The Taliban may boast of having defeated the Islamic State organization in Khorasan, the Afghan branch of the IS, the jihadist group has not ceased to recall for a year its power of nuisance, multiplying the deadly attacks mainly directed against the populations civilians or religious leaders.

The latest dates back to Thursday, August 11 with the assassination of Rahimullah Haqqani, a senior Taliban cleric, known for his fiery speeches against the Islamic State organization in Khorasan.

He had recently come out in favor of the schooling of young Afghan women.

A few days earlier, the terrorist group had claimed responsibility for a bomb attack in a Shiite neighborhood of Kabul in which eight people were killed and 18 others injured.

The attack targeted the Hazara community, a minority which represents between 10 and 20% of the 40 million Afghans, persecuted for a long time in this country with a Sunni majority.

Even if armed violence has generally decreased since the fall of the previous government, the bloody attacks attributed or claimed by the IS-K regularly mourn the country, undermining the Taliban promise made to the population and the international community of a quick return to order in Afghanistan.

“Greater freedom of action”

According to a tally by UNAMA, the United Nations Mission in Afghanistan, attacks targeting ethnic and religious minority communities left more than 700 dead and 1,400 injured in the country between mid-August 2021 and mid-June 2022. .

In this long litany of jihadist attacks, the suicide attack at Kabul airport on August 26, 2021 remains the deadliest.

That day, in the midst of the chaos caused by the Taliban's lightning offensive on the capital, a suicide bomber managed to blow himself up near an access door and then firearms shots caused the death of 185 people. , including 13 American soldiers.

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Established since 2015 in Afghanistan, particularly in the provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar, near the Pakistani border, the Islamic State organization in Khorasan was founded by Afghan and Pakistani Taliban cadres who pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the former head of the organization.

But the Afghan branch of the IS quickly suffered the effects of the double hunt led against its fighters by the former Afghan government supported by the United States and by the Taliban themselves.

For a year, the jihadist group has experienced a resurgence of activity, particularly in the northeast and east of the country and represents the main security challenge for the new masters of Kabul.

“We cannot say that there has been a strengthening of OEI-K, but the group has enjoyed greater freedom of action since the departure of the Americans,” said France 24 journalist Wassim Nasr, specialist in jihadist movements.

"If the Taliban had succeeded in countering the ISIS in insurrectional mode, the fight against terrorism in urban areas is another matter and we see that they have more difficulties in this area".

Stirring up ethnic divisions

With approximately 2,000 men before the departure of the Americans, according to the UN, it is impossible to assess today the strength of the OEI-K, whose "hard core is made up of desocialized and poorly educated young people from the areas rural", observes Myriam Benraad, professor of international relations at the Schiller International University and author of "Terrorism: the pangs of vengeance" (Ed. Cavalier bleu).

To win over new followers, the terror group plays heavily on ethnic divides in its propaganda and targets communities that might feel marginalized by the Taliban's rise to power - such as the Tajiks, the country's second largest ethnic group, accounting for around a quarter Population.

“With the Pashtuns in power in Kabul and supposedly under the protection of the Taliban, Daesh presented itself as the force to which the Tajiks could turn.

However, among these Tajiks are former special forces of the previous Afghan regime who have joined the ranks of the Islamic State", assures Didier Chaudet, associate researcher at the French Institute for Central Asian Studies (IFEAC). The researcher notes a disturbing similarity with the recruitment in Iraq of former members of Saddam Hussein's intelligence services.

>> To read: what does the Islamic State group really weigh against the Taliban?

The jihadist group is also seeking to swell its ranks by recruiting foreign fighters from Central Asia, but also the most radical members of the Haqqani family and tribal network, closely linked to Al-Qaeda but part of the Taliban.

In general, the IS-K strives to exploit internal divisions within the Taliban, divided between radical ideologues hostile to any compromise with the West and pragmatists ready to make concessions to establish the international credibility of their government.

"There are a number of Taliban who are not satisfied that the movement rejects the logic of global jihad and who are very tempted by the Islamic State narrative," said Myriam Benraad.

"We lack hindsight to know if these disappointed Taliban have started to bail out the ranks of the OEI", nuance Wassim Nasr.

"Especially since the Taliban remain generally faithful to themselves. The only thing on which they have compromised concerns the protection of the Shiites. It is on this point that the OEI continues to press in its propaganda. to show that the Taliban are 'false Muslims'”.

The dream of a new caliphate

Despite its strong power of nuisance and an ability to carry out spectacular violent actions, OEI-K is far from being able to reconstitute a territorial base in Afghanistan.

"The OEI-K acts in a terrorist mode but has never succeeded in reconstituting a territory, which is a real indicator", explains Wassim Nasr.

"They did not control the eastern provinces enough to be able to establish governance there, as we saw in Iraq or Syria. Moreover, the massive murders of civilians made them very unpopular with the population. Afghan", confirms Myriam Benraad.

Still, the OEI-K finds in Afghanistan fertile ground for its development in the years to come: a country fragmented by ethnic tensions, an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and a degraded security situation.

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"If the pressure of economic and social problems leads to the collapse of Taliban power, then the most radical forces could join the Islamic State in Khorasan. The worst that can happen in the coming years is a territorial rebirth of Daesh and this is one of the objectives of the organization", assures Didier Chaudet.

"The main security danger for Afghanistan, its neighbors and the international community is neither the Taliban nor Al-Qaeda but the Islamic State organization in Khorasan".

To prevent the establishment of a terrorist sanctuary on their doorstep, the regional powers are closely monitoring the development of the situation and have sought to maintain correct relations with the Taliban since their return to the helm.

In October 2021, Moscow notably hosted a major international conference – around ten countries took part, including China, Iran and Pakistan – an initiative intended to integrate the Taliban into the diplomatic game, in parallel with the Doha discussions with the United States.

In the eyes of the international community, the Taliban appear as a lesser evil to stem the hegemonic will of the OEI-K.

"It's a negotiating card for the Taliban", analyzes Myriam Benraad.

"However, there are significant doubts about the real relations that unite the jihadist groups with the most radical fringes of the Taliban favorable to global jihad", as recalled by the presence of Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al -Qaeda, in the heart of the Afghan capital.

He was killed in late July by an American drone strike.

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