The ballistic missile launched from North Korea on the morning of the 4th has the longest flight distance so far, and it is believed that it may be the same type as the Hwasong-12 medium-range ballistic missile class.
I summarized what kind of ballistic missile "Hwasong 12 type" is.
What is the range?
According to the Ministry of Defense, the Hwasong-12 medium-range ballistic missile is a liquid-fuel system with a range of about 5,000 kilometers.
A circle with a radius of 5,000 km centered on Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, includes Guam, where the US military base is located, and New Delhi, the capital of India.
On the other hand, some of the ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) that North Korea is developing have a range of over 10,000 km or 15,000 km, depending on the weight of the warhead. It has been.
10,000 km from Pyongyang includes Los Angeles and San Francisco in the United States, and drawing a circle of 15,000 km includes the entire United States.
4 shots fired so far
According to this year's defense white paper, North Korea has launched four "Hwasong-12" so far.
The first launch occurred five years ago, on May 14, 2017, when it fell east of the Korean Peninsula, about 400 kilometers outside Japan's exclusive economic zone.
It flew about 800 km in about 30 minutes, and the altitude is believed to have exceeded 2000 km, and it is estimated that it was a "lofted trajectory" that raised the launch angle and launched higher than usual.
If launched in a normal trajectory, the range is expected to reach a maximum of about 5,000 kilometers, and Guam, where the US military base is located, is within range.
The second time was on August 29, 2017.
It is estimated that it passed over the Oshima Peninsula and Cape Erimo in Hokkaido and fell into the Pacific Ocean about 1,180 km east of Cape Erimo.
The flight distance is about 2,700 km, and the maximum altitude is believed to have reached about 550 km above Cape Erimo.
The third time is September 15, 2017.
Like the second time, it is estimated that it passed over the Oshima Peninsula and Cape Erimo and fell into the Pacific Ocean about 2200 km east of Cape Erimo.
The flight range reached about 3,700 km, 1,000 km longer than the August launch.
The maximum altitude was also estimated to be around 800 km, 250 km higher than the August launch.
And the fourth time is January 30th.
It is estimated that it was launched from the interior of North Korea and fell into the Sea of Japan outside Japan's EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone).
The flight time was about 30 minutes, the flight distance was about 800 km, the maximum altitude reached about 2000 km, and it is believed to have been launched on a "lofted trajectory".
Also, if the missile at this time was launched in a normal trajectory, the maximum range is expected to reach about 5,000 km.
Regarding medium-range ballistic missiles, North Korea repeatedly launched missiles called "Musudan" in 2016, but failed to launch twice in a row in October of this year. Mars 12" appears to be in the process of being put into practical use, and it is possible that it is in the production stage.
Planned to launch around Guam five years ago
North Korea announced in August 2017 that it was considering a plan to launch ballistic missiles toward the area around Guam when tensions with the Trump administration in the United States rose.
Among them, the Strategic Command, which is responsible for the operation of ballistic missiles in the North Korean military, will simultaneously launch four Hwasong-12 medium-range ballistic missiles toward the vicinity of Guam, where US military strategic bombers are deployed. He said he was considering it.
He also mentioned Japan, saying, "It will pass over Japan's Shimane, Hiroshima and Kochi prefectures, fly a distance of 3356.7 kilometers for 1065 seconds, and then fall into the sea 30 to 40 kilometers around Guam." and announced the flight route.
Three weeks later, during US-South Korea joint military exercises, North Korea launched a "Hwasong-12" from the outskirts of the capital, Pyongyang, in the form of passing over Hokkaido, and General Secretary Kim Jong-un said, " The training is a prelude to contain the enemy's base on Guam Island.In the future, we should conduct more ballistic missile launch training targeting the Pacific Ocean."
In response, then U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis indicated that if a direct hit to Guam was predicted, the U.S. would intercept it, and said, ``If the missile were aimed at the U.S., it would escalate into a war all at once.'' I was strongly restrained.
Expert ``Estimated that this flight distance will reach Guam''
Professor Shunji Hiraiwa of Nanzan University, who is familiar with the situation in North Korea, commented on North Korea's aim in launching ballistic missiles this time, saying, "The first conservative government in five years, the Yoon Sung-ryeol administration, was established, and the US-South Korea joint military Exercises and joint exercises between Japan, the United States, and South Korea were also held, and as the three countries solidified their solidarity, it seems to have been launched as a political message."
He added, "It is estimated that the flight this time will reach Guam, where the US base is located, and it seems that the training is aimed at creating a more systematic and precise system that takes into account US forces stationed in South Korea and US forces stationed in Japan." He said that he was aiming to check the United States.
Regarding North Korea's future course of action, he said, "Until the U.S. midterm elections, there is a possibility that North Korea will not respond to dialogue and will launch a wide variety of missiles, such as ballistic missiles with irregular trajectories and SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles), in accordance with its policy of strengthening national defense capabilities." In addition, there is also the risk of conducting nuclear tests."