Good news, but vigilance is required.
“The current epidemic (of monkeypox) is decreasing in a major way”, but it “remains difficult” to assess the risks of rebound or resurgence of monkeypox due to “a large number of unknowns” , notes in an opinion published Monday Committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks (Covars), successor to the Scientific Council, chaired by immunologist Brigitte Autran.
In the short term, for the most exposed, in particular men having homosexual relations with several partners, the preferred scenario is that the virus continues to circulate "low noise" but evolves towards elimination, if prevention and vaccination are maintained. .
A possible rebound "if behavior relaxes"
"If behavior relaxes and vaccination coverage remains insufficient", the committee does not, however, exclude a "rebound of the epidemic".
About 132,750 vaccinations had been carried out in France as of November 17, on a target population "estimated between 100,000 and 300,000 people, depending on the intensity of the risk".
After a peak at the end of August, the vaccination rate fell sharply to stabilize at around 3,000 per week (mainly second injections) at the start of November.
In the medium and long term, the Covars deems the elimination of monkeypox on an international scale “unlikely” and therefore considers “a risk of epidemic resumptions”, even “seasonal”, in France, even if the epidemic would be controlled. in the country by then.
To "limit these risks of resurgence and increase resilience to the disease", the committee recommends "strengthening" prevention, surveillance and research on the disease.
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