[Explanation] A few days ago, India, the world's largest rice exporter, announced that from September 9, it will impose a 20% export tax on rice other than parboiled rice and basmati rice, and prohibit the export of broken rice.
Will this move affect the price of rice in the international market?
How does it affect our country?
In this regard, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Academy of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, and Li Guoxiang, a researcher of the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, made an interpretation.
[Concurrent] Li Guoxiang, researcher at the Institute of Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
In the international grain market, the price of wheat has risen, the price of corn has risen, and the price of rice has been falling in recent years.
The main (reason) for this situation is that the supply of rice is relatively surplus, and India's rice was also relatively surplus last year.
This year, due to some unfavorable factors such as drought, the output of paddy is estimated to decline, so in order to ensure the stability of this domestic supply and price (India), they impose tariffs, and he mainly pays domestic tariffs. A regulation of the market.
Domestic reduction of exports ensures the stability of this supply and price in his own country.
[Explanation] Experts said that as the world's largest rice exporter, India's move may change the pattern of global rice trade, and prices may rise slightly, but in the medium and long term, prices will not change much.
[Concurrent] Li Guoxiang, researcher at the Institute of Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The global trade volume of rice is about 50 million tons every year, of which India exports about 20 million tons.
Compared with wheat, corn, etc., the annual trade scale is about 200 million tons.
Then there is less rice.
India's imposition of tariffs will inhibit the export of Indian rice, and will change the global rice supply and demand, especially the pattern of trade, and there may be some small rebounds in rice prices in the future.
[Concurrent] Bai Ming, Deputy Director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce
It will be difficult for the price of rice to rise because India has taken measures to restrict the export of rice. However, we have seen countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar eager to try.
There may be this price increase factor, but soon the production capacity of other countries will make up for the grain.
In general, it will have a certain impact on international food prices, but in the medium and long term, the impact is controllable.
[Explanation] Experts believe that the rise in rice prices will increase the economic burden for low-income and food-deficit countries, but India's move will not affect my country's rice supply structure, and the impact on my country's rice prices is minimal.
[Concurrent] Li Guoxiang, researcher at the Institute of Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The impact on China can be said to be minimal.
Why, the first is that China's rice imports are very small in total.
The country we import rice every year is five million tons at high times, and only more than three million tons at low times.
The domestic output of this rice is more than 200 million tons. If it is converted into rice, we have 1.3 to 1.5 billion tons. The domestic supply is quite loose.
Then the second one is that we import rice. In addition to India, many countries in Southeast Asia have a large number of supply sources, so it depends on who has the lower price and which has better quality.
[Concurrent] Bai Ming, Deputy Director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce
We have also attached great importance to food security these years.
We emphasize that the rice bowl is in our own hands, and we will stick to the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land.
Some imports of grain are just a matter of adjusting surplus and shortage, so this will also have an impact on us, but the impact is not too great, because the proportion is not large.
Plus we have a grain reserve system, which is ballast.
(Reported by Li Jiali in Beijing)
Responsible editor: [Li Ji]