The elections for the 25th Israeli Knesset did not express sudden trends or far from the reality in which the entity has been living in recent years, although it would suggest, for the first time in its history, the formation of a right-wing, religious extremist government coalition, which will most likely be able to withstand throughout the term of the next government, unlike governments that did not It has survived the past four years, during which it held 5 rounds of elections to the Knesset.
These elections may constitute the biggest right-wing revolution after the 1977 elections, in which the Likud led by Menachem Begin managed to dominate the Israeli government, thus ending the periods of the Labor Party’s rule since the establishment of the usurper entity in 1948. The former Israeli Yitzhak Rabin in 1995. Since that date, the hegemony of the Likud and the right over political life in the entity has been consolidated, affected by the outbreak of the second intifada from 2000 to 2005, which led to the stagnation and end of the political settlement process.
During the election campaign, the Likud raised a banner entitled: "It's over, we're done."
In it, the outgoing prime minister, Yair Lapid, and his coalition partner, Mansour Abbas appear on the advertising platforms, in a clear indication that the participation of the Palestinians in government is a red line that must be prevented by force.
However, the difference between the new Zionist alliance and what preceded it, is that it represents a strong and cohesive alliance between right-wing Zionism and religious Zionism.
The Likud won 32 seats, a number equal to what was obtained by the extremist religious parties, which include a coalition between "Religious Zionism" led by Ben Gvir and "Jewish Power" led by Smotrich (14 seats, up from 6), and the ultra-Orthodox parties, which include the "Jewish Movement" Shas and United Torah Judaism (18 seats, up from 14).
This makes these parties a strong weight that makes it difficult for incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to deal with them with the logic of assimilation, as he did in the past when they were a minority in the government coalition.
How would it be if we knew that the Likud list, which was originally classified as a center-right, now includes members of the Knesset from the religious Zionists?
In addition, there are at least 18 additional seats for right-wing parties outside Netanyahu's prospective coalition, which are 12 seats for the National Camp Alliance (the coalition of generals) led by General Gantz, Sa'ar and General Gadi Eisenkot, and 6 seats for the far-right, nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party led by a project owner. Transfer Avigdor Lieberman.
This means consolidating the power of the right in the Israeli Knesset, whether within the government or the opposition (if it is correct to call it the opposition) with more than 80 seats (two thirds of the Knesset), with the Zionist center-left force limited to 4 seats for the Labor Party, at a time when the presence of the left faded after the failure of the party Meretz has been represented in the Knesset since the establishment of the entity in 1948.
This practically means the end of the role of the Israeli left, and its influence on the party map.
While the Yesh Atid party (center), which won 24 seats in the opposition, remained without its leader, Yair Lapid, the outgoing prime minister, any chance to compete with Netanyahu in forming the next government.
It can be said that the bloc opposing the religious right headed by Netanyahu disintegrated and vanished as long as it was not united by a program other than opposition to Netanyahu's accession to power.
As for the Arab bloc, it disintegrated into 3 parts, two of which succeeded in obtaining 5 seats each, while the National Democratic Gathering, the Arab party with the most visible nationalist character among the Arab parties headed by Sami Abu Shehadeh, failed to obtain the electoral threshold that qualifies it for representation. in the Knesset.
Fueling the National Motivation
Thus, Netanyahu, who is being persecuted by the Israeli judiciary on corruption charges, was able to return with force to lead the next government, backed by a right-wing and religious ultra-Orthodox movement.
The Likud leader approached the "Religious Zionism" alliance by supporting MK Ben Gvir and mediating between him and "Smotrich" to unite ranks and run in the elections within one list, after a dispute erupted between the two sides weeks ago.
He also worked to inflame the Jewish nationalist motive by inciting Palestinian Arab voters, and working to prevent them from influencing the elections, touching on the fears of the right-wing and Haredi movements on the security front, which was reinforced by the Palestinian donation during the Battle of Sif al-Quds last year.
During the election campaign, the Likud raised a banner entitled: "It's over, we're done."
In it, the outgoing prime minister, Yair Lapid, and his coalition partner, Mansour Abbas, appear on the ad platforms in the unified list, in a clear indication that the participation of the Palestinians in government is a red line that must be prevented by force.
It is certain that Netanyahu, with his personality known for cunning, cunning and pragmatism, will resort to maintaining the cohesion of his alliance through toughness and cruelty in the face of the Palestinian resistance with deliberate and steady steps, but they will most likely not be comprehensive as his right-wing allies want.
New Alliance Restrictions
However, this alliance will have consequences for the next Israeli prime minister.
He is forced to deal with his main partner, the Alliance of Religious Zionism, led by Ben Gvir, who announced that he would demand the portfolio of Minister of Internal Security to be responsible for the police that deals with security with the Palestinians.
This Ben Gvir adopts the anti-Palestinian Kahanist principles, and explicitly calls for their killing. He also pledged to pass the law of executing the perpetrators of operations, expelling their families, confiscating their lands and deporting them, and called for giving the occupation army a free hand to do all of this.
As well as allowing public prayer for Jews in Al-Aqsa, and the expansion of settlement policies.
In a victory speech he delivered after the results of the television samples of the election results appeared, the extremist Ben Gvir called for the release of the hand of the army and settlers, and the settlement of all of what he called the Land of Israel, declaring the slogan "We are back to be the owners of the house."
Netanyahu will find himself facing the test of fulfilling the request of his ally Ben Gvir for the post of Minister of Defense, and of dealing with his extremist demands, which, if he does, will anger the United States and the West against him.
The oppression of the Palestinians and the desecration of Al-Aqsa
Regardless of whether he accepts these demands in full or not, it is certain that Netanyahu, with his character known as cunning, cunning and pragmatism, will resort to maintaining the cohesion of his alliance, by being tough and ruthless in the face of the Palestinian resistance with deliberate and steady steps, but most likely they will not be as comprehensive as his right-wing allies want.
Certainly, he will not be less than the previous prime minister, Lapid, in the policy of pleasing the extremists in the Al-Aqsa Mosque, by increasing the number of intruders, and seeking to impose silent and non-silent Jewish prayers in the mosque’s courtyards, and imposing the temporal and spatial division in order to build the temple - God forbid - but he will do This took gradual and successive steps to prevent the outbreak of violent confrontations and more tension with Jordan.
He will also be forced to make major concessions in domestic issues in particular, and in relation to "the sanctity of the Sabbath", and the religious aspects of Judaism to his hard-line partners.
In this context, he will exploit the governmental consensus to bring about fundamental changes in the Israeli judicial system, which will save him from imprisonment on charges of corruption, and appoint right-wing judges instead of the left, especially in the Supreme Court, a point that will move the entity further and further away from the liberalism and internal democracy that It does not include the Palestinians, of course.
These amendments will not only affect the Israelis, but are intended to facilitate land confiscation (a practical application of the annexation project that was previously retracted under American pressure), settlement, deportation, and assassination, and removing legal obstacles in front of them.
This step may have negative repercussions on the relationship between the occupation and the West, which it claims is based on the values of democracy and liberalism.
Without a doubt, they are false values because they are selective values, whether in the entity or in the West.
Legitimizing settlement and perpetuating annexation
In political issues, the settlement issue stands at its head, as Netanyahu will try to legitimize the small outposts in the West Bank and turn them into settlements, a program previously proposed by the Likud.
In order to avoid negative reactions from the United States and the West, he will gradually take this step, and try to pass it as a fait accompli, taking advantage of the preoccupation of the United States and Europe with the Ukraine war.
The truth is that the Israeli Prime Minister was intent on taking this step in the past, but he postponed it due to the complications on the international scene. He may find this time an opportunity to implement it in gradual steps.
Netanyahu will continue to affirm his political positions on settlements and the absolute rejection of the two-state solution, and work to annex the Palestinian valleys to the entity (30% of the area of the West Bank) and be tough with the Palestinian Authority.
Zionist extremism will extend to external positions such as trying to amend the gas agreement with Lebanon, and dealing with it just as the Oslo agreement was dealt with by emptying it of many of its contents, claiming that it is a bad agreement.
The Israeli position will also be tougher towards the nuclear agreement with Iran, while continuing the policy of striking Iranian sites or personalities related to the nuclear program, without hitting Iranian facilities, except with an American cover, because the price of that will be high for the entity, in addition to the fact that the two sides do not They want to get to this point.
Extremism can only be broken by force
In conclusion, it must be pointed out here that these political positions towards the Palestinians have become the object of consensus among the active Zionist forces. With the disappearance and practically end of the left from the political arena, you hardly distinguish between one party and another, whether right-wing, religious, centrist or other, except in mechanisms And ways to apply these issues, and the extent of taking into account Western pressures.
Rather, these governments are racing to satisfy their various formations and their audience, by oppressing the Palestinian people and aggression against their lands and holy sites, rejecting their rights and jumping on their constants.
The Palestinian people have no choice but to continue the resistance and the intifada, which has proven to be the only way to restore rights with the failure of all political solutions.
As for his political forces, they are required to unite within a national program based on support for the resistance and adherence to constants.
It is good to point out here that the opportunity to complete a new prisoner exchange deal has been enhanced with a prime minister who is able to take the decision to exchange, after the previous government coalition failed to agree on that. Netanyahu had previously taken a similar decision in 2011. This requires maturation of the resistance’s conditions To regain the momentum of the issue.
On the Arab level, Netanyahu will be able to continue with the file of normalization, but it will not be with the previous momentum with the withdrawal of the United States from the region, and the presence of the Biden government, the less enthusiastic or even capable democratic government in this file, especially the recent damage that occurred in its relationship with Saudi Arabia.
It is important to emphasize that Zionist extremism and extremism can only be broken by confronting it and inflicting losses on it, until it reaches the conviction that it cannot bear the losses. As for continuing to make concessions and normalization with it, it will only increase extremism and extremism.