Tunisia is witnessing a series of unprecedented crises in its modern history, starting with the loss of basic materials such as food and medicine, to the shortage of fuel, whose prices have risen five times this year, with the inflation rate rising to nearly 10%.

This series of successive crises reflects the economic situation that the country is witnessing, and the size of the public finance deficit, after a year and a half of President Qais Saeed's control of all authorities and powers in the country, which is what he resorted to negotiating with the International Monetary Fund about an amount of 4 billion dollars to finance the state budget. Confronting the crisis, which the official discourse insists on denying, and accusing unknown parties of being behind it, targeting the president's project to build a "new republic."

Faced with this new and unprecedented situation in the modern history of Tunisia, the question arises about the background of this crisis, its political and economic implications, and the prospects for overcoming it under the rule of President Kais Saied.

If the economic movement stops due to this crisis, the state is threatened with bankruptcy, and its institutions may be completely paralyzed and unable to cope with emergencies, which represents a serious threat to national security.

 The fuel crisis

The semi-annual report of the Ministry of Finance confirmed that all state incomes are directed to pay the wages of employees, and with the trade deficit exacerbating to record levels of more than 19 billion dinars, the Central Bank’s savings of hard currency fell to 107 days of supply, and the cost of debt extraction for the state increased after the increase in The interest rate of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the public debt amounted to nearly 110 billion dinars, which created a deficit in public finances for the supply of grain and fuel, as well as the ability to finance public investments.

This huge deficit in the state budget made it impossible to pay the dues to the fuel suppliers, and the size of the dues to some companies amounted to 100 million dollars.

With Tunisia's sovereign rating downgraded by credit rating agencies to low grades - Moody's "CAA1" (CAA1) and Fitch "CCC" (CCC) - the country has lost the confidence of investors and suppliers in its ability to abide by its financial commitments, and the companies providing the country have been unable to With grain and fuel, borrowing from banks to finance its contracts with Tunisia, which prompted it to impose receipt of its dues in advance, and to refuse to unload its shipments in Tunisian ports before receiving the price.

This deteriorating state of the national economy and the deficit in public finances prompted the European Development Bank to intervene by granting Tunisia a loan of 150 million dollars, to secure food and unload ships loaded with wheat and anchored in the ports.

In a step more indicative of the depth of the crisis, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken announced granting Tunisia "urgent aid" estimated at $60 million as a subsidy for poor families, with UNICEF distributing this aid instead of official state institutions.

To the extent that this small and urgent sum, according to the expression of the US State Department, which is usually allocated to confront natural disasters, wars and famines, expresses the reality of the economic and social situation in which the country has deteriorated, it confirms the absence of the state, which accepted the subsidy submissively, laden with a lot of humiliation and insulting content in its efficiency and the honesty of its institutions.

The economic implications of the crisis

The crisis that Tunisia is witnessing in the field of hydrocarbons is an indication of the decline in the size of the strategic reserve to low alarming levels, which is denied by the government, which previously announced a decline from 60 days to 45 days, and then stopped declaring the size of the strategic reserve, which sparked Doubts about the figures announced by the government, but the Secretary General of the General Oil University of the Tunisian General Labor Union stated that the strategic stock of fuel is not enough for more than one week, and this situation threatens to stop the economic movement completely if the depletion of the strategic reserve of hydrocarbons continues, without being able to The power to save the situation by supplying new shipments of fuel needs in the internal market, which seems impossible in the foreseeable future due to the lack of liquidity and the deficit witnessed by public finances, in addition to the impossible conditions for the supplying companies, which have imposed on the state to pay in advance for the price of fuel shipments, including Transportation costAnd insurance, after paying its dues, which are owed by the state.

If the economic movement stops because of this crisis, the state is threatened with bankruptcy, and its institutions may be completely paralyzed and unable to face emergencies, which represents a serious threat to national security.

This economic situation in which the country has deteriorated, and the government has no choice but to submit to the dictates of the International Monetary Fund, which are painful conditions related to reducing the size of wages in the public office, and lifting subsidies on basic materials, which means a significant increase in prices, with the trend towards privatization and neglect in the sector general.

The Secretary-General of the Tunisian General Labor Union, Noureddine Taboubi, believes that the government has already begun to implement the conditions of the International Monetary Fund, and that the series of crises that the country is witnessing is a theater by the government to pass these dictates in a deceptive way, so that the people witness the absence of basic materials, and then announce their availability After raising subsidies and their prices, which pushes citizens to accept the fait accompli, the presence of basic materials at high prices is better than their absence, and the authority’s media propaganda may succeed in marketing this as an achievement to be reckoned with.

In fact, the union leadership itself is not far from the accusation of deception by concluding a fictitious and meager agreement with the government, knowing very well that it paves the way for an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, by implementing its conditions that the union announces its rejection of in exchange for overturning the initial ruling of the illegality of the last conference of the union.

If the government rejects the accusations of the Secretary-General of the Tunisian General Labor Union against it, the end result of the economic scene is the same, which is complete submission to the dictates of the International Monetary Fund, with all that this implies of an exacerbation of the social crisis that opens the future of the country to the unknown.

This government policy, subject to the dictates of the International Monetary Fund, will have devastating repercussions on the social level, which opens the country's future to the unknown, and portends an unprecedented social explosion, the signs of which began in the nightly protest movements in many Tunisian cities.

The political implications of the crisis

Tunisia is witnessing a state of political instability as a result of the exceptional measures taken by President Kais Saied on 25 July 2021, and most of the political forces represented in the Salvation Front and the social democratic parties consider the existing authority a de facto authority that lacks legitimacy in violating the country’s constitution, which was supported by the African Court Human and Peoples Rights Resolution No. 017/2021 in which it repealed Presidential Order 117 through which President Qais Saeed seized all powers, for his explicit violation of the country’s constitution, and demanded the court to return to the democratic path, and work to establish the Constitutional Court within two years.

This political situation that emerged in Tunisia after the exceptional measures taken by President Kais Saied on July 25, 2021, had a profound impact on the economic situation that Tunisia has not witnessed in its modern history since independence.

The series of successive crises in Tunisia reflects the absence of the economic project of President Kais Saied, who seized all powers and managed all powers for nearly a year and a half, without having a clear economic vision, ignoring the calls led by the Tunisian General Labor Union to hold a national dialogue on The economic situation, and he was singled out for the decision even from the parties that accompanied him in his exceptional measures.

It seemed clear that the president coming from outside the political system, and inexperienced in managing state affairs, deals with the economic file with populist slogans, and show activities by storming vegetable stores and iron warehouses at night under the slogan of resisting monopoly, and inciting against politicians, parliamentarians and businessmen in the name of fighting corruption.

This method of dealing with the economic file prompted the president to ridicule the credit rating agencies, whose rating affects the economies of countries, and its negative rating of Tunisia had a profound impact on the national economy, causing investors, supplier companies, and banks to lose confidence in the state's ability to abide by its commitments.

In addition to all this, the president drained the country’s energies in what he called an electronic consultation in which only 535,000 people participated, at a rate of no more than 5%, and then in the referendum in which only 27% participated, and he is preparing to organize legislative elections, which 11 parties announced their boycott.

The Supreme Electoral Commission, which was installed by President Qais Saeed as an alternative to the Higher Independent Electoral Commission, announced that the cost of the referendum and legislative elections amounted to 80 million dinars.

The current economic and social crisis refers to the inability of the government, which was formed by the president to support him and who lacks powers, to deal with the economic issue due to the lack of efficiency within the government team, and the ability to set a work program to meet the economic challenges. The government to meet the market's needs of basic materials, denouncing the "impulsive tendency to consume" among the citizens!

While the general manager of the Refining Industries Company attributed the queues of cars at gas stations to the desire of Tunisians to "take advantage of the beautiful weather to refuel"!

In the context of searching for a way out of the undeniable crisis, the government was able to agree with the International Monetary Fund on a loan of 1.9 billion dollars, an amount that is nearly half of the amount demanded by the government, which is 4 billion dollars, and the amount will be disbursed over 4 years at a rate of about 500 million dollars. dollars annually.

Moreover, the agreement was made at the level of experts, and the final decision rests with the fund’s board of directors, which will meet next December, which is the month of the legislative elections that President Qais Saeed intends to hold. Parliament's popular legitimacy and political stability do not appear to be available in light of the boycott of the elections by most political and civil forces (11 parties announced their boycott of the elections).

Lebanon has previously concluded a similar agreement at the level of experts with the International Monetary Fund since April 2022, worth two billion dollars, and it is awaiting the final agreement until today.

Assuming that Tunisia obtains the final approval from the International Monetary Fund, the amount subject to the agreement will be a temporary solution to the financial crisis and serve as a cure for the disease, and it will not solve the economic and social crisis that is getting worse day by day, in light of the chronic incapacity of a government that has no powers, and that has no work but to keep pace. President and implement his recommendations.

In addition to the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund, which confirmed in its report on the agreement on the level of experts, Tunisia controls public expenditures and the mass of wages, in reference to the wage agreement with the Tunisian General Labor Union. world prices, and its initiation to reform public companies by enacting a new law for these companies.

This government policy subject to the dictates of the International Monetary Fund will have devastating repercussions on the social level, which opens the future of the country to the unknown, and portends an unprecedented social explosion, the signs of which began in the nightly protest movements in many Tunisian cities, from Bizerte in the north to Ben Guerdane and Zarzis in the south. Predicting the consequences of the next social earthquake, what the situation may stabilize upon, and how the political scene will be after it, but it will certainly afflict the Qais Saeed regime, and not necessarily in favor of its opponents or the return of the democratic path, in light of the fragmentation of the political class, but the old system may complete its project in The final finish off the revolution, and the closure of the arc of the democratic path once and for all by getting rid of the president himself, who has long illusion that it is in his service, when he is nothing more than a tool, that was employed to dismantle all the gains of the revolution and the democratic system, to return to the old regime while repeating that “there is no return.” backwards".