero strategy also means that the population has almost no immunity naturally acquired through a previous infection
," the platform points out, and as a result of these factors, it points out: "Our Analysis shows that if mainland China sees a wave similar to the one that hit Hong Kong in February, its health system could reach full capacity, as there could be between 167 and 279 million cases across the country, which could lead to between 1.3 and 2.1 million deaths".
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