Popular science｜May be four times in my country, what kind of typhoon is "Plum Blossom" IV
This year's No. 12 typhoon "Plum Blossom" was a resounding hit, landing twice on the coasts of Zhejiang and Shanghai overnight.
The movement path of typhoon "Plum".
Produced by the Central Meteorological Observatory at 18:00 on September 15
It not only became the strongest typhoon to land in my country this year, but also the strongest typhoon to land in Zhoushan, Zhejiang and Shanghai since 1949.
People in the free shipping area are no strangers to its previous life, the "Plum Blossom" II in 2011.
At that time, "Plum Blossom" II also pointed directly at East China. Although he missed his appointment three times and did not land in my country in the end, it still brought obvious wind and rain to the Yangtze River Delta region.
In contrast, this year's "Plum Blossom" IV was refreshing and went straight to the Yangtze River Delta.
The amazing thing is that it still has a huge circulation after the "Brace", and it will also climb three times in Shandong, and maybe even four times in Liaoning.
What kind of typhoon is "Mei IV"?
Resolute and resolute
On the morning of September 8, this year's No. 12 typhoon "Plum Blossom" was generated.
At the beginning of its birth, it was regarded as a strong player, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in the path.
"Plum Blossom" played steadily at sea and became stronger step by step.
In the early morning of September 11, it strengthened to a strong typhoon level, and the typhoon eye was clearly visible.
On the same day, its path was obviously westward, and as it got closer, the possibility of landing in East China became more and more likely.
However, on September 12, the "Plum Blossom" moved slowly and hovered, and the deep cold water turned up, which weakened the intensity.
At the same time, Typhoon No. 13 "Miao Bai" suddenly formed. Although it is located deep in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and has little impact on our country, its formation has undoubtedly increased the complexity of the maritime plot.
In the early morning of September 13, "Plum Blossom" moved into the warm southern waters of the East China Sea and re-strengthened to a strong typhoon level at 5 a.m.
At this time, its goal is more clear, and the speed goes straight to the "free shipping area".
This time, "Plum Blossom" is aggressive. Although it is not big, it has "Cazilan's big eyes", the structure is symmetrical, and the cloud system is tight and thick.
Before the typhoon arrives, the wind and rain come first.
Affected by the combination of the typhoon body, the typhoon's north side trough and the cold air, obvious rainfall began on September 12.
According to statistics from the Central Meteorological Observatory, since September 12, the cumulative rainfall in central and northern Zhejiang, Shanghai, southeastern Jiangsu, and central and northern Taiwan Island has reached 50-150 mm, and the localized rainfall in Ningbo, Shaoxing and Zhoushan in Zhejiang and the northern part of Taiwan Island is 250-450 mm. mm, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, Shangyu, Shengzhou, 542-592 mm; 7-8 gusts in eastern Zhejiang, northern coast of Fujian, Shanghai coast, southeastern coast of Jiangsu, Shandong Peninsula coast, 9-11 magnitude along Zhejiang coast, some islands and reefs Up to 12 to 15 levels.
Wherever he went, it was stormy.
Around 20:30 p.m. on September 14, "Plum Blossom" landed on the coast of Putuo, Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province in full view. When it landed, the maximum wind force near the center was 14, which was a strong typhoon.
"Plum Blossom" became the first typhoon to land in East China this year, far exceeding the intensity of the first three typhoons that landed in my country this year.
Then, it accelerated its pace, sneaked into Shanghai in the middle of the night, and landed again on the coast of Fengxian around 0:30 a.m. on September 15, setting a new historical record again - becoming the strongest typhoon to land in Shanghai since 1949.
After two and a half hours of raiding more than 80 kilometers, the center of "Plum Blossom" traversed the entire Shanghai from southeast to northwest, and left gracefully on the morning of September 15.
Although "Plum Blossom" has weakened to a strong tropical storm level at this time, its circulation form is still intact, and the pressure is still exerted on Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning and Jilin.
Past and Present
Generally speaking, after a typhoon makes landfall, its vitality will be greatly damaged, but why is "Plum Blossom" so unique, and can continue to penetrate into the inland after landing?
"It is mainly due to the weather and the favorable location." Hu Xiao, chief meteorological analyst at China Weather Network, analyzed that "Plum Blossom" itself is strong, and it was a strong typhoon when it first landed.
At the same time, it goes north along the coastline of East China, and half of the main structure is still at sea, so the water vapor from the sea is continuously transported to the land while walking, and there is still sufficient water vapor after landing.
Not only that, it also has a younger brother to cheer, the No. 14 typhoon "Nanmadu" is located on the east side of "Plum Blossom", and it uses the "southeast wind" to transport water vapor to it.
It seems that there are many factors behind a powerful typhoon.
For the people of the free shipping area, the last powerful "plum blossom" can be traced back to 2011.
Due to the recycling of typhoon names, this year's typhoon "Plum Blossom" is strictly speaking "Plum Blossom" IV, and the "Plum Blossom" in 2011 is "Plum Blossom" II.
The Central Meteorological Observatory said that the "Mei II" at that time also reached the intensity of a super typhoon, which also pointed directly to East China, and was nicknamed "Mei Chaofeng".
At that time, the sea was also very lively, and the three dances danced together, so the prediction of the path of "Plum Blossom" caused the forecaster to lose a lot of hair.
It was originally predicted that "Mei II" would land in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Liaoning in China, but he missed his appointment three times and chose to go north in my country's coastal waters, and finally landed in North Korea, also known as "Three Lanes of Plum Blossoms".
This year's "Plum Blossom" is aimed at East China, but it is a short cut. After the "Plum Blossom" is not enough, it will be three or even four.
The Central Meteorological Observatory mentioned that it always feels that "Mei IV" still has the memory of "Mei II", with similar appearance and path, and the landing site is the same as last time.
Following "Plum Blossom", this year's No. 13 typhoon "Miao Bai" was born on September 12.
Compared with the "Plum Blossom" and "Miao Bo" in 2011, the positions of the two are almost replicas of that year.
Especially "Miao Bo", the birthplaces of 2011 and 2022 are super close.
As for "Mei I" and "Mei III", they did not leave any traces in the history of typhoons.
"May I" was born in the middle of winter in 2004, and did nothing.
"Mei III" was the first typhoon in 2017, and it was born out of time and ended hastily.
Compared with "Plum Blossoms" 123, "Plum Blossoms" IV's strength is really outstanding.
"Plum Blossom" or will be on the four of our country
For Shanghai, there were two autumn typhoons in ten days, and neither of them was an easy-going character.
Looking back at this year's No. 11 typhoon "Xuan Lannuo", the Northwest Pacific "Wind King" has not taken an unusual path since the moment he was born.
According to Han Ning, chief service officer of the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, "Xuan Lannuo" has been upgraded from a tropical storm level to a super typhoon level in just 36 hours since the report was compiled, and the maximum wind force in the center reached level 17. Very rare.
Moreover, its trend is very complicated. After being subjected to different guided airflows at different stages, it presents a peculiar "V-shaped" trend.
After annexing the tropical depression, "Xuan Lan Nuo" became huge and full-fledged, with a diameter of about 1,000 kilometers.
Later, it crossed the same latitude on the sea more than 300 kilometers away from Shanghai, and finally landed on the southern coast of South Korea, and its peripheral circulation was still "dumped" to Shanghai.
In contrast, the growth of "Plum Blossom" is quite satisfactory, and the size is also much smaller.
Although it is lower in intensity than "Xuan Lan Nuo", it is in close contact with Shanghai.
Especially Shanghai is on the right side of its direction of travel, and the overall wind and rain impact it brings to Shanghai is much stronger than that of "Xuan Lannuo".
Judging from the absolute path, "Plum Blossom" has found a friend - the typhoon "Fireworks" in 2021.
Both landed in Zhoushan for the first time and landed for the second time in the free shipping area, which brought obvious wind and rain effects to the Yangtze River Delta region.
The Shanghai Meteorological Bureau compared the two and found that "fireworks" are quite chronic.
"Fireworks" was generated at 2:00 on July 18, 2021, and it only took 7 days to stroll around the sea.
After landing in Putuo, Zhoushan, I spent another night in Hangzhou Bay, but refused to move. The next day I landed in Pinghu, Zhejiang for the second time, about 21 hours after the first landing.
As a result, the wind and rain brought by "fireworks" to Shanghai lasted for a long time. In terms of rainfall, "fireworks" beat "Plum Blossoms".
The "Plum Blossom" is resolute. Although it was once stuck at sea by the subtropical high pressure on the east and west rings and moved slowly, it began to speed up when it approached the east coast of China, and it came and went quickly.
In terms of landing intensity, "Plum Blossom" is still better, setting a new record for "Fireworks" landing in Zhoushan.
The maximum wind force near the center of "Fireworks" was 13 when it landed, while "Plum Blossom" was 14 when it made landfall, and it was still 12 when it landed for the second time. It is the strongest typhoon that has landed in Zhoushan, Zhejiang and Shanghai since 1949.
"Fireworks" and "Plum Blossoms" both have tenacious lives. The life history of "Fireworks" is 13 days, which is more than twice the average lifespan of typhoons. It has been selected as one of the top ten weather and climate events in China in 2021.
Even though "Plum Blossom" has completed its second landfall, its structure is still intact and its circulation is still huge. About 15 hours after the landfall, it still maintains the level of a severe tropical storm.
According to the Central Meteorological Observatory's news at 18:00 on September 15, "Plum Blossom" is currently on the southern coast of the Yellow Sea and will make landfall again today (September 15) from Huangdao to Haiyang in Shandong (tropical storm level, 18-23 meters). /sec, level 8-9), and will move into the Bohai Strait in the morning of tomorrow (September 16), and will land again along the coast from Lushun to Zhuanghe, Liaoning around tomorrow evening (tropical storm level, 18-23 m/s, 8-9), and then gradually degenerated into an extratropical cyclone.
China Weather Network said that if "Plum Blossom" makes landfall in Liaoning, it will be the latest typhoon to land in the northeast (except for the typhoon that has previously affected the northeast); and it is the third typhoon to complete four landings in my country since 1950, and the first time Take the route of "Zhejiang-Shanghai-Shandong-Liaoning" four times.
In this case, "Plum Blossom" can also be regarded as a miracle in the life history of typhoons.