It's always very hot in the desert, that's a fact.

But the gap is only widening with the rest of the globe, which is nevertheless warming up on all sides.

As a result, the Middle East is warming at nearly twice the rate of the global average with potentially devastating effects for its people and economies, a new climate study shows.

The study covers the region stretching from Greece to Egypt via Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

It revealed an average increase of 0.45 degrees Celsius per decade in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, based on data collected from 1981 to 2019, when the global average increase was 0.27 degrees per decade. decade.

400 million inhabitants facing “extreme heat waves, prolonged droughts”

In the absence of immediate changes, the region is expected to warm by five degrees Celsius by the end of the century, which could exceed "critical thresholds of human adaptability" in some countries, the study warns.

As a result, the region's more than 400 million people are at risk of extreme heat waves, prolonged droughts and rising sea levels, says this study, to which many authors contributed. and published two months before the UN Climate Conference (COP27) which will take place in Egypt.

Populations “will face major health and livelihood challenges, including disadvantaged communities, the elderly and pregnant women,” says Jos Lelieveld, of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute, two entities that contributed to the study.

Major greenhouse gas emitter

The Middle East is not only likely to suffer severely from climate change, but also to be a major contributor to it, the study continues.

It shows that this oil-rich region could soon become one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions and thus overtake the European Union within a few years.

“Since the repercussions of climate change go beyond borders, closer collaboration between the countries concerned is essential to deal with the harmful effects of this phenomenon”, adds Jos Lelieveld.

George Zittis, one of the authors of the study, warns that an expansion of arid zones and a rise in sea level will "lead to significant changes in coastal zones and agriculture", particularly in the Delta of the Nile, Egypt.

According to the study, "virtually all" areas of life will be "seriously affected" by hotter and drier climates.

This will potentially contribute to an increase in the death rate and exacerbate “inequalities between the wealthy and the poorest” in the region.

In November, representatives from nearly 200 countries are due to gather for COP27 in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on the Red Sea to follow up on the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to contain global warming below +2°C by 2100, and if possible below +1.5°C.

However, the planet has warmed on average by nearly 1.2 degrees since the pre-industrial era.

And in May the United Nations World Meteorological Organization said there was a one in two chance that this 1.5 degree limit would be reached within the next five years.

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