Perhaps the inexorable thesis that, given the current trends, the German energy sector, and with it the entire economy, are currently on the very edge of an almost inevitable catastrophe, is certainly understood and even indirectly recognized by almost all German politicians, including the most notorious "Atlantists".
Moreover, even the Greens are already openly talking about this, whom the caustic German journalists - albeit in an undertone, you can’t chat too actively there now - are almost openly called exclusively “the youth German wing of the US Democratic Party”.
And the reasons here, in general, are quite understandable: the signs of future terrible events are already so obvious even to an ordinary European layman that they still cannot be hidden.
And when, for example, Michael Kretschmer, an influential German politician, one of the leaders of the CDU and the prime minister of the federal state of Saxony, which is key for local politics, states in an interview with Die Zeit that Germany will not be able to refuse Russian gas for at least the next five years, he, just believe me, least of all thinks about what will happen in these declared “five years”.
Here, as the well-known oriental parable says, either the donkey will die, or the padishah will pass away.
And Michael Kretschmer is somewhat not up to fat here, he wonders how the federal state of Saxony entrusted to him by voters, sorry, will survive at least the next winter: this is the question for the Saxon prime minister at the current time looks much more relevant.
And, alas, it is easy to calculate why.
Even if you just look at the current situation: yesterday, for example, it became known that the so-called average monthly settlement price (used, in particular, with a three-month lag to recalculate the price in “long contracts”) for gas on the European stock exchange in July jumped by almost 50 % - from $1180 to $1805 per cubic meter.
And it is quite obvious that if the level of supplies from Russia to Europe remains low, there is absolutely no need to expect a decrease in gas prices.
Therefore, by the way, the Russian Gazprom, with the acceptance of the long-suffering turbine from Siemens, can not be in a hurry, but act thoughtfully and, as they say, “according to the protocol”: in the fall, the Germans will still buy the same gas from it.
Just for a slightly different price.
And there, in Germany, now everything is expected to be completely unhappy.
And the Saxon prime minister, by no means out of masochistic considerations, separately noted that his compatriots are not yet even aware of the consequences of the increase in prices for blue fuel - it doesn’t matter if they come from Russia, Norway, Groningen or even American LNG.
And he once again emphasized that in his country - a country until recently of almost exemplary prosperity - they began to talk about the need to create heating points so that "people do not have to freeze in their apartments" (c): somehow it’s not at all up to fun, sorry.
And when Mikhail Kretschmer warns that “our entire economic system is in danger of collapse,” he is irreproachably right.
Moreover, this is also understood on the, so to speak, “opposite political flank” (Kretschmer is an influential conservative, a member of the CDU).
So, again, for example, members of the left German party Die Linke Alexander King and Konstantin Braun, judging by their article for the newspaper Der Freitag, are already in full swing preparing for social protests - it’s not very clear, warning or preparing to lead, but quite thoroughly and quite radical.
That's right, "protest moods" are growing very quickly in Germany and will become radicalized even faster, which is fully justified, including by sociological studies.
There is no need to invent anything here: in a recent poll, 44% of respondents said they would like to join demonstrations against rising energy prices and the cost of living "(c).
And it’s hard to argue here: if everything is so, then the numbers are quite impressive.
But nothing has really begun yet, and even autumn has not yet arrived.
And someday it will be winter.
Understand these not the most pleasant trends, of course, in the now ruling liberal-green coalition in Germany.
This is clearly seen even in the most complacent and “rosy” statements of the current government of Germany, which officially warns the population that a gas shortage this winter could lead to emergencies in certain regions of the country.
And the problem with gas will remain in Germany until 2024 at least (in the current conditions, when the operational situation is changing rapidly - the same fairy tale about the padishah and the donkey, by the way, the German authorities simply cannot help but understand this too).
And, in a way, he offers this population “because of the bad Russians” (in Germany they believe less and less in this fairy tale, by the way) to prepare for a threefold increase in the numbers in payments - at least in the columns “electricity” and “heat”.
And this, by the way, is the fundamental difference between realist politicians like Kretschmer and the current pro-American authorities in Berlin: if the realists are at least trying to do something, albeit rather timidly and clumsily, then the current authorities cannot and do not want to do anything special .
That is why they offer the population, as they say, to “take courage”: to wash less often (better with cold water), to heat the fireplace more often (if there is money for coal and firewood that are becoming more expensive) and to value work very, very much, which can easily be lost.
In a word, there are irreducible contradictions.
If more or less healthy and tied to the “land” German politicians offer, if not to solve the problem, then at least start a discussion around it, then the current red-green German coalition is simply conducting the necessary, from their point of view, psychological preparation of the population and business for inevitable.
Well, they can’t, according to the same Vice-Chancellor Habek, launch without the permission of the Americans - even for the sake of saving the national economy and the well-being of their own citizens - the brand new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is in impeccable technical condition.
Cthulhu does not allow them from across the ocean.
Therefore, dear Germans, you will have to freeze more and wash less often, and it is also better to forget about the icebahn with beer and stewed red cabbage: the unemployed cannot afford this icebahn of yours.
And in general, to nothing - the green alternative does not allow.
So it is better to immediately switch to high-protein crickets and other locusts.
And you, excuse me, do not need to hope for a sobering up of your politicians before the inevitable, for reasons beyond their control, cold snap.
And after that, you don't even need to.
They are there, even completely stubborn green ones, and they understand everything perfectly.
There, among this beau monde, of course, there are a lot of clowns, but there are definitely no mentally retarded among them.
Yes, and the level of education is quite sufficient for the simplest arithmetic, even Minister Burbock.
It’s just that they have other tasks that they are obliged to solve at any price paid by you, dear Germans: and say thank you that you are still paying this price not with blood, as is happening now in Ukraine.
And you know, we have such a well-known, quite common people, very politically incorrect, but extremely accurate saying: “whoever has dinner with a girl, he dances her” (c).
So, these girls are “dining”, it seems, it’s definitely not you.
And these tasks are assigned to your current bosses, respectively, by someone else.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.