change of concept

　　After the two-child and three-child policies, my country advocates childbearing at the right age, and people's ideas have changed a lot.

　　Changes in old age

　　Nowadays, the social policy for old-age care is becoming more and more sound, and it is no longer necessary to rely on raising children to prevent old age. This is also very important.

　　On October 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released on its official website "The Population Continues to Expand and the Employment Situation Stable", a series of reports on economic and social development achievements since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

　　The report mentioned that my country's gender structure has been optimized and improved.

At the end of 2021, my country's male population accounted for 51.2%, and the female population accounted for 48.8%, with a total population sex ratio of 104.9, down 0.2 from 2012.

From the perspective of the sex structure of the birth population, the sex ratio of the birth population in 2021 will be 108.3 (female = 100), which is 9.4 lower than that in 2012, and the gender structure of the birth population has improved significantly.

　　On October 11, Yuan Xin, vice president of the China Population Society and a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University, told the Chengdu Business Daily-Red Star News reporter that the normal sex ratio of the birth population in my country should be 103-107, and it will drop to 108.3 in 2021, which is close to normal. The upper limit of the value.

　　Chengdu Business Daily-Red Star News reporter Hu Yiwen intern Cheng Yichen reported in Beijing

　　A prediction: the sex ratio is expected to return to "normal" within 5 years

　　Yuanxin reviewed the history of changes in the sex ratio at birth in my country.

The sex ratio of the birth population in my country was slightly higher than the normal value in the third national census in 1982, and then climbed all the way to the highest value in 2004 of 121.2.

　　By the 2020 census, the sex ratio at birth had fallen back to 111.3.

Continue to drop to 108.3 until 2021.

"I expect it will return to the normal range within 5 years." Yuanxin told reporters that after the sex ratio of the birth population drops to a normal level, it will remain relatively stable.

　　Why has the sex ratio at birth dropped by 9.4 in ten years?

　　Yuan Xin first pointed out that for a family, there are three issues to consider in terms of fertility, one is when to have children, the other is how many children to have, and the third is the gender of the children.

In the 1900s, when the sex ratio at birth was high, my country advocated late marriage and childbearing and family planning. Coupled with the traditional Chinese philosophy of favoring sons over daughters and raising children to prevent old age, this gender imbalance was particularly serious in rural areas.

After the two-child and three-child policies, my country advocates childbearing at the appropriate age, and people's attitudes have changed a lot, not only their attitudes towards the gender of children, but also their attitudes towards childbirth itself, the concept of the younger generation having boys and girls Not so strong anymore.

　　At the highest point of the sex ratio at birth, the state began to comprehensively control the sex ratio of the birth population across the country, carried out the campaign for a new trend of marriage and childbirth, and the "Caring for Girls Action", and took comprehensive interventions in education, economy, law, administration, and technology.

Yuan Xin has served as the leader of the National Care Girls Gender Ratio Expert Team.

He introduced that now, this action has been upgraded to the "Dream Girl Volunteer Action".

　　Yuanxin introduced that since the late 1990s, my country has clearly cracked down on the "two nonsense", namely "non-medical need to identify the sex of the fetus" and "non-medical need to select the sex to artificially terminate the pregnancy", and also established the only-daughter family. , Incentives and care policies for twin-girl families to guide people to face up to the gender of their children.

In addition, today's social policies for old age are getting more and more sound, and it is no longer necessary to rely on raising children to prevent old age, which is also very important.

　　How will the sex ratio at birth continue to be balanced in the future?

　　Yuanxin believes that people's attitudes have changed in general, and what our country needs to do is to continuously improve social security measures, weaken the dependence of family care on children, especially boys, and break the curse of "raising children to prevent old age".

　　A data: the sex ratio of the second child birth population has been normal

　　Data from the seventh national census showed that more than half of the provinces had a sex ratio at birth less than 109, and 6 provinces had fallen into the normal range.

Hainan, Jiangxi, and Fujian are the provinces with the highest sex ratios at birth, all exceeding 118, and the highest Hainan reaching 122, compared with 129 in 2010.

In 2010, Anhui, the highest in the country, dropped from 131 to 113, and Guangdong, the second highest, dropped from 129 to 116.

　　The sex ratio of the birth population showed an overall improvement trend, but some cities did not drop but rose instead.

For example, according to the seven census data released by the Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the province's overall sex ratio at birth has dropped from 118.94 in 2010 to 110.16 in 2020, and the highest Wenzhou city has dropped from 131.85 to 114.19, but Zhoushan City, which originally fell into the normal range But it changed from 105.57 to 110.36.

The situation of rising instead of falling is more prominent in provinces with a high sex ratio at birth.

　　Yuan Xin told reporters that, in fact, from the day when the sex ratio of the birth population was high, there were typical regional differences.

On the one hand, this is related to the regional nature of production methods. In the past, coastal areas relied on fishing for a living. A family had at least two sons, one went fishing with his father, and the other stayed on the shore to work, and had the responsibility of inheriting the lineage.

On the other hand, it is also related to local customs and culture. For example, some coastal areas have a very strong sense of clan, and still believe that the inheritance of genealogy, surnames and family business depends on boys.

　　Yuanxin believes that with the change of young people's concept of marriage and childbirth, as well as the liberalization of the fertility policy, in the future, under the general trend that the sex ratio of the birth population in the country will become more and more normal, some areas with high levels will naturally continue to decline.

　　The sex ratio of second and third births is also the focus of public attention.

Judging from the data from the Seventh Census, in 2020 before the comprehensive three-child policy, the sex ratio of the population born with the first child was 113.17, the sex ratio of the population born with the second child was 106.78, and the sex ratio of the population born with the third child was 132.93.

Compared with the first child, the sex ratio of the second child in my country has fallen into the normal range.

The sex ratio of the second child born in rural areas was 104.87, even lower than that in urban areas of 107.69.

　　"Chengdu Business Daily" October 13, 2022 Issue 05