Political deadlock in Iraq, social anger in Jordan, protest movement in Iran.
In an attempt to defuse the crises in the region, Amman is hosting a meeting on Tuesday, December 20, bringing together France and representatives of the Middle East, including Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The "Baghdad II" conference is being held on the shores of the Dead Sea, after a first edition in the Iraqi capital in August 2021, at the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron and Iraq.
"The purpose of such a meeting is to bring neighbors and Iraq's partners around the table to try to move forward by promoting dialogue", according to the French presidency.
“No one expects miracles”
A risky bet in a still unstable region.
Iran is bloodily suppressing a wave of popular demonstrations, Iraq has just reached a fragile compromise after a year of political crisis, Syria remains a site of confrontation between powers and Lebanon is without a president, to name but a few. some of the regional crises.
According to the Elysée, the meeting aims to "provide support for the stability, security, prosperity of Iraq and deal with the whole region since Iraq is a pivotal country".
"This summit has great ambitions but no one expects miracles," says Riad Kahwaji, director of the Near East and Gulf Institute for Military Analysis (Inegma).
He explains that France plays a crucial role, by "keeping the thread of dialogue on behalf of Westerners with Iran, especially since the Vienna nuclear negotiations are currently in difficulty".
"Finalize" nuclear negotiations
Josep Borrell, the European Union's foreign minister who is coordinating the Iranian nuclear talks, will be in Jordan, as will Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
The latter considered that this summit would be "a good opportunity" for Iran "to finalize" the nuclear negotiations.
Started my visit to #Jordan meeting Foreign Minister @AymanHsafadi.
I congratulated Jordan for hosting tomorrow's Second Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership to, and we discussed ways to work together to support #Iraq's sovereignty, security and stability.
1/2 pic.twitter.com/NNpCajfJnG
— Josep Borrell Fontelles (@JosepBorrellF) December 19, 2022
His Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhane is expected at the conference, as is the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.
For Riad Kahwaji, an analyst based in Dubai, it will be necessary to see "what is the disposition of Tehran, which plays a central role in the crises of the region, from Iraq to Syria via Lebanon and Yemen, to do compromises".
Iran has accused its regional rival, Saudi Arabia, of encouraging the unprecedented protest movement in the country.
Diplomatic relations between the two states have been broken since 2016.
"We are willing to return to normal relations and reopen embassies when the Saudi side is ready," Iran's foreign minister said on Monday.
Iran's involvement in the Ukrainian conflict through the supply of drones to Russia further complicates the situation, according to Riad Kahwaji.
Test for Iraqi Prime Minister
The conference will be a test for the new Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohamed Chia al-Soudani, appointed after more than a year of political deadlock and considered closer to Iran than his predecessor.
"Prime Minister Soudani is co-organizing this conference with us. Therefore, there is a desire for continuity on his part which is to be noted", underlines the French presidency.
Hamzeh Hadad, visiting scholar at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR), believes that "the first summit was intended to show that Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazimi could bring together the leaders of the region, in particular the Gulf countries, in Baghdad".
During this second edition in Jordan, "Prime Minister Soudani will also aim to show that he can maintain these relations", he adds.
"However, I believe that this time, Iraqis and non-Iraqis alike would like to see the meeting lead to a more serious agenda," said the researcher.
The meeting is to address common issues like global warming and food security and energy cooperation.
Emmanuel Macron, who traveled on Monday to the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle off Egypt for the traditional Christmas party with French troops, will also meet with the King of Jordan, Abdallah II, "ally in the fight against terrorism", according to Paris.
The Jordanian army has announced that it will deploy in force from Amman airport to the Dead Sea conference center, about 50 km west of the capital, where the meeting is being held .
With AFP
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