On the day of the national holiday (anniversary of the 1911 uprising), Taiwanese Defense Minister Qiu Guozheng, speaking in parliament, announced a new interpretation of what is considered the first strike from Beijing: “Previously, we considered the first strike to be an attack using artillery shells and rockets.
Right now, Chinese drones are crossing the line unnecessarily, causing us a lot of trouble.”
Therefore, drones entering Taiwanese airspace will now be treated as a first strike.
Moreover, a week ago, the same Minister of War, speaking of retaliatory measures in the event of a violation of the red line, under the first strike meant the invasion of PRC combat aircraft into the airspace of the island, which includes a 12-mile coastline.
Now we are talking not only about manned aircraft, but also about unmanned aerial vehicles.
Which means a significant decrease in the threshold beyond which casus belli begins.
A combat aircraft (and Minister Qiu clearly did not mean an aviette or a maize) is more noticeable, its entry and exit from the airspace is more controlled, finally, the number of fighters and, even more so, bombers (even for such a large army as the Chinese) is more limited, that is, the plane is not a needle.
Whereas drones are different: translated into the language of dog breeding - from a chihuahua to a giant St. Bernard.
And if the ownership of a large combat drone can still be somehow calculated, then what about the small fry, which is sold in any radio store?
The question is not idle, because, having bought such a small Chinese-made drone (and what else? The title of the workshop of the world of the PRC deservedly) and putting on it the appropriate identification marks, anyone who wants to spoil (they say that the British are prone to this, although not only they) can launch the toy in the direction of Taiwan and thereby additionally counterbalance the world atmosphere.
After all, Qiu Guozheng promised to respond to every launch.
It can be assumed that this is the case.
Although how exactly to answer, the Taiwanese minister did not say.
Which adds to the uncertainty.
At the same time, of course, the Chinese communists, the heirs of Mao and all that - they never recognized the sovereignty of Taiwan (as, however, the United States does not formally recognize it either).
But non-recognition is non-recognition, and at the same time, for more than a quarter of a century - if you think differently, and in general since 1958 - the forceful reunification of island China with mainland China has not been on the agenda.
The PRC authorities proceed from the fact that, if no sudden movements are made, Taiwan will sooner or later follow the path of Hong Kong and Macau.
That is, it will reunite with China on the principle of "one country - two systems."
And haste here can only hurt.
Until now, such a policy seemed to justify itself, but doubts were also growing.
It is possible that if the Kuomintang still ruled monopoly on the island, it would sooner or later come to reunification with mainland China.
Many years have passed since the supporters of Chiang Kai-shek took refuge on the island.
Both the Kuomintang and the CPC are no longer the same, they have come a long way, and reconciliation in the spirit of the final embrace of the Montagues and the Capulets was, in principle, possible.
But now pluralism reigns on the island, there are other political forces for which the principle of a united China is not as sacred as for the Kuomintang.
Generations have grown up for whom Taiwan's independence is most vital.
Moreover, from the point of view of economic particularism, the island is much richer than the mainland in terms of per capita GDP, which is why the ideology of the Middle Kingdom is being eroded, giving way to the ideology of an independent Taiwanese nation.
Again, not everything was so smooth with Hong Kong.
In 2019, there was a serious attempt at a "color revolution" and getting rid of Beijing's power.
And what could be a similar jam in Taiwan - you can imagine.
Finally, the time of neutrality and even friendly neutrality of the United States - and more broadly: the Western world - in relation to China has passed.
The PRC is increasingly seen as an ever-growing threat to Western hegemony, and in general - "Steps wide, it's time to appease the fellow."
With this attitude, knocking wedges into mainland China's already not problematic relations with Taiwan is a policy that suggests itself.
Again, tomorrow (for the West) it may be too late.
In this context, Minister Qiu's statement about drones could have far-reaching implications.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.