One and a half months before winter

I don’t know, of course, but lately I’ve begun to understand something even without any gloating that the sad saying about the fact that trouble does not come alone is far from being only Russian folk, but also, so to speak, European folk proverb.

Already at a very impressive pace, the continent is now losing physical access to energy sources.

And now to the “act of sabotage” on the Russian-European pipelines in the Baltic (one of which, Nord Stream 1, we recall, was not even subject to any sanctions, and the story with the turbines could have been ended sooner or later), The unsuccessful “Arab tour” of European leaders in search of free LNG and other joys in the conditions of the increasingly rapidly approaching winter, which is only a month and a half away, was added by the “suspension” of the largest gas field not only in Europe, but also in the world in Dutch town of Groningen.

The mining process at which was stopped by the decision of the local government no later than last weekend.

Everything is simple here.

The head of the government of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, despite the fact that he noted the need to help the EU economies in search of a solution to stabilize natural gas prices, nevertheless was forced to tell disappointed journalists that the measures were "final".

Charming in its own way oxymoron "final measures for a temporary suspension" did not embarrass him at the same time.

Moreover, they, these measures, were taken for a completely pragmatic reason: against the backdrop of a forecast by seismologists about the possibility of a strong earthquake or even a series of earthquakes if mining at the field continues.

Which, in general, is not at all surprising: the seismic situation around the once predatory giant field (remember, perhaps, the definition of excess windfall profits as the “Dutch disease”? So this is just about Groningen!), to put it mildly, was very alarming.

The last earthquake with a magnitude of 3.1, the most serious in the current year (in the past, however, there were 3.2) occurred in the area of ​​​​one of the villages of the province of the same name, and right before the adoption of this very “final decision”.

And, excuse me, given the situation with the vulnerability of the coast of the Netherlands, which is not by chance called the "country of channels and dams", this "solution" looks at least very reasonable and pragmatic.

Jokes aside, but since 1994, the region of the "super-deposit" Groningen has already experienced, for a second, more than 900 (!) Earthquakes with a magnitude of up to 3.6, and the connection between earthquakes and the development of the field has been fully and unambiguously proven.

And given the depth of the produced gas (and, accordingly, the voids formed after it is pumped out) - 2.5-3 km - sooner or later on the "coast of dams and canals", even from a purely common sense point of view, one can expect quite a "big wave"

And this is not some kind of hypothetical "climate change" that is still largely hypothetical.

This is quite a realistic picture.

And this, sorry, seriously.

What is perhaps the most amusing thing here is that just a few days before the events described, analysts from the American agency Bloomberg, immediately after the story of the blowing up of our Nord Streams, calculated that the Europeans, it turns out, do not need Russian pipeline gas at all.

As well as replacing it with Arab LNG, which Europeans are not yet given anyway.

Or even the American one, which they simply lack.

The technical capacities of Groningen, noted in Bloomberg, allow producing 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

Which is quite comparable with the supplies of "Gazprom" through Germany last year (about 46 billion cubic meters).

Well, what is there, one wonders, to blame the garden and respected overseas partners for the destruction of their own energy?

Vaughn, you have Groningen, and not just "shales".

Which you also for some reason do not develop.

Well, just think, the Netherlands will shake quite a bit.

Yes, at least in general, “a little bit” will wash away: on a global scale, this outstanding event may find a place on the front pages of American newspapers somewhere between stock reports and a longread with the history of some stellar LGBT “family”.

And here is such an affront.

Almost like with OPEC + and a decrease in production by 2 million barrels per day.

Only the pipe is lower and the smoke is thinner.

Anyway.

In principle, and the joke is with him, with this same Groningen, there, frankly speaking, everything has been going to this “final decision” for a long time.

The situation with seismology there has long been quite critical.

This has already become such a commonplace that it is at least unprofessional and generally quite ridiculous not to take it into account in the calculations.

Here, something else is much more interesting: with or without the remnants of production at Groningen, it is already clear that Europe can refuse to supply Russian pipeline gas only through mass deindustrialization.

And if they do not agree with this decision voluntarily, then it can be made by force.

It depends solely on the political will of senior comrades.

Or someone will be very surprised, for example, at the blowing up of a non-Turkish Stream, which many, excuse me, are now “wanting” about: for all the audacity of the performers, this is not so easy to do in the Black Sea purely technically.

Yes, and Erdogan is a much more zealous owner than the current German authorities.

But most importantly, this is simply not necessary: ​​it will be enough to tear off a piece of the Ukrainian GTS completely controlled by the “allies”: the effect for the energy of the continent will be even a little more concrete than a blow to the Turkish “branches”.

And purely politically it will be possible, if anything, to easily blame the Russians.

They won't believe it, of course.

But there are still chances.

Here, in fact, this is the new reality: Europe - no matter for what reasons, from earthquakes to "acts of sabotage" or, say, a military confrontation in northern Africa - is deprived not only of legal (through the same sanctions), but also purely physical access to energy carriers.

As a result, in the countries of the European subcontinent right now, one after another, enterprises are closed: energy resources are either expensive or simply physically inaccessible.

This means that production is unprofitable.

Other enterprises are hastily transferring capacities to the United States and China - here who prefers what.

Volkswagen, for example, is expanding production in America, while BMW is moving its capacities mainly to China.

This, in general, is equally unpleasant for the German automotive industry in any case: we are talking about the flagships and symbols of the German automotive industry.

What can we say about not so loud, but no less significant areas of European industry.

And what is the saddest thing here is that these are no longer even “close forecasts”, but what is happening directly and immediately here and now, in front of not only Europeans, but also of all astonished mankind.

A month and a half before winter.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.