Chronicles of the beginning of winter

Well, the pre-winter - so far only a pre-winter, mild and still quite warm - is gradually beginning to come into its full rights in the vast and ancient territories of the Old Continent.

And now, the seasonal drop in temperature officially noted by the relevant services (although recorded with a two-week delay, which European power engineers were very, but not long happy about) also officially opens the beginning of the winter season in Europe.

After that, five large gas markets in Europe at once - Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland - proceed to the selection of gas from their underground storage facilities.

And this despite the fact that, for example, in Paris during the day the weather is quite festive, albeit slightly cloudy: for this time of year + 15 ... + 17 ° С - this is very, very good.

In Berlin, in fairness, it is already somewhat cooler, but even there a real seasonal cooling is expected only closer to the third decade of November.

At the same time, the Russian Gazprom is already warning not so much even its European colleagues (they already understand everything), but European consumers that, we quote, “the load on UGS facilities in Europe will be higher than in previous years due to changed logistics and sources of gas supply for the European market”.

And, in fact, there is nothing surprising here.

UGS facilities, in fact, are by no means a way to successfully overcome the heating season, no matter what ritual shamanic dances dance around their “fullness/unfilledness” various, as it were, European (but in fact, as we think, not at all) politicians and officials from Brussels and other European capitals.

They're just not meant for that.

Purely technical.

And in order to understand this, it is more than enough to have a secondary education, which, although often not quite specialized, seems to be present in most European bureaucrats.

Although…

Anyway.

Storage facilities are mostly needed to level out fluctuations at limit and peak loads.

Both physical and financial.

Which, by the way, with the current configuration of the European energy system with its "green transition" and other "renewable sources" are inherently inevitable.

Even in relatively mild winters.

And the problems of the Old Continent with such an indicator as the occupancy of UGSFs are not initially solved: as they are filled, and with current trends, they will empty in the first months of next year.

And how to continue to live?

The question, in general, is far from being idle.

And it's not just the physical presence/absence of gas in the markets of the Old Continent.

The question, sorry, is the price.

Lots of examples.

Here is the simplest one: the German energy concern Uniper, which is absolutely backbone for the German economy, officially announced in the middle of last week that the net loss attributable to the company's shareholders increased by 8.5 times in annual terms only in the first three quarters of this year and reached €40,374 billion. Yes, of course, it is routinely noted there that this was largely due to a reduction in Russian gas supplies.

Well, it’s not the Russian Federation that first staged some sophisticated dances with Siemens turbines on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, and then completely (to be sure, apparently) blew it up at a loss.

And here, of course, one should not think that these are problems exclusively for the shareholders of the Uniper concern - these problems will inevitably form a very serious burden on the entire German economy.

And it is no coincidence that almost all the world's media are now vying with each other about the transfer of production by the flagships of the German economy, such as BASF, Volkswagen (these seem to be going to be curtailed not only in Germany, but throughout Eastern Europe - hello, Czech Republic!) and BMW, in the USA and China.

No one hides the reasons: at the current level of energy prices, energy-intensive European production is simply unprofitable.

Yes, if only this!

According to Bavarian Radio, high energy prices are forcing German agricultural producers to turn off the greenhouse business and refuse to grow vegetables.

Everything is simple here.

Manufacturers are confident that, given the current trends, everything will rise in price, as they say, along the chain: starting with seeds, fertilizers, protective equipment and ending with packaging materials and, of course (this is, as it were, implied), diesel fuel, gas and electricity.

The prices for which are already excessively high for "greenhouses".

But this is only one side of the coin.

Here (so far only in passing) one more factor is mentioned, which is becoming a system-forming factor - the rapidly deteriorating final consumer demand, literally before our eyes.

No, in the same material of the Bavarian Radio, of course, something is already said about the refusal of consumers - and this is in rich and prosperous Bavaria!

- from "spontaneous" purchases of "premium" cherry tomatoes.

But where will they get the money to buy everything else edible, even “non-premium”, in the same blessed Bavaria, the former employees of the legendary “Bavarian motors”, BMW, who are leaving in different directions of the world, agricultural producers have not yet thought about.

Just as European officials of various levels do not think about it, joyfully reporting to the gradually freezing public about “real overcrowding of underground storage facilities”.

Oh sorry, it's useless.

Winter is just beginning, and gas is already being pumped out of underground storage facilities.

And sooner or later (rather sooner) the question will arise again: where and, most importantly, with what money to buy this gas so that they, these UGS facilities, can be refilled?

As a result, the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry at the beginning of the month publishes a survey that shows that German companies operating “on the ground” are practically preparing for the inevitable severe economic downturn within the next 12 calendar months.

And winter hasn't even arrived yet.

But the expert community, unlike the slightly sluggish German Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is already busy not with these damn small details at the level of small and medium-sized European businesses, but with actual calculations around the main question today: has the entire continental economy at the macro level already passed what is called point of no return, or not yet?

And then it would be good to understand (this is important both for ourselves and for our export flows, including energy ones), when and where exactly it will pass this point of no return, it seems that sooner or later it will definitely pass.

And for this, among other things (and by no means out of idle curiosity, and even more so not out of gloating), we have to conduct this chronicle of the beginning Russian-European winter, which is already gradually becoming boring due to its predestination.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.