"Between now and the next 10 years, the 'post-60s' group will continue to enter retirement"--Recently, the discussion on the number of retired people has become a hot search on the Internet.
Faced with the reality of the deepening aging of China's society, people's attention to the word "retirement" has also extended to topics such as public service supply and social pension system.
How large is the Chinese retiree population at present?
What impact will it bring to economic and social development?
What preparations have been made for the construction of the pension system?
China has passed its first period of rapid population aging
"There are a lot of people born in 1962." "Compared with the previous two years, there are significantly more old colleagues who retire this year"... In some enterprises and institutions, there is a tendency for retirees to increase this year and next.
If the annual birth rate and the total population announced by the National Bureau of Statistics are used to calculate the number of births each year, and then simply calculate this number of births, the number of people entering their 60s in the country was less than 12 million last year, more than 20 million this year, and is expected to be close to that next year. 30 million.
Reflected in real life, the number of retirees may increase significantly.
So, how to understand the size of China's retired population in the future?
The number of births remains an important reference indicator.
Yuan Xin, a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University and vice-chairman of the China Population Society, told this reporter that based on the birth rate and total population published by the National Bureau of Statistics over the years, since the founding of New China in 1949, there have been 37 years in which the birth population exceeded 20 million. , these 37 years constituted 3 birth peaks.
The first peak was from 1950 to 1958, during which there were six years in which the number of births exceeded 20 million.
The second peak was from 1962 to 1975, with an annual birth population exceeding 20 million, of which it reached its peak in 1963, approaching 30 million.
The third peak was from 1981 to 1997, with an annual birth population exceeding 20 million.
"If we push back by 60 years, this year corresponds to 1962, the starting year of the second birth peak." Yuan Xin said, this is also the main reason why the number of retired people has attracted a lot of attention recently.
However, at present, China mainly implements the retirement age of 60 for male cadres and employees, 55 for female cadres and 50 for female employees.
In other words, a considerable number of women born around 1962 had retired five years ago or earlier.
In addition, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that by the end of 2021, the national population will be 1,412.6 million, including 914.25 million permanent residents in urban areas and 498.35 million in rural areas.
The nearly 500 million rural population does not have a strict retirement system and concept.
"Theoretically speaking, the peak of birth may not necessarily correspond to the peak of retirement." Lu Jiehua, a professor of Peking University's Department of Sociology and vice president of the China Population Society, said in an interview with this reporter that only when the social system and other constants do not change, birth When the scale characteristics are obvious and the duration is long enough, the number of retired population will show a corresponding change trend, which is a normal process of demographic changes.
Many experts also believe that with reference to indicators such as the number of births, it is an indisputable fact that the scale of the retired population will expand with the deepening of the aging of China's society.
In fact, in the past 10 years, China has passed the first period of rapid population aging.
According to the seventh national census data, in 2020, the total number of elderly people aged 60 and over in mainland China will be 264 million, accounting for 18.7% of the total population.
In the 10 years from the "six people" in 2010 to the "seven people" in 2020, the increase in the population aged 60 and above was significantly higher than that in the previous 10 years.
Zhai Zhenwu, a professor at the Population and Development Research Center of Renmin University of China, believes that this is mainly related to the fact that the population cohort formed by the first birth peak in the 1950s has entered old age one after another.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the larger population cohort formed by the second birth peak in the 1960s will successively enter the old age.
The scale of retirement is expanding, and there are many positive factors
What are the implications of an increase in the retirement population?
For many experts who have long studied demography, there are challenges, but not too much tension.
Lu Jiehua said that the increase in the number of retired people means that the whole society needs to pay more pensions, which puts forward higher requirements for the social pension service system.
The aging of the population will also have a long-term impact on economic and social development.
In addition, many people have noticed that the supply of labor has decreased in recent years.
According to data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the number of working-age population in China has been declining since 2012, with an average annual decrease of more than 3 million, and it is expected that it will decrease by 35 million during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
"The deepening of social aging is the law of demographic development." Yuanxin believes that the aging trend cannot be changed, but this phenomenon itself is not a problem, only when it does not match economic and social development.
"What should be paid attention to now is how to further promote high-quality economic and sustainable social development while the degree of aging is deepening."
Although the size of the retiree population is expanding, there are many positive factors on the whole.
——On the whole, they are still “strong in their youth”.
The relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics clearly stated in the interpretation of the "seven people" data in 2020 that China's working-age population aged 16-59 is 880 million, and the labor force resources are still abundant; the average age of the population is 38.8 years old.
- The number of young elderly people is considerable.
Last year, China's average life expectancy passed the 78-year-old threshold, and China has indeed entered the "era of longevity".
The 2020 "Seven People Population" data shows that among the elderly population aged 60 and above in China, the younger age population aged 60-69 accounts for 55.83%. .
- The educational level of the elderly population has increased.
The elderly who are currently and will retire in the future are mostly entering the labor market after the reform and opening up, and their education level and work skills have been greatly improved than before.
According to the 2020 "Seven Population Population" data, among the population aged 60 and above, there are 36.69 million people with a high school education or above, accounting for 13.9%, an increase of 4.98 percentage points from 10 years ago.
At the same time, the average years of education of the working-age population aged 16-59 in China has increased to 10.75 years.
"In the past, we only relied on the scale of the labor force, but now the quality of the labor force is higher, which can further transform the disadvantage of aging structure into the advantage of high-quality development." Lu Jiehua said.
——The transformation and upgrading of social industries has been accelerated.
On the one hand, the level of mechanization, industrial digitization, and intelligence has been greatly improved, and the industrial structure has been upgraded. "This reduces the entire society's dependence on manual labor, and social employment is more inclusive of age." Yuan Xin said.
On the other hand, the income level of retirees has been higher than before, and the consumption of elderly products and services has expanded, which is conducive to promoting technological progress and driving the development of the elderly industry.
——China has built the world's largest social security system. As of the end of June this year, the number of people participating in basic old-age insurance nationwide has reached 1.04 billion.
Over the years, the national basic pension has continued to rise, and this year it has been raised again by 4%, benefiting hundreds of millions of retirees.
Allocating state-owned assets to enrich the social security fund and the central adjustment fund system and other major reform measures to escort the stable and sustainable operation of the old-age insurance fund.
The 2021 National Social Security Fund Annual Report released on August 18 shows that by the end of 2021, the total assets of the social security fund will exceed 3 trillion yuan, reaching 3,019.81 billion yuan.
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has repeatedly emphasized that there is no problem with pensions being paid on time and in full.
Many experts said that actively adapting to the population development trend and tapping the hidden opportunities will be the focus for a long time in the future.
"Rich while growing old", turning challenges into opportunities
Tianjin dialect, Northeast dialect, Shandong dialect... Voice search, dialect can also be understood.
Recently, a well-known shopping website in China has launched a dialect voice search function, which saves the elderly the trouble of handwriting and typing when shopping online and realizes easy shopping.
There are no advertisements, no pop-up windows, clean interface, and clear operation. A number of mobile APPs have also launched "suitable versions" tailored for the elderly, making it more convenient for the elderly to operate smartphones.
At present, more and more enterprises and brands are exploring new development space around the "silver economy".
This is a microcosm of the whole society's active response to the trend of population aging.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to implement a national strategy to actively respond to population aging.
At present, relevant policy adjustments have been introduced or are being planned.
While the number of retirees has been hotly debated, the topic of delaying retirement has re-emerged.
In recent decades, most countries have raised the retirement age to varying degrees. Currently, the retirement age in the world's major economies is generally over 65 years old.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to gradually delay the statutory retirement age in accordance with the principles of small-step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified advancement, and overall consideration, so as to promote the full utilization of human resources.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security previously introduced that they are working with relevant departments to study specific reform plans.
The plan should learn from common international practices and experience, but also fully consider the actual national conditions, cultural traditions, and historical evolution. It will fully absorb opinions and suggestions from all walks of life, and obtain the greatest common divisor to ensure that the plan is scientifically feasible and stable.
In response to the pension issue for retirees that some people worry about, the institutional system is constantly being improved.
In April this year, the General Office of the State Council announced the "Opinions on Promoting the Development of Individual Pensions", marking the official introduction of the third pillar individual pension system.
Participating in personal pensions can add an additional pension accumulation on the basis of the first and second pillars of pension insurance to further improve the income level and quality of life of the elderly.
At the press conference in the second quarter of this year, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security made it clear that it will formulate supporting policies with relevant departments to determine the pilot cities for the personal pension system.
Ou Xiaoli, director of the Social Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently that from an international horizontal comparison, China's current aging process is generally comparable to its economic development level.
With the continuous improvement of people's living standards, China's aging will be further deepened. By the middle of this century, it will reach the level of major developed countries, but by then it will also become a powerful modern socialist country in an all-round way.
Therefore, this is a historical process of “getting rich while getting stronger and getting old”. While facing challenges, it also contains huge opportunities for development. We can completely transform the challenges of population aging into positive efforts to promote economic development, social progress and people’s happiness. factor.
Li Jie