On social networks, an article widely shared diverts the National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) to see “announcements of the current situation” and a “thinly veiled call for shortages”.
But this document is an official roadmap that has defined, since 2015, a trajectory for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions until 2050. It does not provide for shortages.
"What leads the government to advocate sobriety are the problems with gas due to the war in Ukraine and the problems with electricity due to the shutdown nuclear power plants, it's not the SNBC" , analyzes Anne Bringault, program coordinator at the Climate Action Network.
Have fuel and electricity shortages been predicted since March 2020?
This is what an Internet user, familiar with conspiracy theses, thinks he has discovered and who disseminates them via his site Le Courrier des stratèges.
He explains, in a tweet shared more than 3,800 times, to have found an “official document which proves that the shortages of fuel and electricity are programmed”.
On Facebook, this article was also posted on several pages stressing that "if we follow the official documents (which went unnoticed in their time) and the statements of President Macron, we understand that this situation of rupture is anything but innocent", the “proof” is provided by the article in the Courrier des stratèges.
On this site, the author explains that this document - it is the National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) - must be read "between the lines" to find "announcements of the current situation", warns he.
Extracts from the document would make it possible to prove this “premeditation”, such as this: “Effective actions to reduce emissions [of greenhouse gases] in the short term are therefore essential to limit as much as possible the overrun [of the carbon budget ].
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When the SNBC then evokes the need "for a large-scale social evolution" and the "promotion of more sober lifestyles and consumption", it is therefore "a thinly veiled call for shortages", comments the Internet user. .
Finally, a graph, also distributed on social networks, is supposed to prove the planned organization of these shortages: it shows the production emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy sector since 1990 and the planned objectives from 2025 until 2050. This scenario with “additions of additional measures” takes into account public policies that can enable France to meet its climate and energy objectives.
This graph is read as follows: “In March 2020, the government forecast a drop from 52 MCO2 to 36 in 2025, i.e. nearly 33%” [in reality, it should be read in millions of tonnes of CO2 equivalent].
The Internet user then asks: “And how do we manage to reduce the production of CO2 by 33% in 5 years in the field of energy production?
We understand that the official report is laconic on the subject.
The answer is given to us by the current shortages,” he concludes.
FAKE OFF
The National Low Carbon Strategy is in no way a hidden document or one that would have gone “unnoticed”.
It is an official roadmap that was introduced by the Energy Transition law for green growth, voted in 2015. The first strategy was adopted that year, then revised in 2018-2019 and again in 2020. The SNBC is regularly commented on or called upon in the press by ecological associations, think tanks or the High Council for the Climate.
The SNBC aims, as indicated on the website of the Ministry of Ecological Transition, to define a trajectory for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 2050. It sets short and medium-term objectives, called carbon budgets, and has two ambitions: achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and reduce the carbon footprint of French consumption.
Documents that are “non-binding”
"The SNBC is a good tool, because it is based on a scenario," points out Anne Bringault, program coordinator at the Climate Action Network.
However, she is surprised, the issue of energy savings is addressed more in the multiannual energy program (PPE), which is a tool for steering energy policy in France.
In the 2019-2028 PPE, a reduction in final energy consumption of 7.6% in 2023 and 16.5% in 2028 is thus forecast compared to 2012.
“But, clearly, these two documents are not binding, regrets Anne Bringault.
The 7.5% reduction target was not achieved in 2018 and was postponed to 2023." If there are climate targets, "which leads the government to advocate sobriety, which will allow reduce energy consumption more quickly, it's the problems with gas because of the war in Ukraine and the problems with electricity because of the shutdown nuclear power plants, it's not the SNBC", analyzes she.
The question of the closure of coal-fired power plants
Moreover, the graph mentioned, which is clearly extracted from the document (p.29), is misinterpreted: it concerns the energy sector, but in the SNBC, this "includes the production of electricity, everything which is refining, but it is not the fuels, in the sense of the cars that circulate and consume fuels”, emphasizes Anne Bringault, this falls within the transport sector.
The scenario called "with the addition of additional measures" is the SNBC's reference scenario and takes into account several sectors: transport, agriculture, buildings, etc.
For energy, it is based on a carbon-free energy mix, composed in 2050 of renewable and recovered heat.
However, in the short term, the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in this sector are mainly linked to the closure of coal-fired power stations.
But the Cordemais plant (Loire-Atlantique) was not finally shut down and that of Saint-Avold (Moselle) will be restarted very soon to cope with winter.
“Until 2020, the targets for reducing greenhouse gases in the energy sector were going in the right direction, because coal-fired power plants were closing,” comments Anne Bringault.
But are we on the right track for 2025?
I do not think so.
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