The number of births this year will fall below 800,000 for the first time, 8 years earlier than the country's forecast

The number of births, which indicates the number of children born in a year, is estimated to fall below 800,000 for the first time since the start of national statistics, according to a major think tank, the Japan Research Institute. summarized.

If the number falls below 800,000 this year, it means that the declining birthrate is progressing at a faster pace than expected, eight years earlier than the national forecast.

The Japan Research Institute has estimated the number of births for one year based on the number of children born from January to August, which is announced by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

As a result, the number of births this year is about 770,000 nationwide, a decrease of about 40,000 from the previous year, or about 5%, and 800,000 for the first time since 1899 when the country started collecting statistics. This means that it is expected to fall below

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of births has been on a downward trend since the mid-1970s. 7,000 people have decreased.

According to a forecast released by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 2017, the number of births will fall below 800,000 in 2030, eight years from now, indicating that the declining birth rate is progressing at a faster pace than expected. Become.

The Japan Research Institute, which made the estimate, analyzed that the progress of the declining birthrate is related to the fact that the number of marriages has continued to decrease since last year, as the infection of the new corona spreads.

Changes in the number of births

The number of births was 1,386,981 in 1899, when statistics were first collected.

After that, the upward trend continued, and in 1949, when the first baby boom occurred, it reached the highest number of 2,696,638.

After that, there was a downward trend, and from the 1960s to the middle of the 1970s, there was a temporary increase, reaching 2,091,983 in 1973, the second baby boom, but then decreased again.

In 1989, the number was 1,246,802, and in the 1990s, it remained around 1.2 million, but in the 2000s, it began to decline further, and in 2016, it fell below 1 million for the first time to 977,242. rice field.

The number of marriages is also on a downward trend.

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of marriages per year has continued to decline since the 2000s.

Recently, in 2019, the so-called "Reiwa wedding" increased from the previous year to 599,007 couples, but in 2020, it decreased by 73,500 couples compared to the previous year to 525,507 couples. , In 2021, the number of pairs decreased by 24,369 from the previous year to 501,138, the lowest since the war.

In addition, according to the Basic Survey on Birth Trends, which is conducted about once every five years by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, as of 2021, the number of people who answered that they "have no intention of getting married for the rest of their lives" from the age of 18 onwards. The number of marriages up to the age of 34 is increasing for both men and women, so the Japan Research Institute is concerned that the number of marriages will continue to decrease in the future.

Expert "The next 10 years will be a particularly important period for countermeasures"

Takumi Fujinami, senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute, Ltd., who made the estimate, said that the number of births this year is expected to fall below 800,000, saying, ``While the number of births in 2015 exceeded 1 million, there were only a few. It will decrease by more than 20% in seven years.If the birth rate continues to decline, it will have a major impact on domestic social security problems and economic growth, so countermeasures are an urgent issue." increase.

After that, "In the 1990s, the number of births was relatively stable at about 1.2 million people, and children in that age range are in their 20s and 30s, and they are just about to get married and have children, so I think it's important to think about the future. 10 years will be a particularly important period for addressing the declining birthrate."