Moscow will no longer take the first steps towards the West in the matter of negotiations to end the Ukrainian conflict.

This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

“We do not refuse negotiations.

And when appropriate proposals come in, we do not refuse.

If our partners want to “quietly” meet so that no one knows about it, please.

Talking is always better than not talking.

But in the situation in which we are now, Russia simply will not take any first steps, ”the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said at a press conference at the UN headquarters.

A rather harsh statement, considering that all these months Moscow has constantly demonstrated its readiness to peacefully resolve all contradictions over Ukraine (on the basis, of course, of solving the tasks that President Putin set before the start of a special military operation, that is, denazification, demilitarization, etc. . P.).

However, it is not harsh for those who remember Lavrov's earlier words about what Kyiv's further delay in the negotiation process will lead to.

“When they deign to turn to us with a proposal to resume the diplomatic process (which, as I understand it, the Europeans are urgently asking them, but the Anglo-Saxons do not allow this), we will see what the situation is “on the ground,” the minister said in June .

And now the situation "on the ground" has changed.

And above all, it has changed thanks to the referendums held in the liberated territories.

Referenda, as a result of which (if the people, of course, vote "for") the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, return to their native "Russian harbor".

The annexation of the liberated territories to Russia becomes a kind of point of no return.

Moscow will no longer be able to negotiate the return of these territories to the control of the Kyiv regime.

The very fact of these negotiations will already be a violation of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, since the country's fundamental law prohibits even talking about the rejection of the regions of the Russian Federation.

This means that Western countries and Ukraine will either have to negotiate with us on the terms of Kyiv's refusal of the Donbass and part of the Black Sea region, or not to negotiate at all.

And it is obvious that the second option will be chosen - after all, today neither Ukraine nor the West are ready to admit the loss of Kyiv's control over the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

Yes, some time ago modest voices were heard there that it would be necessary to negotiate with Putin on the condition of recognizing the current territorial status quo (until he “captured” Nikolaev, Kharkov and other regions), but the successful counteroffensive of Ukraine in Kharkov area inspired the Kyiv regime and Western leaders, after which these conversations subsided.

Perhaps now, after the announcement of partial mobilization by Russia, the pendulum will swing in the opposite direction: the West is gradually realizing that Moscow, in Putin's words, "is already starting in earnest."

However, the movement of the pendulum is just beginning.

Peace talks are also becoming unlikely because Russia is reuniting with regions that have not been fully liberated.

The entry into the Russian Federation of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Zaporozhye region means that Moscow will liberate those territories of these regions that are currently occupied by Ukraine.

In particular, the cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Seversk, as well as the capital of the Zaporozhye region - the city of Zaporozhye.

This means that in order to peacefully resolve the conflict, Ukraine must give these territories to the Russian Federation, because, as noted above, the Russian authorities cannot negotiate the surrender of part of the territory of the Russian Federation.

Of course, someone will say that the way out of the situation may be to “freeze the conflict” based on the current status quo.

And someone says this - there are rumors that such a frost will take place in autumn and winter.

However, one must understand that the Russian Federation is a great power, and the status of a great power does not imply a long-term occupation of part of its state by another country.

Yes, here they will give an example of India, part of whose territories is occupied by China, but the PRC is, firstly, another great power and, secondly, a nuclear power.

That is, not Ukraine.

That is why the special military operation will continue at least until the complete liberation of the territories of the Russian Federation - otherwise Moscow will not be taken seriously in the world.

Finally, peace talks are unlikely because, according to many experts, Russia cannot complete a special military operation without the liberation of a number of other regions under Ukrainian control.

At least Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions (in order to increase the 400-kilometer “flight” distance from Ukrainian territory to Moscow), as well as Mykolaiv and Odessa regions.

And the last two areas are critically important for the Russian Federation.

Not only because they are waiting for Russia there.

Not only because the liberation of Odessa after the events of May 2014 (the burning of the House of Trade Unions) is the most important symbolic step.

And not only because these regions are today the only way out of the remnants of Ukraine to the Black Sea.

And therefore,

that Russia's control over these regions will allow it to gain land access to Transnistria.

A self-proclaimed republic in which approximately half a million citizens of the Russian Federation live and which is guarded by several thousand of our military.

Now Transnistria is sandwiched between the Odessa region of Ukraine and Moldova, of which it is formally a part.

And if everything remains in this form, then literally a few years after the end of the special military operation, the West will arrange for Moscow a military crisis in Transnistria, when Moldova, with the help of Ukraine and Romania, decides to "restore its territorial integrity."

And in this situation, the only way for the Russian Federation to come to the aid of its citizens and the military will be the throw of the RF Armed Forces to Pridnestrovie through Ukrainian territory, that is, those same Nikolaev and Odessa regions.

However, over these few years, Ukraine will be rearmed, the army will be retrained and help build a solid line of defense in those regions.

Therefore, either a part of the peace talks will be the provision of a territorial corridor for Transnistria that is not controlled by Ukraine (for example, to the south - to the Black Sea, according to the same principle by which Azerbaijan is now trying to get a corridor to Nakhichevan), or Russia will have to organize this corridor itself.

There is no third option in the form, for example, of any guarantees from the West about the inviolability of Transnistria.

The United States can now promise us three boxes (as they promised in matters of non-expansion of NATO, compliance with the Minsk agreements, the grain deal, etc.), and then simply deceive us.

And we are no longer happy to be deceived.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.