• INSEE delivered its population projections for the Paca region on Thursday by 2050. The population will grow slowly, driven by net migration alone.

    After 2050, this will decrease according to the projected scenario.

Aging population, declining fertility and gradual disappearance of the baby-boom generation… the projections of the population in the Paca region by 2050 established by INSEE suggest a slow decline in the number of inhabitants on this date.

Until then, growth will continue solely due to a positive migratory balance, a first.

"Over the period 2013-2018, the increase in the number of inhabitants in Paca (+0.2% per year) was half due to the natural balance and the migratory balance", details INSEE in a study published this Thursday.

For the period 2018-2050, INSEE projects low population growth of 175,000 inhabitants supported only by a positive migratory balance, bringing the number of inhabitants in Paca to 5.2 million.

The envisaged natural balance will even be negative over the period and from the mid-2020s, with more deaths than births, resulting in a 0.2% drop in the population.

All the regions of metropolitan France are experiencing the same scenario in terms of the natural balance, with the exception of Ile-de-France, specifies INSEE.

An ever-aging population

You will have calculated it, the differential of the two data gives an annual increase of 0.1%.

This migratory balance is essentially due to internal mobility, that is to say residents settling in from other departments and regions of France.

A new proof of the attractiveness of the region if necessary.

However, INSEE does not have the geographical origin of these new inhabitants, nor statistics on the proportion among them who come from abroad.

In this regional group, it should be noted that not all departments experience the same dynamics.

This demographic growth is based solely on the Bouches-du-Rhône, the Var and the Vaucluse to a lesser extent, the study estimates.

This scenario draws a population peak in 2048 for the Paca region.

Year after which the population will experience a slow decline to expect a loss of 60,000 inhabitants in twenty years.

But there too with disparities.

For example, the department of Alpes-Maritimes will experience a decline in its population from 2035 and that of Alpes-de-Haute-Provence from 2030.

Another salient element of the study is the sharp increase in inhabitants aged 65 and over by 2050. If they currently represent only 23% of inhabitants, their share will reach 30% within 30 years.

That is 450,000 additional inhabitants aged 65 or over.

“An increase entirely driven by those aged 75 and over,” concludes INSEE.


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